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HOME›TEAMS›IOWA STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG 12|MATT CAMPBELL|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
IOWA STATE31 FPIB12 · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
57FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
74%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
83%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#421 BC / 26
BC RATIO
7%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
7-5ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+4.6
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE55
PERFORMANCE55
TALENT75
CONTINUITY74
DEFENSE73
PERFORMANCE73
TALENT64
CONTINUITY83
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
65MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
6 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HNORTHERN IOWA—W 30-9————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9HIOWA#24L 13-20716666+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16AOHIO—L 7-10124747+25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HOKLAHOMA STATE#16W 34-27606969+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AOKLAHOMA#15L 20-50948888-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HTCU—W 27-14877474-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14ACINCINNATI—W 30-10643434+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28ABAYLOR—W 30-18672727+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HKANSAS#23L 21-28558282-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11ABYU—W 45-13474343+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HTEXAS#3L 16-26969696-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25AKANSAS STATE#18W 42-35519090-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 29HMEMPHIS—L 26-36545959+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB60TAL98PERF60RET96ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
ROCCO BECHTQB SERET
★3★49096%+27ROSE
17
JJ KOHLQB JUNO SNAPS
★4★3264%—FELL
7
TANNER HUGHESQB JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
12
HUNTER DEKKERSQB JURET
★4—00%+24—
16
WYATT BOHMQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB45TAL75PERF45RET57ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
CARTEVIOUS NORTONRB SERET
★3★38031%-44HELD
1
ELI SANDERSRB SERET
★3★37426%-22HELD
3
ABU SAMA IIIRB SENO SNAPS
★3★37223%+38HELD
21
CARSON HANSENRB SENO SNAPS
★3★36820%-17HELD
33
ARLEN HARRIS JR.RB FRPORTAL · STANFORD
★4★460%—HELD
38
LEVI HUMMELRB SERET
UNR—00%——
34
BLAZE DOXZONRB JURET
UNR—00%——
25
EASTON MILLERRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE68TAL75PERF68RET63ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
JAYDEN HIGGINSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—8931%+35—
13
JAYLIN NOELWR SERET
★3—8931%+17—
87
EASTON DEANTE SERET
★3—7827%-2—
18
BENJAMIN BRAHMERTE SENO SNAPS
★3★47726%+34ROSE
14
DIMITRI STANLEYWR SERET
★3—6915%-31—
84
GABE BURKLETE SERET
★3★36819%—HELD
16
DANIEL JACKSONWR SERET
★3★36815%+4HELD
49
STEVO KLOTZTE SERET
UNR—6617%——
82
TYLER MOORETE SERET
★3—5610%-8—
85
AIDAN BITTERWR JURET
★3★3567%-44HELD
8
GREG GAINES IIIWR SERET
★4★3171%—FELL
86
ANDREW KELLERTE SORET
★3—00%——
5
TERRELL CROSBY JR.WR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
48
JACK BJORNTE SERET
UNR—00%——
18
DESHAWN HANIKATE SERET
UNR★300%+53EMERGED
18
QUARON ADAMSWR SERET
★2★300%—ROSE
12
JASON ESSEXWR FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
19
MICHAEL PARKESWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
17
KAI BLACKWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
10
CARSON BROWNWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
89
TY CLAIBORNEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
86
TRIPP WALSHTE SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
39
AJ PETERSENTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
JONATHAN VANDE WALLEWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
22
DILLON RANCKWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
43
TUCKER CLARKTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL48TAL71PERF48RET88n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL48TAL72PERF48RET86n=6 · 7 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸LB50TAL56PERF50RET71n=9 · 10 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸DB64TAL64PERF64RET87n=12 · 6 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS23 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JJ KOHLHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
SAMUEL SAMEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ABU SAMA IIIHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JAMISON PATTONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
KAI BLACKHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
BEN BRAHMERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
BENI NGOYIHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TREVOR BUHRHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
MICHAEL PARKESHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DAVID CAULKERHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN2 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ARLEN HARRIS JR.STANFORDRB★4★3
ZACHARY LOVETTMISSOURILB★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TAYVONN KYLEVIRGINIACB★3★3
MASON CHAMBERSINCARNATE WORDDB★3★3
DEON SILASRHODE ISLANDRB★3★3
SEAN SHAW JR.TEXAS STATEWR★3★3
JAYDEN GRAYLOUISIANA TECHDL★3★3
TREVOR DOWNINGELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
O'RIEN VANCEELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
ANTHONY JOHNSON JR.ELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
WILL MCDONALD IVELIGIBILITY UPDE★3—
ISAIAH LEEELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES41%2 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS53%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#42NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8579COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
212 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST69% BACK69th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG69% BACK69th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR88%88th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR96%96th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST87%87th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE