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HOME›TEAMS›NC STATE›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
ACC|DAVE DOEREN|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
NC STATE39 FPIACC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
75FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
10%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#644 BC / 12
BC RATIO
23%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.9
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE42
PERFORMANCE42
TALENT58
CONTINUITY10
DEFENSE88
PERFORMANCE88
TALENT65
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
56MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3AEAST CAROLINA—W 21-20424848+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HCHARLESTON SOUTHERN—W 55-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 17HTEXAS TECH—W 27-14696969-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HUCONN—W 41-1091515+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1ACLEMSON#13L 20-30979191-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HFLORIDA STATE#11W 19-17888383-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15ASYRACUSE—L 9-24535353+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 27HVIRGINIA TECH—W 22-21632525+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5HWAKE FOREST—W 30-21526868-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HBOSTON COLLEGE—L 20-21701313+50BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19ALOUISVILLE—L 10-25577171-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25ANORTH CAROLINA—W 30-27896565-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 30HMARYLAND—L 12-16737676-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB58TAL62PERF58RET66ROTATIONn=4 · 7 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
DEVIN LEARYQB SERET
★4★46941%-6HELD
10
BEN FINLEYQB SERET
★3★36125%-34HELD
19
MJ MORRISQB JUNO SNAPS
★4★35819%+3FELL
14
JACK CHAMBERSQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—5315%-45—
12
ZO WALLACEQB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
13
ETHAN RHODESQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB54TAL65PERF54RET85ONE OWNERn=5 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
JORDAN HOUSTONRB SERET
★3★39147%-4HELD
DEMIE SUMO-KARNGBAYERB SERET
★3★46618%+17ROSE
21
MICHAEL ALLENRB JUNO SNAPS
★4★46316%-9HELD
1
JULIAN GRAYRB SERET
★3★4575%-16ROSE
28
DEMARCUS JONES IIRB SERET
UNR—5510%-55—
34
DELBERT MIMMS IIIRB SERET
★3★3528%-9HELD
36
DEVIN GARDNERRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—191%——
3
JORDAN POOLERB JURET
★4—00%——
22
MICAH CROWELLRB SORET
★4—00%——
▾WR/TE46TAL61PERF46RET71ROTATIONn=9 · 7 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
THAYER THOMASWR SERET
UNR—9424%+8—
15
KEYON LESANEWR SERET
★3—8922%-31—
14
CEDD SEABROUGHTE SORET
★3—7941%-39—
11
DARRYL JONESWR SENO SNAPS
★4—7615%-25—
5
DEVIN CARTERWR SERET
★3★47413%+21ROSE
9
PORTER ROOKSWR SERET
★4★37213%-50FELL
6
TRENT PENNIXTE SERET
★3—6021%+19—
15
CHRIS TOUDLETE SERET
★3★35920%+27HELD
87
KAMERON WALKERTE SORET
★3—5313%——
4
TERRELL TIMMONS JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3★3503%—HELD
9
ANTHONY SMITHWR SERET
★3★3432%—HELD
21
JALEN COITWR JURET
★3★3281%—HELD
48
FRED SEABROUGH JR.TE SORET
★3—252%——
43
EZEMDI UDOHTE SORET
★3—242%——
84
JASIAH PROVILLONWR JURET
★3★3180%—HELD
6
ASHTON LOCKLEARWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—130%——
31
DILLON MOSLEYWR FRRET
UNR—100%——
83
JOSH CRABTREEWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
11
JAKOLBE BALDWINWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
35
CHRISTOPHER SCOTT JR.WR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
20
MICHAEL FOXWR JURET
UNR—00%——
88
JACKSON DESILVAWR SERET
UNR—00%——
44
YATES JOHNSONTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
49
REID MITCHELLTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL65TAL52PERF65RET20n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL54TAL66PERF54RET82n=7 · 7 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸LB72TAL75PERF72RET98n=4 · 11 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸DB59TAL59PERF59RET98n=8 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MICHAEL ALLENHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
T.K. WRIGHTHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
BRANDON CLEVELANDHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
MJ MORRISHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
JACARRIUS PEAKHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DAEJUAN THOMPSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
NICK CAMPBELLHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ISAIAH CROWELLHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JACKSON VICKHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TERRELL TIMMONS JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT16 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TERRELL DAWKINSSOUTH CAROLINADL★3★3
NEHKI MEREDITHJAMES MADISONCB★3UNR
IBRAHIM KANTEBUFFALODE★3UNR
C.J. RILEYELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
DYLAN PARHAMELIGIBILITY UPTEUNR—
CHRIS INGRAMELIGIBILITY UPCB★3—
EMEKA EMEZIEELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
DANIEL JOSEPHELIGIBILITY UPDL★4—
AARON MCLAUGHLINNOT LISTEDQB★4—
VI JONESNOT LISTEDLB★5—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#64NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
4OF 12 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8761COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST62% BACK62th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG62% BACK62th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR20%20th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR66%66th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST98%98th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE