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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
ACC|BILL BELICHICK|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
NORTH CAROLINA91 FPIACC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
78FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
41%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
36%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-16IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#411 BC / 30
BC RATIO
23%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-5.3
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE24
PERFORMANCE24
TALENT71
CONTINUITY41
DEFENSE54
PERFORMANCE54
TALENT80
CONTINUITY36
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
49MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1HTCU#25L 14-48777373-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6ACHARLOTTE—W 20-32211+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HRICHMOND—W 41-6————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20AUCF—L 9-34694444-11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HCLEMSON—L 10-38967676-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 17ACALIFORNIA—L 18-21744141-8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HVIRGINIA#16L 16-17557878-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10OCT 31ASYRACUSE—W 27-10761616+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HSTANFORD—W 20-15671818+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AWAKE FOREST—L 12-28476262-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HDUKE—L 25-32586868-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ANC STATE—L 19-42686060-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB59TAL70PERF59RET23ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
GIO LOPEZQB JUPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
★3★38176%+28HELD
7
MAX JOHNSONQB SERET
★4★36423%-6FELL
10
AU'TORI NEWKIRKQB FRTRUE FR
★3—181%——
2
BRYCE BAKERQB FRTRUE FR
★4★300%—FELL
15
DJ MAZZONEQB SORET
UNR—00%——
18
ANDRES MIYARES JR.QB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾RB31TAL68PERF31RET37ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
DEMON JUNERB SONO SNAPS
★3—8033%+14—
7
DAVION GAUSERB JURET
★3★37627%-11HELD
7
BENJAMIN HALLRB JUPORTAL · MICHIGAN
★3★37324%-43HELD
4
CALEB HOODRB SERET
★3★45710%-1ROSE
27
JAYLEN MCGILLRB SONO SNAPS
★3—486%——
23
CHARLESTON FRENCHRB JURET
★3—60%+37—
26
JOJO TROUPERB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
20
JAYLON NICHOLSRB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE32TAL64PERF40RET68ROTATIONn=10 · 8 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
JORDAN SHIPPWR JURET
★4—9332%+5—
8
KOBE PAYSOURWR SERET
★3★38827%-2HELD
19
JAKE JOHNSONTE SERET
★4★37635%-18FELL
80
JORDAN OWENSTE SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
UNR★37431%—EMERGED
4
JAVARIUS GREENWR SORET
★3★36913%-13HELD
88
CONNOR COXTE SEPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
★3★36419%—HELD
3
CHRIS CULLIVERWR JURET
★4★3607%+27FELL
11
NATHAN LEACOCKWR JUPORTAL · PURDUE
★4★3566%-50FELL
88
ALEX TAYLORWR JURET
★4★3555%-64FELL
86
MADRID TUCKERWR FRTRUE FR
★3—555%-49—
85
SHANARD CLOWERWR FRTRUE FR
★3—545%+11—
87
CORT HALSEYTE SORET
★2—487%——
84
SHAMAR EASTERTE JUPORTAL · ARKANSAS
★4★3477%—FELL
81
AZIAH JOHNSONWR SOPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★3★3110%+20HELD
5
JASON ROBINSON JR.WR FRPORTAL · WASHINGTON
★3★360%—HELD
89
PAUL BARTONTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
17
ADRIAN WILSONWR FRPORTAL · COLORADO
★4★300%—FELL
11
PAUL BILLUPS IIWR SORET
★3★300%-62HELD
88
DEEMS MAYTE SERET
UNR—00%——
6
DAYTON SNEEDWR JUPORTAL · TENNESSEE
UNR★300%—EMERGED
83
KENEDY UZOMAWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
82
YASIR SMITHTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▸OL46TAL74PERF46RET22n=7 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL46TAL83PERF46RET25n=7 · 7 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸LB73TAL68PERF73RET2n=4 · 11 METRICS · 24 OBS
▸DB53TAL81PERF53RET48n=11 · 8 METRICS · 61 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS10 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRYCE BAKERHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
AUSTIN ALEXANDERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JAYLEN MCGILLHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CHINEDU ONYEAGOROHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
AU'TORI NEWKIRKHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JAVION BUTTSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TYLER HOUSERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
BYRON NELSONHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DEVIN ANCRUMHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
EVAN HAYNESHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN15 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
THADDEUS DIXONWASHINGTONCBUNR★4
DANIEL KINGHUDSON VALLEYOT★2★4
PRYCE YATESUCONNDL★3★4
KHMORI HOUSEWASHINGTONLB★3★4
SMITH VILBERTPENN STATEEDGE★3★4
MIKAI GBAYORMISSOURILB★3★4
D'ANTRE ROBINSONFLORIDADL★4★4
ISAIAH JOHNSONARIZONADL★3★3
GREG SMITHFLORIDAS★4★3
CHRISTO KELLYHOLY CROSSIOLUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT44 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
HOWARD SAMPSONTEXAS TECHOL★3★3
AMARE CAMPBELLPENN STATELB★3★3
JACOLBY CRISWELLEAST TENNESSEE STATEQB★4★3
BEAU ATKINSONOHIO STATEDE★4★4
TRAVIS SHAWTEXASDL★5★4
MALIK MCGOWANUNLVOL★3★3
ZACH GREENBERGJAMES MADISONOLUNR★3
TYRANE STEWARTNORTH TEXASCBUNR★3
MICHAEL SHORTVIRGINIA TECHLB★3★3
CHRISTIAN HAMILTONWEST VIRGINIAWR★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES79%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS77%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#41NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 30 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8595COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3955 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST17% BACK17th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG17% BACK17th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR22%22th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR23%23th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST48%48th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE