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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|ERIC MORRIS|—RECORD12-2|CONF—
NORTH TEXAS#24 AP 41 FPIAAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
31FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
63%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
31%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-15IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1120 BC / 11
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+19.8
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE87
PERFORMANCE87
TALENT59
CONTINUITY63
DEFENSE29
PERFORMANCE29
TALENT43
CONTINUITY31
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
43MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HLAMAR—W 51-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6AWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 33-30244343+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HWASHINGTON STATE—W 59-10315656+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AARMY—W 45-3814646+38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HSOUTH ALABAMA—W 36-22261616+68BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 10HSOUTH FLORIDA—L 36-63567979+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HUTSA—W 55-17535555+29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 24ACHARLOTTE—W 54-202211+83BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HNAVY#23W 31-1716666+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AUAB—W 53-242688+76BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ARICE—W 56-24231212+72BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28HTEMPLE—W 52-25183636+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 5ATULANE#18L 21-34516767+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27ASAN DIEGO STATE—W 49-47386969+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB70TAL99PERF70RET98ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
17
DREW MESTEMAKERQB SORET
UNR★59898%+38EMERGED
7
REESE POFFENBARGERQB SEPORTAL · MIAMI
★3★3222%—HELD
12
CHRIS JIMERSON JR.QB SONO SNAPS
★3—101%——
16
TOM VON GROTEQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾RB77TAL79PERF77RET30ONE OWNERn=5 · 9 METRICS · 25 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
24
CALEB HAWKINSRB SONO SNAPS
★3★49953%+29ROSE
0
MAKENZIE MCGILL IIRB SORET
★3★37518%+16—
21
KIEFER SIBLEYRB JURET
★3★36512%+20HELD
3
ASHTON GRAYRB JURET
★3★36411%+31HELD
5
JAYDEN BECKSRB JUPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE
UNR★3515%+13EMERGED
36
KEENAN JACKSON JR.RB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE60TAL56PERF65RET51ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 42 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
TRE WILLIAMS IIITE SENO SNAPS
UNR—9582%+19—
10
WYATT YOUNGWR JURET
★3★49323%+35ROSE
7
LANDON SIDESWR SERET
★3★39122%+3HELD
4
CAMERON DORNERWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—9122%+35—
1
MILES COLEMANWR JURET
★3★37714%+31HELD
3
SIMEON EVANSWR SEPORTAL · SAM HOUSTON
★3★3647%+23HELD
3
TERRENCE LEWISWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3626%+20HELD
89
BRANDON YOUNG JR.TE JURET
★3★35715%-44HELD
80
BARON TIPTONWR JURET
★3—473%-62—
11
DALTON CARNESWR SERET
UNR★3392%+5EMERGED
8
SHANDON KINGWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—382%——
88
VICTOR ADERUNGBOYETE JURET
★3—313%——
14
KYLE KOCHWR JURET
★3—201%——
81
CHRIS LEWISWR SONO SNAPS
★4—110%——
86
GRANT GAINERTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
9
TYRESE HUNT-THOMPSONWR SEPORTAL · FERRIS STATE
UNR★300%—EMERGED
23
TYLER BROWNWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
88
MARCELLUS CRUTCHFIELDWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
CONNOR VAUGHNTE SEPORTAL · TULSA
★3★300%-35HELD
84
JACKSON MUCKELROYTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
31
ZACHARY YANGWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL50TAL47PERF50RET66n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL35TAL47PERF35RET14n=11 · 7 METRICS · 54 OBS
▸LB37TAL51PERF37RET49n=5 · 11 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸DB47TAL37PERF47RET34n=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS7 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN REASONOVERHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CHRIS JIMERSON JR.HS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JADEN MANNINGHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
TERRENCE LEWISHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
BRAYDEN KNOXHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
CALEB HAWKINSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
TYLER BROWNHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN18 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRICEON HAYESSAM HOUSTONEDGE★3★3
JULIAN KNOXTCUS★3★3
REESE POFFENBARGERMIAMIQB★3★3
ISAIAH COLLINSTEXAS TECHCB★3★3
DA'VEAWN ARMSTEADSAM HOUSTONCB★3★3
CONNOR VAUGHNTULSATE★3★3
TAY YANTAABILENE CHRISTIANIOLUNR★3
JAYDEN BECKSMISSOURI STATERBUNR★3
JAYMON LAMBSTEPHEN F. AUSTINOTUNR★3
AVION CARTERTCUDL★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT43 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRIAN NELSON IINC STATECB★3★3
CHANDLER MORRISVIRGINIAQB★4★3
TYLER MERCERKANSASOL★3★3
BREYLON CHARLESPURDUEDLUNR★3
DT SHEFFIELDRUTGERSWRUNR★3
CHAVEZ BROWNSOUTH FLORIDALBUNR★3
MA'KYI LEENEW MEXICO STATEOLUNR★3
SHANE PORTERSAM HOUSTONRBUNR★3
JAYVEN ANDERSONHOUSTON CHRISTIANS★3★3
NATHAN LAPERISOUTH DAKOTADLUNRUNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES62%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS60%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#112NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 11 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8411COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3348 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST51% BACK51th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG51% BACK51th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR66%66th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST34%34th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE