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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
BIG TEN|MEL TUCKER|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
MICHIGAN STATE46 FPIB1G · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
76FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
10%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#246 BC / 27
BC RATIO
20%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
5-7ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-3.0
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE52
PERFORMANCE52
TALENT63
CONTINUITY10
DEFENSE35
PERFORMANCE35
TALENT68
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
64MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 35-133188+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HAKRON—W 52-03233+46BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17AWASHINGTON#8L 28-39858787-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HMINNESOTA—L 7-34648888-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1AMARYLAND—L 13-27737676-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HOHIO STATE#4L 20-49999898-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15HWISCONSIN—W 34-28826868-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29AMICHIGAN#3L 7-29919999-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5AILLINOIS—W 23-15608888-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HRUTGERS—W 27-21612727+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19HINDIANA—L 31-39743131+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26APENN STATE#7L 16-35909595-46BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB65TAL75PERF65RET95ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
PAYTON THORNEQB SERET
★3★38995%+5HELD
1
NOAH KIMQB SERET
★3★3295%—HELD
4
KATIN HOUSERQB SENO SNAPS
★4★340%—FELL
18
ANDREW SCHORFHAARQB JURET
UNR—00%——
15
CHRISTIAN BANKSQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB50TAL55PERF50RET31ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
JALEN BERGERRB SENO SNAPS
★4★38951%-27FELL
24
ELIJAH COLLINSRB SERET
★3★37529%-23HELD
3
JAREK BROUSSARDRB 5TNO SNAPS
★3—6216%+4—
9
JORDON SIMMONSRB SERET
★3★3131%-43HELD
24
DAVION PRIMMRB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
25
JOSEPH MARTINEZRB SERET
★2★200%—HELD
44
JAY COYNEFB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE52TAL76PERF52RET80ROTATIONn=8 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
KEON COLEMANWR JURET
★4★49531%+16HELD
1
JAYDEN REEDWR SERET
UNR—9028%+14—
17
TRE MOSLEYWR SERET
★3—8725%-19—
9
DANIEL BARKERTE 5TNO SNAPS
★3—7934%+30—
97
TYLER HUNTTE YRRET
UNR—7834%-32—
6
MALIQ CARRTE SERET
★4★37531%+13FELL
5
GERMIE BERNARDWR SENO SNAPS
★4★4587%-10HELD
3
MONTORIE FOSTER JR.WR SERET
★3—525%+3—
15
CADE MCDONALDWR SERET
UNR—372%——
16
CHRISTIAN FITZPATRICKWR SERET
★3★3342%—HELD
0
TYRELL HENRYWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3181%—HELD
40
POWERS WARRENTE YRNO SNAPS
★2—141%——
7
JARON GLOVERWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3100%—HELD
44
EVAN MORRISTE SERET
★3★391%—HELD
3
TERRY LOCKETT JR.WR SERET
★3—00%——
45
HAMPTON FAYTE JURET
★3★300%—HELD
1
ANTONIO GATES JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
84
JACK NICKELTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
85
SEBASTIAN BROWNWR SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
80
ZACH GILLESPIEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
86
NICK HUNTERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
20
AUBREY DAWKINSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
47
JACKSON MORSETE SERET
UNR—00%——
81
MICHAEL MASUNASTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
84
TYLER VROMANWR FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
89
ALEX WATTERSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL50TAL56PERF50RET0n=8 · 3 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DL56TAL70PERF56RET79n=12 · 7 METRICS · 59 OBS
▸LB61TAL60PERF61RET68n=4 · 11 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸DB39TAL73PERF40RET73n=10 · 6 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ALEX VANSUMERENHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
KATIN HOUSERHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
GERMIE BERNARDHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
DILLON TATUMHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
JADEN MANGHAMHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
ANTONIO GATES JR.HS RECRUITWR★4UNR
CALEB COLEYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JACK NICKELHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
MALIK SPENCERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
QUAVIAN CARTERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT21 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KALON GERVINKANSASCB★4UNR
MICHAEL DOWELLMIAMI (OH)DB★3UNR
CHASE KLINEEASTERN MICHIGANLB★3UNR
IAN STEWARTTEMPLEWR★3★3
JACK CAMPERVIRGINIADE★3UNR
ANTHONY RUSSOELIGIBILITY UPQB★3—
MATT ALLENELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
AJ ARCURIELIGIBILITY UPOT★3—
DREW BEESLEYELIGIBILITY UPDE★2—
DREW JORDANELIGIBILITY UPDE★4—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#24NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
6OF 27 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8629COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST64% BACK64th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG64% BACK64th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR95%95th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST73%73th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE