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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG TEN|DAVID BRAUN|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
NORTHWESTERN56 FPIB1G · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
59FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
58%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+2IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#660 BC / 22
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+1.6
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE48
PERFORMANCE48
TALENT62
CONTINUITY58
DEFENSE58
PERFORMANCE58
TALENT69
CONTINUITY79
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
60MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30ATULANE#18L 3-23516767-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 5HWESTERN ILLINOIS—W 42-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13HOREGON#4L 14-34979898-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HUCLA—W 17-14822828+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HUL MONROE—W 42-71044+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11APENN STATE—W 22-21939090-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HPURDUE—W 19-0613434+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25ANEBRASKA—L 21-28866666-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 7AUSC#20L 17-38888989-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HMICHIGAN#21L 22-24938282-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HMINNESOTA—W 38-35714949+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AILLINOIS—L 13-20548383-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 34-7122626+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB45TAL64PERF45RET2ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
PRESTON STONEQB SEPORTAL · SMU
★4★38998%+19FELL
2
RYAN BOEQB SORET
★3—222%——
13
GAVIN FRAKESQB SEPORTAL · VIRGINIA
UNR★300%-22EMERGED
12
MARCUS ROMAINQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
15
SEAN WINTONQB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾RB53TAL58PERF53RET95ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
CALEB KOMOLAFERB JURET
★3—9453%-17—
6
JOSEPH HIMON IIRB SERET
★3—8536%-11—
4
CAM PORTERRB SERET
★3—496%-22—
24
DASHUN REEDERRB FRRET
★3★3414%+38HELD
22
DANIEL ANDERSONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—131%——
26
ALBERT KUNICKIS IIIRB SORET
UNR—00%——
36
RONNY JOHNSONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE52TAL64PERF54RET56ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
17
GRIFFIN WILDEWR SEPORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
UNR★39636%+31EMERGED
86
LAWSON ALBRIGHTTE SERET
★3—8835%-40—
84
HUNTER WELCINGTE SERET
★3★48734%+22ROSE
8
HAYDEN ELIGON IIWR JURET
★3—8425%+22—
83
BLAKE VAN BURENTE SERET
UNR—7017%——
10
RICKY AHUMARAEZEWR JURET
★3—6712%+3—
19
DREW WAGNERWR JURET
★2—6611%-14—
3
FRANK COVEY IVWR JURET
★3—597%-25—
88
ALEX LINESTE SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
★3★3579%-32HELD
87
CARSON GROVEWR SORET
★3—566%-63—
41
ROBBY PRECKELTE SONO SNAPS
★3—464%——
20
CHASE FARRELLWR SOPORTAL · STANFORD
★3★3423%—HELD
81
CHRIS PETRUCCITE SERET
★3—221%——
14
DUBE ENONGENEWR FRTRUE FR
★3—151%——
18
CAMP MAGEETE JURET
★3—00%——
82
BRADEN BLUEITTWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
48
TYLER KIELMEYERTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
43
NOAH LAPORTETE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
35
TATE CRANEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
CAM RUSSELLWR SORET
UNR—00%——
16
BRENNAN SAXEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL75TAL63PERF75RET65n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL51TAL68PERF51RET87n=10 · 7 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB40TAL78PERF40RET91n=3 · 10 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DB51TAL66PERF51RET68n=9 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DANIEL ANDERSONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CADEN O'ROURKEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
MASON MAYNEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TYLER KIELMEYERHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
MICHAEL O'CONNELLHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JON JON STEVENS JR.HS RECRUITATH★3UNR
MARQUET DORSEY JR.HS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BRADEN BLUEITTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MARCUS ROMAINHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
TREY BOYDHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GRIFFIN WILDESOUTH DAKOTA STATEWRUNR★3
JACK SADOWSKY VIOWA STATELB★3★3
DILLON TATUMMICHIGAN STATES★4★3
MARTES LEWISMINNESOTAIOL★3★3
PRESTON STONESMUQB★4★3
FRED DAVIS IIJACKSONVILLE STATECBUNR★3
XAVIOR GRAYLIBERTYOTUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT31 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
THERAN JOHNSONOREGONDB★3★3
JOSH THOMPSONLSUOL★3★4
KENNY SOARES JR.NC STATEEDGE★3★3
CALVIN JOHNSON IITULSAWR★3★3
MIKE WRIGHT JR.EAST CAROLINAQB★3★3
DONNIE GRAYMASSACHUSETTSWR★3★3
BRAEDEN EDWARDSLIBERTYOLUNRUNR
BEN WRATHERELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
COOPER LOVELACEELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
COCO AZEMAELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES33%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS73%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#66NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8523COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1412 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
16TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
1
2
2
6
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-0.3 TO +3.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +9 W
IMPROVED11 OF 16
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST82% BACK82th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG82% BACK82th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR65%65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR2%2th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST68%68th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE