SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|BRIAN NEWBERRY|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
NAVY113 FPIAAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
1FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
63%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
87%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1310 BC / 21
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-4.8
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE5
PERFORMANCE5
TALENT15
CONTINUITY63
DEFENSE69
PERFORMANCE69
TALENT21
CONTINUITY87
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
41MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 26ANOTRE DAME#14L 3-42939595-80BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HWAGNER—W 24-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14AMEMPHIS—L 24-28545959-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HSOUTH FLORIDA—L 30-44533636-21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HNORTH TEXAS—W 27-24303636-21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14ACHARLOTTE—W 14-04333+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HAIR FORCE—L 6-1716767-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4ATEMPLE—L 18-324255+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HUAB—W 31-6291212+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HEAST CAROLINA—W 10-0451717-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25ASMU#22L 14-59768383-68BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
15DEC 9AARMY—L 11-1714141-26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB52TAL35PERF52RET69ONE OWNERn=4 · 5 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
TAI LAVATAIQB SERET
UNR—6146%+14—
5
BRAXTON WOODSONQB SENO SNAPS
★3—4923%-58—
7
XAVIER ARLINEQB SERET
UNR—4923%-19—
11
BLAKE HORVATHQB SERET
UNR—287%——
10
TEDROS GLEATONQB SORET
UNR—00%——
89
LUKE HUTCHISONQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
4
ISAIAH WALTERSQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
8
KARSON LOPATIQB SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
9
TYLER BAKERQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB50TAL15PERF50RET53ROTATIONn=5 · 9 METRICS · 24 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
46
ALEX TECZARB SERET
UNR—8726%+24—
28
AMIN HASSANRB SERET
★2—7013%-39—
45
DABA FOFANAFB SERET
★2—6611%——
34
ANTON HALL JR.RB JURET
★3—515%-35—
25
FABIAN FRANCERB SORET
UNR—120%——
38
LOGAN POINTFB SERET
★3—90%——
29
DANIEL JONESRB SERET
★2—90%+5—
40
KHALIL CRAWFORDFB SERET
UNR—60%——
2
DREVONN PONDERFB SORET
UNR—00%——
26
CAMERON SMITHRB JURET
UNR—00%——
21
KAI PUAILOA-ROJASRB SERET
★2—00%+33—
32
DANNY ENOVITCHRB SORET
UNR—00%——
37
SHANE REYNOLDSFB SERET
UNR—00%——
36
KENZO VITERIFB JURET
UNR—00%——
26
DENIM EDWARDSRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
14
JACK SKIDMORERB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
26
MARCEL GASKINSRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
21
TRAI FERGUSONRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
20
TK HODGESRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
29
GAGE LEONARDRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
41
STEFAN EGBEFB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
42
WILLIAM INGLEFB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
43
GAVIN NOEFB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
40
VIC LISTORTIFB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
25
ISAIAH BRYANTRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
49
KAMA ESPINDARB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE20TAL10PERF20RET29ONE OWNERn=3 · 6 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
24
BRANDON CHATMANWR SERET
UNR—8121%+8—
22
ELI HEIDENREICHWR SERET
UNR—7618%+35—
83
CODY HOWARDTE SERET
UNR—7165%-25—
87
JAYDEN UMBARGERWR SERET
UNR—6961%+19—
82
NATHAN KENTWR SERET
★3—60100%-33—
89
CAMARI WILLIAMSWR SERET
UNR—5425%-55—
88
THOMAS SCULLYTE SERET
UNR—4917%——
23
TYLER BRADLEYWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—474%——
80
AKALEA KAPONOTE SERET
★2—4616%——
84
REGIS VELEZWR SERET
UNR—368%——
81
COLIN O'CONNORWR SERET
UNR—285%——
87
D.J. DONOVANTE SERET
UNR—142%——
15
JOHN MEAGHERWR SERET
★2—00%——
85
JAKE NORRISTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
94
GRACEN BELLTE SORET
★3—00%——
13
MARTEL CARRUTHERSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
0
KROY MYERSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
8
DREW TURNERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
CASEY SMITHWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
0
KENDALL EVANSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
86
JOSHUA GUERINWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
97
TYLER EDWARDSTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL34TAL9PERF34RET78n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL58TAL32PERF58RET80n=9 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸LB59TAL9PERF59RET74n=5 · 10 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸DB51TAL23PERF51RET99n=7 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS21 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ROBERT JONES IIIHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
BRAXTON WOODSONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
TYSON SIMMONSHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
BEN REILANDHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
LOGAN ROUSEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JAI HUNDLEYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
TYSON WILKERSONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
GAVIN NOEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
XAVYER ARRINGTONHS RECRUITDL★2UNR
TREY DUNNHS RECRUITQBUNRUNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT23 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MAQUEL HAYWOODAPP STATERBUNR★2
KIP FRANKLANDELIGIBILITY UPOT★2—
JOHN MARSHALLELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
NICHOLAS STRAWELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
AHMAD BRADLEYELIGIBILITY UPDL★2—
MARK WALKERELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
JAMIE ROMOELIGIBILITY UPOTUNR—
MICHAEL NAZEELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
TAYLOR ROBINSONELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
JOSEPH PETTIELIGIBILITY UPOT★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES23%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS57%4 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#131NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8115COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
03 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST75% BACK75th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG75% BACK75th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR78%78th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR69%69th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST99%99th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE