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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SEC|BRENT VENABLES|—RECORD10-3|CONF—
OKLAHOMA#13 AP 15 FPISEC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
91FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
36%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
82%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-14IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1712 BC / 18
BC RATIO
60%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
10-2ACTUALvs9.8-2.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+12.5
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE58
PERFORMANCE58
TALENT84
CONTINUITY36
DEFENSE99
PERFORMANCE99
TALENT90
CONTINUITY82
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
73MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HILLINOIS STATE—W 35-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6HMICHIGAN#21W 24-13938282+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13ATEMPLE—W 42-3183636+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HAUBURN—W 24-17917979+11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HKENT STATE—W 44-0744+86BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11ATEXAS#12L 6-23988888+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ASOUTH CAROLINA—W 26-7886464+26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HOLE MISS#3L 26-34859696-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ATENNESSEE—W 33-27898787+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AALABAMA#9W 23-21998686+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HMISSOURI—W 17-6858585+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HLSU—W 17-13967777+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 19HALABAMA#9L 24-34998686+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB53TAL97PERF53RET7ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
JOHN MATEERQB SEPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
★3★49592%+28ROSE
3
MICHAEL HAWKINS JR.QB SORET
★4★3477%+1FELL
16
WHITT NEWBAUERQB SOPORTAL · MERCER
UNR★3151%—EMERGED
15
JETT NIUQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB38TAL84PERF39RET44ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
TORY BLAYLOCKRB SONO SNAPS
★4—9048%-43—
21
XAVIER ROBINSONRB JURET
★3—8336%+20—
2
JOVANTAE BARNESRB SERET
★4★3538%-4FELL
0
JAYDN OTTRB SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★4★4517%-5HELD
29
GABE SAWCHUKRB SORET
★3—60%——
8
TAYLOR TATUMRB SORET
★4★300%-13FELL
25
ANDY BASSRB SORET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE77TAL88PERF70RET48ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
ISAIAH SATEGNA IIIWR SENO SNAPS
★4—9830%+5—
4
DEION BURKSWR SERET
★3★49730%-10ROSE
12
JAREN KANAKTE SERET
★4—9157%+27—
11
JV GIBSONWR SEPORTAL · ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
UNR★37614%-11EMERGED
9
KEONTEZ LEWISWR SEPORTAL · SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
★3★37614%+30HELD
87
KADEN HELMSTE SERET
★4★36217%-44FELL
5
JER'MICHAEL CARTERWR SEPORTAL · MCNEESE
UNR★3616%-23EMERGED
85
CARSON KENTTE SEPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
UNR★35814%+20EMERGED
81
WILL HUGGINSTE SEPORTAL · PITTSBURG ST
★3★3539%—HELD
82
IVAN CARREONWR JURET
★4★3432%-45FELL
12
ZION KEARNEYWR JURET
★4★3331%-28FELL
19
KADE MCINTYRETE JURET
★3—282%——
7
JACOB JORDANWR JURET
UNR—251%-7—
14
ELIJAH THOMASWR SONO SNAPS
★4—201%——
6
JOSIAH MARTINWR JUPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★3★3110%-7HELD
22
TRYNAE WASHINGTONTE FRTRUE FR
★4—40%——
44
JOHN LOCKE JR.TE SEPORTAL · LOUISIANA TECH
★3★340%—HELD
7
ZION RAGINSWR SORET
★4★300%-66FELL
85
TREY BROWNWR JURET
★3—00%——
83
MAJOR MELSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
1
JAYDEN GIBSONWR SERET
★4★300%+34FELL
80
JAKEB SNYDERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
28
KJ DANIELSWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
89
ELI MERCKWR JURET
UNR—00%——
21
MANNY CHOICEWR SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
▸OL62TAL79PERF62RET44n=8 · 3 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DL88TAL91PERF88RET86n=10 · 8 METRICS · 62 OBS
▸LB92TAL92PERF92RET75n=6 · 10 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸DB57TAL89PERF57RET77n=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MICHAEL FASUSIHS RECRUITOT★5UNR
RYAN FODJEHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
ELIJAH THOMASHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
TRYSTAN HAYNESHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
TRENT WILSONHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
CJ NICKSONHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
OMARION ROBINSONHS RECRUITS★4UNR
TORY BLAYLOCKHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
MANNY CHOICEHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
TRYNAE WASHINGTONHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOHN MATEERWASHINGTON STATEQB★3★4
MARVIN JONES JR.FLORIDA STATEEDGE★5★4
JAYDN OTTCALIFORNIARB★4★4
KENDAL DANIELSOKLAHOMA STATELB★4★4
DEREK SIMMONSWESTERN CAROLINAOTUNR★3
JER'MICHAEL CARTERMCNEESEWRUNR★3
JAVONNIE GIBSONARKANSAS-PINE BLUFFWRUNR★3
ISAIAH SATEGNAARKANSASWRUNR★3
KEONTEZ LEWISSOUTHERN ILLINOISWR★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT34 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KANI WALKERARKANSASDB★3★3
BAUER SHARPLSUTEUNR★3
JACKSON ARNOLDAUBURNQB★5★3
BRENEN THOMPSONMISSISSIPPI STATEWR★4★3
J.J. HESTERKENTUCKYWR★4★3
DASAN MCCULLOUGHNEBRASKALB★4★4
JOSHUA BATESSMUOL★4★3
LEWIS CARTERUCFLB★4★3
GAVIN SAWCHUKFLORIDA STATERB★4★3
GEIREAN HATCHETTWASHINGTONOL★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES41%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS48%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#17NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
12OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9074COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2034 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST49% BACK49th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG49% BACK49th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR44%44th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR7%7th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST77%77th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE