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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
BIG TEN|PAT FITZGERALD|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
NORTHWESTERN94 FPIB1G · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
69FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#503 BC / 16
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-9ACTUALvs2.5-9.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-12.4
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
64MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3HMICHIGAN STATE#9L 21-38747979-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11HINDIANA STATE—W 24-6————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 18ADUKE—L 23-30571313+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25HOHIO—W 35-6151717+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2ANEBRASKA—L 7-56827373-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 16HRUTGERS—W 21-7543333-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23AMICHIGAN#3L 7-33909898-79BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30HMINNESOTA—L 14-41698787-68BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6HIOWA#23L 12-17708080-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13AWISCONSIN—L 7-35859595-76BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20HPURDUE—L 14-32677373-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27AILLINOIS—L 14-47645151-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
HUNTER JOHNSONQB SERET
★3—00%——
7
ANDREW MARTYQB JURET
★3—00%——
3
RYAN HILINSKIQB SEPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
★4★300%—FELL
9
CARL RICHARDSONQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
16
ZAC KRAUSEQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
6
BRENDAN SULLIVANQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET11NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
31
JAKE ARTHURSRB SERET
UNR—00%——
2
ANTHONY TYUS IIIRB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
22
CONNOR NEWHOUSERB JURET
UNR—00%——
29
MARCUS CISCORB SERET
UNR—00%——
11
ANDREW CLAIRRB SEPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
★3★300%—HELD
26
EVAN HULLRB JURET
★3—00%——
4
CAM PORTERRB SERET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
JACOB GILLWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
4
BERKELEY HOLMANWR JURET
★3—00%——
88
MARSHALL LANGTE SERET
★3—00%——
5
STEPHON ROBINSON JR.WR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
TREY PUGHTE JURET
★3—00%——
3
JJ JEFFERSONWR JURET
★3—00%——
23
RAYMOND NIRO IIIWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
CHARLIE MANGIERITE SERET
★3—00%——
5
CALVIN JOHNSON IIWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
9
JORDAN MOSLEYWR SENO SNAPS
★4★400%—HELD
9
GENSON HOOPER PRICEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
8
WAYNE DENNIS JR.WR JURET
UNR—00%——
17
BRYCE KIRTZWR SERET
★3—00%——
4
MALIK WASHINGTONWR SEPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN
★3★300%—HELD
87
THOMAS GORDONTE SERET
★3—00%——
83
WILL LANSBURYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
42
JASON WHITTAKERTE JURET
★3—00%——
12
BRAEDEN HEALDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
2
DUKE OLGESTE SERET
★3—00%——
84
HUNTER WELCINGTE SERET
★3★400%—ROSE
85
JACK KENNEDYWR SERET
UNR—00%——
13
PRESTON BACONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
12
DONNIE GRAYWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
86
LAWSON ALBRIGHTTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
87
JACK MOSESWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
4
COLE FREEMANWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
JASPER STRATTONWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN MOSLEYHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
MAC UIHLEINHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
CALEB TIERNANHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
NAJEE STORYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ANTHONY TYUS IIIHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
BRENDAN SULLIVANHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
AIDAN HUBBARDHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
THERAN JOHNSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
LAWSON ALBRIGHTHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
GARNER WALLACEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RYAN HILINSKISOUTH CAROLINAPRO★4★3
JEREMY MEISEROLD DOMINIONDL★2★3
TRENT CARRINGTONPRESBYTERIANCB★3★3
STEPHON ROBINSONKANSASWRUNR★3
ANDREW CLAIRBOWLING GREENRB★3★3
JEFFERY POOLERWEST VIRGINIAEDGEUNR★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT19 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GUNNER MALDONADOARIZONAS★3★3
ISAIAH BOWSERUCFRB★3★3
DRAKE ANDERSONARIZONARB★3★3
CAMERON RUIZTEMPLECB★3★3
EKU LEOTAAUBURNLB★3UNR
KYRIC MCGOWANGEORGIA TECHWR★3★3
EARNEST BROWN IVNFL DRAFT R5DL★4—
GREG NEWSOME IINFL DRAFT R1DB★3—
JOHN RAINEELIGIBILITY UPTE★2—
TYLER GILLIKINELIGIBILITY UPLSUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#50NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8658COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
67 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST18% BACK18th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG18% BACK18th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE