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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG TEN|BRET BIELEMA|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
ILLINOIS30 FPIB1G · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
54FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
86%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
83%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#451 BC / 21
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.1
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE74
PERFORMANCE74
TALENT65
CONTINUITY86
DEFENSE56
PERFORMANCE56
TALENT55
CONTINUITY83
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
67MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HWESTERN ILLINOIS—W 52-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6ADUKE—W 45-19586868+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 38-0244343+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AINDIANA#1L 10-6348100100-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HUSC#20W 34-32888989-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4APURDUE—W 43-27613434+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HOHIO STATE#5L 16-34999999-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AWASHINGTON—L 25-42749191-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HRUTGERS—W 35-13624747+36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HMARYLAND—W 24-6634545+38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AWISCONSIN—L 10-27803838+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HNORTHWESTERN—W 20-13596363+20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 30HTENNESSEE—W 30-28898787-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB52TAL92PERF52RET99ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
LUKE ALTMYERQB SERET
★4★49299%+16HELD
5
ETHAN HAMPTONQB SEPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
★3★3141%-26HELD
12
TREY PETTYQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
4
CARSON BOYDQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
15
JERSHAUN NEWTONQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB40TAL80PERF40RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 5 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
CA'LIL VALENTINERB JURET
★4—8156%-28—
21
AIDAN LAUGHERYRB SERET
★3—7339%+15—
23
JORDAN ANDERSONRB SERET
★3—355%+37—
27
COREY RASHADRB JURET
UNR—00%——
22
CEDRIC WYCHE IIRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
22
PETEY OLALEYERB SORET
UNR—00%——
25
AARON BALLRB FRRET
★2—00%——
20
JOHN FORSTERRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE66TAL65PERF66RET62ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 47 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
85
TANNER ARKINTE SERET
★3★39549%-3HELD
80
HANK BEATTYWR SERET
★3—9230%+27—
17
COLLIN DIXONWR JURET
★3—8826%+11—
13
HUDSON CLEMENTWR SEPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
UNR★38424%+31EMERGED
0
JUSTIN BOWICKWR SEPORTAL · BALL STATE
UNR★47013%+31EMERGED
86
CHRISTIAN ABNEYTE SEPORTAL · BALL STATE
★3★36716%-37HELD
14
COLE RUSKTE SERET
★3★46313%+41ROSE
83
KADEN FEAGINTE SERET
★4—6312%+13—
88
DAVIN STOFFELTE JUPORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
UNR★3579%—EMERGED
88
MALIK ELZYWR JURET
★4★3423%+4FELL
2
ASHTON HOLLINSWR SERET
★3★3402%+31HELD
7
ALEXANDER CAPKA-JONESWR SERET
UNR★3342%-49EMERGED
89
TANNER HOLLINGERTE SORET
★3—90%——
1
MARIO SANDERSWR SERET
★2★360%—ROSE
11
BRAYDEN TRIMBLEWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
16
LOGAN FARRELLTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
28
KARSON KAISERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
83
TYSEAN GRIFFINWR FRRET
★3—00%——
87
TYLER MCCLUREWR SERET
UNR—00%——
18
MICHAEL BARTOLOTTAWR SERET
UNR—00%——
39
JAKE FURTNEYTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
84
GRANT SMITHTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
39
TREY PETERSTE FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▸OL52TAL58PERF52RET96n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL54TAL74PERF54RET46n=9 · 8 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸LB54TAL58PERF54RET88n=10 · 11 METRICS · 65 OBS
▸DB64TAL43PERF64RET100n=11 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GRANT BEERMANHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
BRAYDEN TRIMBLEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JOHN FORSTERHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CEDRIC WYCHE IIHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
LOGAN FARRELLHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JERSHAUN NEWTONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
TYWAN COXHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CARSON BOYDHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
ANDRE LOVETT JR.HS RECRUITS★3UNR
ISAIAH WHITEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAMES THOMPSON JR.WISCONSINDL★3★4
AYDEN KNAPIKIDAHOOT★3★3
JUSTIN BOWICKBALL STATEWRUNR★3
LEON LOWERY JR.WISCONSINEDGE★3★3
TOMIWA DUROJAIYEFLORIDA STATEDL★3★3
ELI COENENBEMIDJI STATEDLUNR★3
HUDSON CLEMENTWEST VIRGINIAWRUNR★3
ETHAN HAMPTONNORTHERN ILLINOISQB★3★3
TYLER MCMILLANSOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATEOT★2★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT20 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZYLON CRISLERCOLORADOOLUNR★3
ALEX BRAYKANSASDE★3★3
JOSH MCCRAYGEORGIARB★3★3
HENRY BOYERKENTUCKYTE★3★3
HUNTER WHITENACKWESTERN MICHIGANOL★3★3
KENARI WILCHERFLORIDA A&MWR★3★3
KEVIN WIGENTON IIVIRGINIAOL★3★3
ENYCE SLEDGEFLORIDA ATLANTICDL★3★3
ETHAN MOCZULSKIWASHINGTONPK★3★3
PAT BRYANTNFL DRAFT R3WR★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES27%2 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS61%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#45NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8677COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1824 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
28TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
4
12
4
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +3.0 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +5 W
IMPROVED12 OF 28
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST74% BACK74th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG74% BACK74th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR96%96th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST100%100th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE