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HOME›TEAMS›MICHIGAN›2021TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
BIG TEN|JIM HARBAUGH|—RECORD12-1|CONF—
MICHIGAN#3 AP 4 FPIB1G · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
90FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-15IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1012 BC / 22
BC RATIO
51%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
12-1ACTUALvs11.5-1.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+21.6
12 wins against a scoring profile describing 11.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
57MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4HWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 47-14234141+57BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11HWASHINGTON—W 31-10883636+62BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 18HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 63-10182626+72BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25HRUTGERS—W 20-13543333+65BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2AWISCONSIN—W 38-17859595+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 9ANEBRASKA—W 32-29827373+25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23HNORTHWESTERN—W 33-7691919+79BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30AMICHIGAN STATE#9L 33-37747979+19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6HINDIANA—W 29-7732323+75BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13APENN STATE—W 21-17898686+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20AMARYLAND—W 59-18775454+44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27HOHIO STATE#6W 42-27999999-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 4AIOWA#23W 42-3708080+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET33NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
J.J. MCCARTHYQB JUNO SNAPS
★5—00%——
7
ALAN BOWMANQB SEPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
★3★300%—HELD
11
CADE MCNAMARAQB SERET
★4★400%—HELD
18
MAX WITTWERQB JURET
★2—00%——
20
ANDY MADDOXQB SERET
UNR—00%——
10
DEACON HILLQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
16
REN HEFLEYQB JURET
UNR—00%——
17
PEYTON SMITHQB JURET
★2—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET71NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
37
DANNY HUGHESRB SERET
UNR—00%——
21
TAVIERRE DUNLAPRB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
2
BLAKE CORUMRB SERET
★4—00%——
7
DONOVAN EDWARDSRB SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
41
ISAIAH GASHRB JURET
UNR—00%——
34
LEON FRANKLINRB SERET
UNR—00%——
25
HASSAN HASKINSRB JURET
★3—00%——
20
KALEL MULLINGSRB SERET
★4—00%——
31
LUCAS ANDRIGHETTORB SERET
UNR—00%——
36
NICO TIBERIARB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
84
JOEL HONIGFORDTE SERET
★3—00%——
1
ANDREL ANTHONYWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
8
RONNIE BELLWR SERET
★3—00%——
86
LUKE SCHOONMAKERTE SERET
★3—00%——
83
ERICK ALLTE SERET
★4★400%—HELD
7
GEORGE JOHNSON IIIWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
89
CARTER SELZERTE SERET
UNR—00%——
85
DAYLEN BALDWINWR SEPORTAL · JACKSON STATE
UNR★300%—EMERGED
6
CORNELIUS JOHNSONWR SERET
★4—00%——
8
A.J. HENNINGWR SERET
★4★300%—FELL
85
CRISTIAN DIXONWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
1
ROMAN WILSONWR SERET
★4—00%——
89
DAN VILLARITE SERET
★3—00%——
30
WILL ROLAPPWR SERET
UNR—00%——
35
LUKE BUCKMANTE SERET
UNR—00%——
10
EAMONN DENNISWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
88
MATTHEW HIBNERTE SERET
★4★300%—FELL
39
MATT TOREYWR SERET
UNR—00%——
88
MATHEW HARRISONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
80
HUNTER NEFFTE SERET
UNR—00%——
15
JAKE THAWWR SERET
UNR—00%——
27
CHRISTIAN BARTHOLOMEWWR SERET
UNR—00%——
12
SAM STARUCHWR JURET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
J.J. MCCARTHYHS RECRUITQB★5UNR
DONOVAN EDWARDSHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
GIOVANNI EL-HADIHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
JUNIOR COLSONHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
RAYSHAUN BENNYHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
RAHEEM ANDERSON IIHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
CRISTIAN DIXONHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
LOUIS HANSENHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
JAYDON HOODHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
GEORGE ROOKSHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN3 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAYLEN BALDWINJACKSON STATEWRUNR★3
LANCE DIXONPENN STATEOLB★4★3
ALAN BOWMANTEXAS TECHQB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT15 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GILES JACKSONWASHINGTONWR★3★4
JOE MILTON IIITENNESSEEQB★4★3
HUNTER REYNOLDSUTAH STATESUNRUNR
BEN VANSUMERENMICHIGAN STATELB★3★3
ZACH CHARBONNETUCLARB★4★4
ADAM SHIBLEYNOTRE DAMELBUNRUNR
LUIJI VILAINWAKE FORESTDL★4★3
CHRIS EVANSNFL DRAFT R6RB★4—
BEN MASONNFL DRAFT R5TE★3—
KWITY PAYENFL DRAFT R1DL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#10NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
12OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9021COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
520 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST53% BACK53th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG53% BACK53th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR33%33th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE