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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
CONFERENCE USA|JAMEY CHADWELL|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
LIBERTY104 FPICUSA · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
39FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
56%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
77%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#860 BC / 14
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.8-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-0.9
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE35
PERFORMANCE35
TALENT34
CONTINUITY56
DEFENSE6
PERFORMANCE6
TALENT40
CONTINUITY77
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
32MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HMAINE—W 28-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6AJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 24-34203333-8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13ABOWLING GREEN—L 13-23231717+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HJAMES MADISON#19L 13-3188181-56BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27AOLD DOMINION—L 7-21126464-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 8AUTEP—W 19-82755+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 14HNEW MEXICO STATE—W 30-2761010+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HDELAWARE—W 59-3042020+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HMISSOURI STATE—L 17-2172121+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—L 27-34292121+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ALOUISIANA TECH—L 28-34164444-19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HKENNESAW STATE—L 42-4843535-10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB36TAL31PERF36RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
ETHAN VASKOQB SEPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
★3★38083%+5HELD
12
MICHAEL MERDINGERQB JUPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
★3★35615%+27HELD
14
ETHAN HOUCKQB FRTRUE FR
★3—202%——
16
JAYDEN BRADFORDQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
18
RYAN BURGERQB JURET
★3★300%-46HELD
▾RB47TAL55PERF47RET70ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
BRENTON WILLIAMSRB JURET
★3★37816%—HELD
23
EVAN DICKENSRB JUPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
★3★39652%+20HELD
30
ETHAN CRISPRB JURET
★3★3607%—HELD
24
VAUGHN BLUERB JURET
UNR—6715%+13—
21
CADEN WILLIAMSRB FRRET
★3—6514%-40—
1
JULIAN GRAYRB SERET
★3★46413%+34ROSE
0
JAYLON COLEMANRB SONO SNAPS
★3—495%+36—
26
JAYLIN BELFORDRB SERET
UNR—60%——
20
MALACHI FANNIN-RENDERRB FRTRUE FR
UNR★360%—EMERGED
▾WR/TE45TAL40PERF44RET79ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 40 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
84
JACOB JENKINSTE SERET
★2—8749%+35—
9
DONTE LEE JR.WR SERET
UNR★37823%+31EMERGED
3
JAMARI PERSONWR SEPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
★3★37823%-6HELD
6
REESE SMITHWR SERET
★3★37621%-13HELD
48
CALEB RYANTE SERET
UNR—7429%——
2
CASEY CAINWR SEPORTAL · UNLV
★3★36613%+35HELD
83
AUSTIN HENDERSONTE SERET
★3—6519%0—
8
TYSON MOBLEYWR SERET
★2★36110%-1ROSE
5
ELIJAH CANIONWR SERET
★3★3505%+18HELD
1
DARIUS COPELANDWR JURET
UNR—423%-54—
17
BO BURKLOWTE JURET
★3—312%——
10
JON MONTEIROWR SORET
UNR—251%——
16
ERIC SMITHWR SORET
★3—140%——
9
BRYCE RANDOLPHWR FRTRUE FR
★3—110%——
85
CONNIE HEWITT IITE FRRET
★3★370%—HELD
19
ELI SISSONTE FRRET
★3★340%—HELD
8
NASIR NEWKIRKWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
22
COLEMAN BAKERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
27
CLAYTON SHEPLERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
▸OL52TAL24PERF53RET62n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL26TAL43PERF26RET70n=11 · 7 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸LB26TAL23PERF26RET40n=7 · 11 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸DB43TAL46PERF43RET97n=10 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAYLON COLEMANHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ETHAN HOUCKHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
SAMUEL COHENHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
KAM CULLINSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
NASIR NEWKIRKHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
GAVIN ASKEWHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
GABE SMITHHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
BRYCE RANDOLPHHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JEFFREY HAIRSTON JR.HS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
BRANDON EDOZIEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MICHAEL MERDINGERNORTH CAROLINAQB★3★3
CASEY CAINUNLVWR★3★3
AARON HESTERFLORIDA STATEEDGE★3★3
JAYDEN WHALEYHAMPTONSUNR★3
JIQUAVIOUS MARSHALLKENTUCKYCB★3★3
JAMARI PERSONCOLORADO STATEWR★3★3
ETHAN VASKOCOASTAL CAROLINAQB★3★3
EVAN DICKENSGEORGIA TECHRB★3★3
CHRISTIAN WILLIAMSFLORIDAIOL★4★3
DERRELL FARRARAPP STATELB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT30 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN WHITEVANDERBILTOL★3★4
TJ BUSH JR.CALIFORNIADL★3★3
XAVIOR GRAYNORTHWESTERNOLUNR★3
CHRIS BOTIARKANSAS STATEDT★3★3
JORDAN HALLTULANEOLUNR★3
KAIDON SALTERCOLORADOQB★4★3
ELIYT NAIRNETULANEDLUNR★3
JAYDEN SWEENEYFLORIDA ATLANTICS★3★3
JAY HARDYAUBURNDL★4★3
LARRY JONES IIINEW MEXICO STATEDE★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES86%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS28%4 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#86NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8584COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2028 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
18TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
1
3
6
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.8 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +7 W
IMPROVED10 OF 18
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST99% BACK99th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG99% BACK99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR62%62th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST97%97th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE