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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG TEN|KIRK FERENTZ|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
IOWA23 FPIB1G · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
72FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
96%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#326 BC / 28
BC RATIO
17%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+10.9
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE57
PERFORMANCE57
TALENT71
CONTINUITY80
DEFENSE79
PERFORMANCE79
TALENT71
CONTINUITY96
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
58MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HILLINOIS STATE—W 40-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HIOWA STATE#15L 19-20518080+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HTROY—W 38-21182929+60BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21AMINNESOTA—W 31-14688080+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AOHIO STATE#1L 7-3599100100-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HWASHINGTON—W 40-16755757+32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AMICHIGAN STATE—L 20-32713333+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HNORTHWESTERN—W 40-14612424+65BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HWISCONSIN—W 42-10815656+33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AUCLA—L 17-20804444+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AMARYLAND—W 29-13643636+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HNEBRASKA—W 13-10846666+23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 30AMISSOURI#22L 24-27878686+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB52TAL68PERF52RET61ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
CADE MCNAMARAQB SERET
★4★47061%-3HELD
6
BRENDAN SULLIVANQB SEPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN
★3★35826%+39HELD
19
JACKSON STRATTONQB JUPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
★3★34313%-45HELD
10
MARCO LAINEZQB SORET
★3—00%——
10
JAMES RESARQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB64TAL73PERF64RET100ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
KALEB JOHNSONRB JURET
★4—9658%+9—
28
KAMARI MOULTONRB SERET
★3—7017%-5—
4
JAZIUN PATTERSONRB SERET
★3★36211%-42HELD
0
TJ WASHINGTON JR.RB JURET
★3★3537%-35—
4
LESHON WILLIAMSRB SERET
★3★3445%-42HELD
24
MAX WHITERB SERET
UNR★3191%—EMERGED
8
RUSTY VANWETZINGA IVFB JURET
★2★300%—ROSE
31
ELI MILLERFB JURET
UNR—00%——
23
BREVIN DOLLRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
27
GRANT GLAUSSERRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
26
XAVIER WILLIAMSRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE45TAL64PERF44RET65ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 39 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
85
LUKE LACHEYTE SERET
★4—9645%+2—
5
JACOB GILLWR SEPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN
★3★38340%-16HELD
87
ADDISON OSTRENGATE SERET
★3—7520%-23—
2
REECE VANDER ZEEWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—7024%+31—
0
JARRIETT BUIEWR JURET
★3—6720%-51—
48
ZACH ORTWERTHTE SERET
★3—6514%+17—
88
HAYDEN LARGETE SERET
UNR—5910%——
82
JOHNNY PASCUZZITE SERET
UNR★3569%—EMERGED
21
KADEN WETJENWR SERET
UNR—517%-47—
7
DAYTON HOWARDWR SERET
★3—517%——
6
SETH ANDERSONWR SERET
★2★243100%+22HELD
8
KALEB BROWNWR SERET
★4★3262%-21FELL
49
ANDREW LENTSCHTE JURET
UNR—231%——
44
GRANT LEEPERTE SORET
★3★3151%—HELD
80
MICHAEL BURTTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—90%——
81
DJ VONNAHMETE JUNO SNAPS
★2—40%——
17
ALEX EICHMANNWR SERET
UNR—00%——
18
ALEC WICKWR JURET
UNR—00%-55—
14
ALEX MOTAWR SERET
★3—00%——
14
REESE OSGOODWR JURET
UNR—00%——
19
GRAHAM FRIEDRICHSENWR JURET
UNR—00%——
75
KYSON VAN VUGTTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
1
KJ PARKERWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
33
JALYN THOMPSONTE SORET
★3★200%—FELL
88
GAVIN HOFFMANTE JUNO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
2
AYDEN PRICEWR SORET
★3—00%——
13
JUDAH MALLETTEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
83
COLE MARSHTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL53TAL82PERF53RET99n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL47TAL80PERF47RET98n=8 · 7 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸LB38TAL44PERF38RET100n=5 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DB49TAL69PERF49RET96n=9 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
WILL NOLANHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
GAVIN HOFFMANHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
CAM BUFFINGTONHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
DEREK WEISSKOPFHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
CODY FOXHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
JOSEPH ANDERSONHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
CHIMA CHINEKEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
BODEY MCCASLINHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JAMES RESARHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
BREVIN DOLLHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN3 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CADE BORUDNORTH DAKOTAIOL★2★3
BRENDAN SULLIVANNORTHWESTERNQB★3★3
JACOB GILLNORTHWESTERNWR★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT16 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEACON HILLUTAH TECHQB★3★3
DIANTE VINESOLD DOMINIONWR★3★3
BRENDEN DEASFERNANDESCENTRAL MICHIGANDB★3★3
ANTERIO THOMPSONWESTERN MICHIGANDLUNR★3
LOGAN LEENFL DRAFT R6DL★3—
COOPER DEJEANNFL DRAFT R2DB★4—
ERICK ALLNFL DRAFT R4TE★4—
TORY TAYLORNFL DRAFT R4PUNR—
JOE EVANSELIGIBILITY UPDEUNR—
RUSTY FETHELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES14%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS62%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#32NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
6OF 28 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8521COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
412 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST62% BACK62th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG62% BACK62th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR61%61th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST96%96th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE