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HOME›TEAMS›GEORGIA SOUTHERN›2024TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SUN BELT|CLAY HELTON|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
GEORGIA SOUTHERN76 FPISBC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
24FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#910 BC / 22
BC RATIO
6%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+0.8
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE41
PERFORMANCE41
TALENT39
CONTINUITY80
DEFENSE27
PERFORMANCE27
TALENT30
CONTINUITY79
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
43MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HBOISE STATE#8L 45-56457979-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7ANEVADA—W 20-17231313+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HSOUTH CAROLINA STATE—W 42-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 21AOLE MISS#11L 13-52869999-55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AGEORGIA STATE—W 38-213488+36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HMARSHALL—W 24-23425757-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HJAMES MADISON—W 28-14137070-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 24AOLD DOMINION—L 19-4772929+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2ASOUTH ALABAMA—W 34-30325555-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HTROY—L 20-28182929+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ACOASTAL CAROLINA—W 26-6342727+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HAPP STATE—W 29-20392626+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 19ASAM HOUSTON—L 26-31182727+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB50TAL61PERF50RET93ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
JC FRENCH IVQB SERET
★3★39693%+33HELD
5
DEXTER WILLIAMS IIQB SEPORTAL · INDIANA
★3★3417%-34HELD
2
TYLER BUDGEQB FRTRUE FR
★3★200%—FELL
10
DAVID DALLASQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
11
COLTON FITZGERALDQB SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
17
TREY TOWNSENDQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB40TAL41PERF40RET100ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
25
JALEN WHITERB SERET
★3—9352%+4—
22
OJ ARNOLDRB SERET
UNR—7827%+17—
6
DAVID MBADINGARB SERET
UNR—7120%-40—
5
TERRANCE GIBBSRB SERET
★4—181%-62—
30
ROBERT EDWARDS IIIRB SORET
UNR—00%——
28
J'SHAWN ANDERSONRB SORET
UNR—00%——
16
JAMARIAN SAMUELRB SERET
★3—00%——
35
TAEO TODDRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
31
BOOGIE WOODS IIIRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
33
BRYCE BAKERRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE54TAL47PERF53RET65ONE OWNERn=7 · 7 METRICS · 42 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
DERWIN BURGESS JR.WR SERET
★3—9829%+1—
7
TYLER FROMMTE SEPORTAL · AUBURN
★4★39155%-23FELL
4
LV BUNKLEY-SHELTONWR SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★4★38921%-26FELL
1
DALEN COBBWR SERET
UNR—8921%+22—
19
JOSH DALLASWR SERET
★3—8418%+29—
11
BEAU JOHNSONTE SERET
★3—6824%+12—
5
MARCUS SANDERS JR.WR SERET
UNR—554%-12—
83
ELIJA WALTONTE SORET
★3—499%——
87
EVAN LESTER JR.TE JURET
★3—467%-34—
4
DEANDRE BUCHANNONWR JURET
★3★3462%—HELD
84
JP MIKHAELTE SERET
★3—384%——
14
SAM KENERSONWR SERET
★3★3372%—HELD
12
JET THOMPSONWR SERET
UNR★3321%+37EMERGED
15
TAYLOR BRADSHAWWR SERET
UNR—241%——
85
BROOKS PANGLEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
18
KD DORSEYWR SORET
★3★200%—FELL
38
KEVIN DOUGLASWR SERET
UNR—00%——
26
ANTAVIOUS MURPHYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
80
JORDAN WOOLENWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
88
CARMELO MAYSWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
27
DEUCE PETTYWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
47
KHAI ISAACTE FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
48
AUBREY HEATHTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL49TAL28PERF49RET71n=6 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL37TAL39PERF37RET92n=9 · 8 METRICS · 56 OBS
▸LB31TAL31PERF31RET86n=5 · 11 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸DB54TAL24PERF54RET68n=9 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NASIR SMITHHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
DEVIN COLLIERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TAEO TODDHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
KEON DAVISHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ANTAVIOUS MURPHYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ELIJAH MCDOWELLHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JALEN BURGESSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JORDAN WOOLENHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAQUARI BROWNHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CJ ALLENHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TYLER FROMMAUBURNTE★4★3
LV BUNKLEY-SHELTONOKLAHOMAWR★4★3
DEXTER WILLIAMS IIINDIANAQB★3★3
DEONTRE MORRISKENNESAW STATESUNR★3
DAVON HICKSWASHINGTON STATELB★3★3
JUSTIN KANYUKNORTH CAROLINAOT★3★3
CHANCE GAMBLEKENNESAW STATECBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RASHEED MILLERLOUISVILLEOL★3★3
SETH ROBERTSONAPP STATECB★3★3
TARIAN LEE JR.SMULB★3★3
JAYLON BARDENSAMFORDWR★3★4
KHALIL CROWDERELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
BRIAN MILLERELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
DAMEL HICKMANELIGIBILITY UPDB★2—
DAVIS BRINELIGIBILITY UPQB★3—
KHADRY JACKSONELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
SHEMAR BARTHOLOMEWELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES23%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS53%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#91NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8254COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1219 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
34TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
7
6
6
9
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.8 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED15 OF 34
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST38% BACK38th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG38% BACK38th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR71%71th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR93%93th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST68%68th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE