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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG TEN|MIKE LOCKSLEY|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
MARYLAND73 FPIB1G · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
63FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
49%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
43%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-16IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#256 BC / 21
BC RATIO
25%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-3.0
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE30
PERFORMANCE30
TALENT79
CONTINUITY49
DEFENSE71
PERFORMANCE71
TALENT70
CONTINUITY43
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
55MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 39-7412828+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 5HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 20-9966+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HTOWSON—W 44-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20AWISCONSIN—W 27-10803838+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HWASHINGTON—L 20-24749191-46BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HNEBRASKA—L 31-34866666-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AUCLA—L 17-20822828+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HINDIANA#1L 10-5548100100-55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8ARUTGERS—L 20-35624747-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AILLINOIS—L 6-24548383-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HMICHIGAN#21L 20-45938282-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AMICHIGAN STATE—L 28-38734040+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB79TAL94PERF79RET0ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
MALIK WASHINGTONQB SONO SNAPS
★4—9896%-29—
3
KHRISTIAN MARTINQB SORET
★3★3344%—HELD
16
JUSTYN MARTINQB SEPORTAL · UCLA
★4★300%+34FELL
18
ROMAN JENSENQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
15
JACKSON HAMILTONQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB56TAL56PERF56RET25ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
DEJUAN WILLIAMSRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—9864%+8—
2
NOLAN RAYRB JURET
★3★37625%-22HELD
24
IVERSON HOWARDRB SONO SNAPS
★3—5911%-53—
29
COLIN REYNOLDSRB FRRET
UNR—27100%——
20
DJ SAMUELSFB JURET
★3—91%——
27
ELI MASONRB JURET
UNR—00%——
47
ELIAS JOHNSONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
19
BUD COOMBSRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
45
SOLOMON FOYERB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE54TAL77PERF53RET44ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
OCTAVIAN SMITH JR.WR SERET
★4—9830%-28—
9
DORIAN FLEMINGTE JUPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
★3★39662%+8HELD
4
SHALEAK KNOTTSWR SERET
★4—9627%+12—
1
JALIL FAROOQWR SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★4★39525%-2FELL
2
KALEB WEBBWR SEPORTAL · TENNESSEE
★4★37714%-14FELL
89
AJ SZYMANSKITE SERET
★3—6215%——
86
LEON HAUGHTON JR.TE SERET
★3★36013%-36HELD
85
JT TAGGARTTE SONO SNAPS
★3—465%——
39
DANIEL OWENSTE SERET
★3—384%——
11
RYAN MANNINGWR JURET
★3—362%-19—
14
JORDAN SCOTTWR SEPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
UNR★3291%—EMERGED
84
THOMAS MCCLUSKEYTE JURET
UNR—272%——
15
JOSIAH MCLAURINWR SORET
★3★3251%—HELD
10
ZYMEAR SMITHWR FRTRUE FR
★4—241%——
13
JAHMARI POWELL-WONSONWR JURET
★3★360%—HELD
21
SEAN WILLIAMSWR JURET
★3—60%——
8
MEKHAI WHITEWR SORET
★3—00%——
88
JUSTIN DEVAUGHNWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
83
EMERSON SMITHWR SORET
UNR—00%——
▸OL67TAL76PERF67RET56n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL56TAL69PERF56RET12n=9 · 7 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸LB50TAL68PERF50RET77n=8 · 11 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸DB55TAL73PERF55RET53n=10 · 6 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MALIK WASHINGTONHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
JAYLEN GILCHRISTHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
ZAHIR MATHISHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
BRYCE JENKINSHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
MESSIAH DELHOMMEHS RECRUITS★4UNR
ZYMEAR SMITHHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
IVERSON HOWARDHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CARLTON SMITHHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JUSTIN DEVAUGHNHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
LAMAR WILLIAMSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RAHTREL PERRYCENTRAL CONNECTICUTOTUNR★4
JAMARE GLASKERWAKE FORESTCB★3★3
JALIL FAROOQOKLAHOMAWR★4★3
JUSTYN MARTINUCLAQB★4★3
DD HOLMESFLORIDA STATEDL★4★3
CARLOS MOOREELONOTUNR★3
JOEL STARLINGSNORTH CAROLINADL★4★3
DORIAN FLEMINGGEORGIA STATETE★3★3
JORDAN SCOTTFLORIDA STATEWRUNR★3
SEDRICK SMITHALABAMA A&MDLUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT42 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PERRY FISHERUABDB★3★3
BILLY EDWARDS JR.WISCONSINQB★3★3
CALEB WHEATLANDAUBURNLB★3★3
ANDRE ROYE JR.COLORADOOL★3★3
KELLAN WYATTINDIANADL★3★3
ROMAN HEMBYINDIANARB★3★3
DYLAN WADEUCFTE★3★3
PRESTON HOWARDAUBURNTE★3★3
KEVIS THOMASKENTUCKYDB★3★3
TEREZ DAVISOLE MISSOL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES79%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS81%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#25NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
6OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8811COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1531 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST12% BACK12th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG12% BACK12th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR56%56th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST53%53th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE