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HOME›TEAMS›NEW MEXICO STATE›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
CONFERENCE USA|JERRY KILL|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
NEW MEXICO STATE121 FPICUSA · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
7FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
1%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1080 BC / 22
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
6-6ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+1.3
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE34
PERFORMANCE34
TALENT53
CONTINUITY1
DEFENSE18
PERFORMANCE18
TALENT19
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
28MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 27HNEVADA—L 12-232444+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
1SEP 1AMINNESOTA—L 0-38648888-76BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10AUTEP—L 13-20102525-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17AWISCONSIN—L 7-66826868-56BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HHAWAI'I—W 45-262622+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—L 7-213422+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15HNEW MEXICO—W 21-91211+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29AMASSACHUSETTS—W 23-131200+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HLAMAR—W 51-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
12NOV 19AMISSOURI—L 14-45786767-55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26ALIBERTY—W 49-1464444-32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 3HVALPARAISO—W 65-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
BWLDEC 26ABOWLING GREEN—W 24-192377+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB70TAL58PERF70RET2ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
DIEGO PAVIAQB SENO SNAPS
UNR★37164%+10EMERGED
13
GAVIN FRAKESQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★36134%-22EMERGED
17
WESTON EGETQB SORET
★3—132%——
15
DINO MALDONADOQB JURET
UNR—00%——
22
BRYCE BEARSSQB SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
23
JEFF DAVISONQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB56TAL69PERF56RET4ONE OWNERn=3 · 5 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
STAR THOMASRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★37861%+34EMERGED
8
MONTE WATKINSRB JUNO SNAPS
★4★45421%-36HELD
20
TIM GANSRB SERET
UNR—4411%+8—
5
O'MAURY SAMUELSRB SERET
UNR—274%-36—
22
MAKHILYN YOUNGRB SENO SNAPS
★2★3172%—ROSE
25
BRAYLON STEWARTRB FRTRUE FR
★3—51%——
33
JAMONI JONESRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%-42EMERGED
21
ALEX ESCOBARRB JURET
UNR—00%——
16
LARENZO MCMILLANRB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE38TAL46PERF45RET45ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
85
THOMAZ WHITFORDTE SERET
★3—8058%-30—
6
JUSTICE POWERSWR SERET
UNR—7722%+35—
11
KORDELL DAVIDWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—7622%+6—
0
JONATHAN BRADYWR SENO SNAPS
★2★37420%+27ROSE
1
CHRIS BELLAMYWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—6513%+33—
5
BRYCE CHILDRESSWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3599%+26HELD
2
JORDIN PARKERWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3578%-8HELD
48
ERIC MARSHTE SERET
★2—5320%——
87
J.J. JONES IIITE SENO SNAPS
UNR—5218%-24—
7
TERRELL WARNERWR SERET
★2—505%-39—
88
TREVOR STEPHENSTE JUNO SNAPS
★2—43100%——
9
KAREEM BURGESSTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—233%——
83
LAWRENCE DIXONWR SERET
UNR—201%——
17
DOMINIC GICINTOWR SERET
★3★3171%+26HELD
10
TA'IR BROOKSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★3171%—EMERGED
46
KHEAGIAN HECKAMANTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR★291%—EMERGED
88
JACOB FRANKLINTE JURET
UNR—71%——
82
SOL RASCONWR SERET
UNR—70%——
86
BRAXTON MCDONALDWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
73
LUTERU FEDLERTE SORET
★3—00%——
0
PJ JOHNSON IIIWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
87
GRANT OBERHEUTE FRRET
★2—00%——
6
RON VANN JR.WR SERET
UNR—00%——
36
ETHAN SINGLETONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
49
ERIK CUETOWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL52TAL0PERF52RET0n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL52TAL27PERF52RET59n=9 · 7 METRICS · 38 OBS
▸LB39TAL16PERF39RET84n=8 · 11 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸DB58TAL14PERF58RET61n=9 · 6 METRICS · 37 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LOUIE CANEPAHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JAI RODRIQUEZHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
AJ VAIPULUHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
RASHAD MCKINLEYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JADEN ROBINSONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
KEYSHAUN ELLIOTTHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
MALACHI MCLEANHS RECRUITS★3UNR
GABE PETERSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
PIERCE HUMPICHHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
COOPER SHEEHANHS RECRUITOT★2UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT18 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ISAIAH GARCIA-CASTANEDANEBRASKAWRUNR★2
COLE HARRITYBUFFALOWR★2UNR
JUWAUN PRICESYRACUSERB★2★3
IVAN ESCOBARELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
ROBERT DOWNS IIIELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
MICHAEL BOWE JR.ELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
BRENNON DAVISELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
JARED WYATTELIGIBILITY UPWR★2—
SAGE DOXTATERELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
CALEB MILLSELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#108NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8098COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST29% BACK29th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG29% BACK29th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR2%2th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST61%61th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE