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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG TEN|BRET BIELEMA|—RECORD10-3|CONF—
ILLINOIS#16 AP 45 FPIB1G · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
55FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
63%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-12IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#492 BC / 18
BC RATIO
10%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.8
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE77
PERFORMANCE77
TALENT65
CONTINUITY63
DEFENSE59
PERFORMANCE59
TALENT50
CONTINUITY78
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
60MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HEASTERN ILLINOIS—W 45-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HKANSAS—W 23-17656262+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 30-9151111+66BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20ANEBRASKA—W 31-24846666+11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28APENN STATE#5L 7-21939797-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HPURDUE—W 50-49741010+67BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HMICHIGAN—W 21-7898181-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AOREGON#3L 9-38969999-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HMINNESOTA—L 17-25688080-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HMICHIGAN STATE—W 38-16713333+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ARUTGERS—W 38-31586969+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30ANORTHWESTERN—W 38-28612424+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 31HSOUTH CAROLINA#19W 21-17859090-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB38TAL92PERF38RET99ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
LUKE ALTMYERQB SERET
★4★48899%+3HELD
10
DONOVAN LEARYQB JURET
★3★3111%—HELD
6
CAL SWANSONQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
11
JACOB HUBERQB JURET
UNR—00%——
12
KIRKLAND MICHAUXQB JURET
UNR—00%——
12
TREY PETTYQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB51TAL83PERF51RET80ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
JOSH MCCRAYRB SERET
★3★38337%-20HELD
21
AIDAN LAUGHERYRB SERET
★3—7829%+21—
5
CA'LIL VALENTINERB JUNO SNAPS
★4—6415%-48—
23
JORDAN ANDERSONRB SERET
★3—151%——
27
COREY RASHADRB JURET
UNR—00%——
22
PETEY OLALEYERB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
25
AARON BALLRB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE45TAL61PERF55RET63ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
85
TANNER ARKINTE SERET
★3★39764%+53HELD
4
ZAKHARI FRANKLINWR SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★2★39230%+17ROSE
13
PAT BRYANTWR SERET
★3—9128%+30—
17
COLLIN DIXONWR JURET
★3—7517%-16—
83
KADEN FEAGINTE SERET
★4—6919%+6—
80
HANK BEATTYWR SERET
★3—6812%+2—
84
CARSON GODATE SEPORTAL · SAINT ANSELM
UNR★36721%—EMERGED
87
HENRY BOYERTE SERET
★3★35814%—HELD
88
MALIK ELZYWR JURET
★4★3545%-15FELL
7
ALEXANDER CAPKA-JONESWR SERET
UNR★3514%—EMERGED
7
KENARI WILCHERWR SORET
★3★3453%—HELD
2
ASHTON HOLLINSWR SERET
★3★3271%+19HELD
33
JAKE FURTNEYTE SONO SNAPS
★3★340%—HELD
86
WESTON ADAMSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
20
MORRISON GIGGETTSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
14
COLE RUSKTE SEPORTAL · MURRAY STATE
★3★400%—ROSE
41
CLAYTON LEONARDTE JURET
★3—00%——
82
NATE GUINNTE FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
83
TYSEAN GRIFFINWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
89
TANNER HOLLINGERTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
7
NICK TRUETE SORET
UNR—00%——
87
TYLER MCCLUREWR SERET
UNR—00%——
1
MARIO SANDERSWR SENO SNAPS
★2★300%—ROSE
18
MICHAEL BARTOLOTTAWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
CARLOS ORR-GILLESPIEWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
42
JAKE PETROWTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
28
KARSON KAISERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL60TAL61PERF60RET60n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL46TAL54PERF46RET55n=6 · 7 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸LB43TAL55PERF43RET91n=11 · 11 METRICS · 61 OBS
▸DB56TAL44PERF56RET71n=9 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ANDREW DENNISHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
CA'LIL VALENTINEHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
TYSEAN GRIFFINHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
EDDIE TUERKHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TREY PETTYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DEMETRIUS JOHNHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CARLOS ORR-GILLESPIEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
VERNON WOODWARD IIIHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ZAFIR STEWARTHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ANGELO MCCULLOMHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TERRANCE BROOKSTEXASCB★4★4
COLE RUSKMURRAY STATETE★3★4
J.C. DAVISNEW MEXICOOTUNR★4
KEVIN WIGENTON IIMICHIGAN STATEIOL★3★3
ZAKHARI FRANKLINOLE MISSWR★2★3
MELVIN PRIESTLYGRAMBLINGOT★2★3
TORRIE COX JR.OHIOCB★3★3
DENNIS BRIGGS JR.FLORIDA STATEDL★4★3
ENYCE SLEDGEAUBURNDL★3★3
CARSON GODASAINT ANSELMTEUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT28 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TAHVEON NICHOLSONLOUISVILLEDBUNR★3
ZACHARY TOBEGEORGIA TECHCB★3★3
REGGIE LOVE IIIPURDUERB★3★3
SEDARIUS MCCONNELLBOSTON COLLEGEDL★3★3
GRIFFIN MOORETEXAS STATETE★3★3
ELIJAH MC-CANTOSAPP STATES★3★3
KEION BATTLEWESTERN ILLINOISWR★2★2
ZACH BARLEVOLD DOMINIONOL★3★3
JARED BADIESAN DIEGO STATELB★3★3
TREY SMITHPURDUEDE★3UNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES36%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS66%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#49NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8564COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1224 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
28TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
4
12
4
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +3.0 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +5 W
IMPROVED12 OF 28
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST55% BACK55th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG55% BACK55th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR60%60th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST71%71th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE