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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG TEN|MATT RHULE|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
NEBRASKA45 FPIB1G · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
86FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
61%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
63%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-25IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#2212 BC / 20
BC RATIO
39%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.3
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE64
PERFORMANCE64
TALENT80
CONTINUITY61
DEFENSE45
PERFORMANCE45
TALENT76
CONTINUITY63
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
62MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28ACINCINNATI—W 20-17475959+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HAKRON—W 68-0251414+52BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HHOUSTON CHRISTIAN—W 59-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20HMICHIGAN#21L 27-30938282-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HMICHIGAN STATE—W 38-27734040+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AMARYLAND—W 34-31634545+21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 17AMINNESOTA—L 6-24714949+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HNORTHWESTERN—W 28-21596363+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HUSC#20L 17-21888989-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AUCLA—W 28-21822828+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22APENN STATE—L 10-37939090-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28HIOWA#17L 16-40709292-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 31AUTAH#14L 22-44699595-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB38TAL96PERF38RET67ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
DYLAN RAIOLAQB JURET
★5★47965%+24FELL
14
TJ LATEEFQB SONO SNAPS
★4—7033%+5—
12
JALYN GRAMSTADQB SERET
UNR—151%——
16
MARCOS DAVILAQB FRPORTAL · PURDUE
★4★300%—FELL
17
LUKE LONGVALQB JURET
UNR—00%——
11
BODE SOUKUPQB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾RB70TAL54PERF70RET88ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
EMMETT JOHNSONRB JURET
★3★310073%+13HELD
22
ISAIAH MOZEERB SONO SNAPS
★4—6111%-32—
35
MEKHI NELSONRB SORET
★3—5910%+7—
21
KWINTEN IVESRB JURET
★3—465%+31—
32
KENNETH WILLIAMSRB JURET
UNR★3181%—EMERGED
23
CONOR BOOTHRB FRTRUE FR
★3—131%——
45
IZAAC DICKEYRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
24
JAMARION PARKERRB FRTRUE FR
★4★300%—FELL
32
TRENT UHLIRRB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE55TAL88PERF56RET60ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
44
LUKE LINDENMEYERTE SERET
UNR—9769%+4—
13
NYZIAH HUNTERWR JUPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★4★49028%+13HELD
18
DANE KEYWR SEPORTAL · KENTUCKY
★4★49028%+24HELD
2
JACORY BARNEY JR.WR JURET
★4—8928%+2—
10
HEINRICH HAARBERGTE SERET
★3—6519%-10—
18
QUINN CLARKWR SORET
★3—597%+14—
19
CORTEZ MILLS JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★4—576%+23—
29
CARTER NELSONTE JURET
★4—517%-21—
15
KEELAN SMITHWR SORET
★3—382%——
82
ERIC INGWERSONTE SORET
★3—333%——
48
CAYDEN ECHTERNACHTE JURET
UNR—322%——
4
JANIRAN BONNERWR SERET
★4—140%-59—
26
ROMAN MANGINIWR SERET
UNR—110%——
30
DJ SINGLETONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—60%——
49
DANNY KINGTE SORET
UNR—40%——
46
CONNOR SCHUTTWR SORET
UNR—00%——
80
JEREMIAH JONESWR FRTRUE FR
★4—00%——
88
JACKSON CARPENTERWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
87
MAC MARKWAYTE JURET
★4—00%——
11
DEMITRIUS BELLWR JURET
★3—00%——
81
HAYES MILLERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
▸OL54TAL77PERF54RET63n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL51TAL84PERF51RET67n=10 · 7 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸LB56TAL74PERF56RET60n=4 · 11 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸DB61TAL71PERF61RET63n=8 · 8 METRICS · 41 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CORTEZ MILLS JR.HS RECRUITWR★4UNR
DAWSON MERRITTHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
CHRISTIAN JONESHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
TJ LATEEFHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
MALCOLM SIMPSONHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
ISAIAH MOZEEHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
JEREMIAH JONESHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
KADE PIETRZAKHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
JAMARION PARKERHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
BRYSON WEBBERHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DANE KEYKENTUCKYWR★4★4
WILLIAMS NWANERIMISSOURIEDGE★5★4
ELIJAH PRITCHETTALABAMAOT★4★4
ROCCO SPINDLERNOTRE DAMEIOL★4★4
DASAN MCCULLOUGHOKLAHOMALB★4★4
NYZIAH HUNTERCALIFORNIAWR★4★4
ANDREW MARSHALLIDAHOCB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT43 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JIMARI BUTLERLSUDE★3★3
MIKAI GBAYORNORTH CAROLINALB★3★4
NATE BOERKIRCHERTEXAS A&MTEUNR★3
PRINCEWILL UMANMIELENOLE MISSDE★4★5
DANTE DOWDELLKENTUCKYRB★4★4
JAMES WILLIAMSFLORIDA STATEDEUNR★3
STEFON THOMPSONFLORIDA STATELB★3★3
JAYLEN LLOYDOKLAHOMA STATEWR★3★3
KAI WALLINOREGON STATEDLUNR★3
VINCENT CARROLL-JACKSONUCONNDT★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES51%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS57%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#22NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
12OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8965COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1540 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
28TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
11
6
3
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.3 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +4 W
IMPROVED7 OF 28
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST76% BACK76th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG76% BACK76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR63%63th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR67%67th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST63%63th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE