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● LIVE|2018 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›NORTHWESTERN›2018TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2018 FINAL
BIG TEN|PAT FITZGERALD|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
NORTHWESTERN#21 AP 37 FPIB1G · 2018 SEASON
TALENT
69FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#581 BC / 18
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
8-5ACTUALvs6.6-6.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+0.2
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
64MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30APURDUE—W 31-27496767-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 8HDUKE—L 7-21726161-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 15HAKRON—L 34-392088+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29HMICHIGAN#14L 17-20959393-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 6AMICHIGAN STATE—W 29-19767878-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 13HNEBRASKA—W 34-31826262-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20ARUTGERS—W 18-15571717+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 27HWISCONSIN—W 31-17758686-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 3HNOTRE DAME#5L 21-31939191-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 10AIOWA#25W 14-10708383-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 17AMINNESOTA—W 24-14666666-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24HILLINOIS—W 24-16582626+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 1AOHIO STATE#3L 24-451009696-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET95NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
CLAYTON THORSONQB SERET
UNR—00%——
10
TJ GREENQB SERET
UNR—00%——
11
AIDAN SMITHQB SERET
★3—00%——
7
ANDREW MARTYQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET25NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
ISAIAH BOWSERRB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
20
JOHN MOTEN IVRB SERET
UNR—00%——
28
JEREMY LARKINRB SORET
★3—00%——
26
CHAD HANAOKARB SERET
UNR—00%——
21
DRAKE ANDERSONRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
36
JESSE BROWNRB SERET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
BERKELEY HOLMANWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
80
TREY PUGHTE JURET
★3—00%——
3
JJ JEFFERSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
4
SOLOMON VAULTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
5
CHARLIE FESSLERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
83
TRENT GOENSTE SERET
UNR—00%——
6
JELANI ROBERTSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
2
FLYNN NAGELWR SERET
UNR—00%——
81
RAMAUD CHIAOKHIAO-BOWMANWR SERET
★3—00%——
19
RILEY LEESWR SERET
★3—00%——
11
BENNETT SKOWRONEKWR SERET
★3—00%——
2
KYRIC MCGOWANWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
17
JALEN BROWNWR SERET
UNR—00%——
23
STEVEN REESEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
85
JACKSON TIRMONIAWR SORET
UNR—00%——
5
JACE JAMESWR JURET
★3—00%——
82
ALEX OELSNERTE JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
83
WILL LANSBURYWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
CHARLIE MANGIERITE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
87
MASON SUITTWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEVIN O'ROURKEHS RECRUITSDE★4UNR
EKU LEOTAHS RECRUITWDE★3UNR
KHALID JONES IIHS RECRUITILB★3UNR
WYATT BLAKEHS RECRUITOG★3UNR
GREG NEWSOMEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ISAIAH BOWSERHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JASON WHITTAKERHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
JEREMIAH MCDONALDHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JACOB JEFFERSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
PAYNE HE'BERTHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT14 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JUSTIN JACKSONNFL DRAFT R7RBUNR—
COREY ACKERNOT LISTEDRBUNR—
MATT ALVITINOT LISTEDQBUNR—
GODWIN IGWEBUIKENOT LISTEDSUNR—
TYLER LANCASTERNOT LISTEDDLUNR—
WARREN LONGNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
MARCUS MCSHEPARDNOT LISTEDDBUNR—
KYLE QUEIRONOT LISTEDSUNR—
BRETT WALSHNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
MACAN WILSONNOT LISTEDWRUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#58NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8543COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST64% BACK64th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG64% BACK64th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR95%95th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE