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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SUN BELT|MICHAEL DESORMEAUX|—RECORD10-4|CONF—
LOUISIANA68 FPISBC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
31FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
93%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1170 BC / 14
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs9.0-4.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+9.7
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE61
PERFORMANCE61
TALENT39
CONTINUITY93
DEFENSE17
PERFORMANCE17
TALENT41
CONTINUITY79
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
36MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HGRAMBLING—W 40-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7AKENNESAW STATE—W 34-10522+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HTULANE—L 33-41556868-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AWAKE FOREST—W 41-38493030+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5ASOUTHERN MISS—W 23-133511+60BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HAPP STATE—W 34-24392626+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ACOASTAL CAROLINA—W 34-24342727+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 29ATEXAS STATE—W 23-17286565-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HARKANSAS STATE—W 55-19382323+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HSOUTH ALABAMA—L 22-24325555+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HTROY—W 51-30182929+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AUL MONROE—W 37-23699+52BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 7HMARSHALL—L 3-31425757+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28ATCU—L 3-34808282-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB50TAL23PERF50RET92ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
BEN WOOLDRIDGEQB SERET
★2★28070%-13HELD
18
CHANDLER FIELDSQB SERET
★3—6322%+24—
11
DANIEL BEALEQB SONO SNAPS
★3—438%-55—
7
LUNCH WINFIELDQB JURET
UNR—40%——
17
ADRYAN LARAQB SOPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
★3★300%—HELD
16
SAM ALTMANNQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB62TAL42PERF63RET91ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
32
BILL DAVISRB JURET
★3★38842%+19—
7
ZYLAN PERRYRB SERET
UNR★38333%-3EMERGED
20
DRE WASHINGTONRB SERET
★3—7322%+22—
22
CHAZ WARDRB SERET
UNR—434%——
23
TYLAN CITIZENRB SORET
UNR—252%+32—
27
KENDRELL WILLIAMSRB JURET
★3—191%——
24
STEVEN BLANCORB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
25
HUTCH SWILLEYRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
29
KEILAN SHERMANRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE63TAL36PERF59RET86ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
TERRANCE CARTER JR.TE SERET
★3—9851%+48—
88
CADEN JENSENTE JURET
★2—8835%-11—
3
HARVEY BROUSSARD IIIWR SERET
★3—8824%+2—
9
LANCE LEGENDREWR SERET
★4★38321%+34FELL
4
JACOB BERNARDWR SERET
★3—7918%+10—
0
ROBERT WILLIAMSWR SERET
★3—7717%+5—
80
TAVION SMITHWR SERET
UNR—639%+29—
18
TY STAMEYTE JURET
★3★3559%—HELD
8
JAYDON JOHNSONWR SERET
★3—524%+13—
11
DALEN CAMBREWR SERET
UNR—493%-7—
2
RAHJI DENNISWR SONO SNAPS
★3—301%——
9
KEDARIUS WADEWR JURET
UNR—291%——
30
TRAYV'ON CULBERTWR JURET
UNR—211%——
19
DALE MARTINWR SERET
UNR—211%——
26
CALEB BONINETE JURET
UNR—191%——
85
LANDON BAPTISTEWR JURET
UNR—181%——
44
TEDDY GAWLIKTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—70%——
17
LANDON STROTHERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—70%——
84
JATHAN CALDWELLTE SORET
★3★340%—HELD
82
RHETT GUIDRYTE JURET
★3—00%——
13
CHARLES ROBERTSONWR JURET
★3★300%+9HELD
4
JON MCCALLWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
CULLEN CHARLESWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
34
CHRISTIAN PILLETTEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL64TAL41PERF64RET98n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL37TAL35PERF37RET76n=7 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
▸LB33TAL45PERF33RET58n=7 · 11 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸DB60TAL40PERF60RET99n=9 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RAHJI DENNISHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
VOSKY HOWARDHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
NA'TORI BROWNHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DEVRON WILLIAMS JR.HS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
PRIEST ASHEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
RYDER BENTLEYHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
AVERY DEMERYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JA'CORIAN NORRISHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DANIEL BEALEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
HUTCH SWILLEYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZAY ALEXANDERMISSISSIPPI STATEOT★3★3
ASHLEY WILLIAMS JR.ARIZONA STATEEDGEUNR★3
JADEN DUGGERGEORGETOWNSUNR★3
FITZGERALD WEST JR.LSUDL★3★3
CARMYCAH GLASSMISSOURILB★3★3
ADRYAN LARAKANSAS STATEQB★3★3
MAXIE BAUDOIN IVTULANEDL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT23 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KENDRE GANTHOUSTONLB★3★3
NIJEL MCGRIFFTARLETON STATEDLUNR★3
ZEON CHRISS-GREMILLIONHOUSTONQB★3★3
CAM GEORGENORTHWESTERN STATEDL★3UNR
NATHAN THOMASNFL DRAFT R7OL★3—
JASPER WILLIAMSELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
NEAL JOHNSONELIGIBILITY UPTE★3—
GLENN BROWNELIGIBILITY UPCB★2—
PETER LEBLANCELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
TYLER GUIDRYELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES44%2 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS34%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#117NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8290COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
76 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST58% BACK58th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG58% BACK58th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR92%92th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST99%99th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE