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● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SUN BELT|RICKY RAHNE|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
OLD DOMINION104 FPISBC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
12FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
71%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
68%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-14IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1220 BC / 21
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-3.3
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE14
PERFORMANCE14
TALENT36
CONTINUITY71
DEFENSE73
PERFORMANCE73
TALENT49
CONTINUITY68
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
48MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2AVIRGINIA TECH—L 17-36586666-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HLOUISIANA—W 38-31315353-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HWAKE FOREST—L 24-27502828-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HEAST TEXAS A&M—W 10-9————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5SEP 30AMARSHALL—L 35-41312626-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7ASOUTHERN MISS—W 17-13231313+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HAPP STATE—W 28-21396161-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AJAMES MADISON—L 27-3058686-63BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HCOASTAL CAROLINA—L 24-28394949-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11ALIBERTY#25L 10-3897575-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 20-17233939-16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HGEORGIA STATE—W 25-24373434-11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 18HWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 35-38364545-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB9TAL27PERF9RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
GRANT WILSONQB SENO SNAPS
UNR★38986%-13EMERGED
3
JACK SHIELDSQB SERET
★3★25114%+3FELL
17
LENDON REDWINEQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
15
TYLER STOTTQB FRRET
★2—00%——
1
COLTON JOSEPHQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB33TAL16PERF33RET62ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
KESHAWN WICKSRB JURET
★2★28336%-17HELD
1
KADARIUS CALLOWAYRB SENO SNAPS
★4★37428%+31FELL
23
OBIE SANNIRB SERET
★2★26719%-21HELD
3
DEVIN ROCHERB JUNO SNAPS
★3—5510%+30—
1
TARIQ SIMSRB SERET
★3★3487%-58HELD
5
ALEX JREIGERB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE27TAL41PERF42RET47ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 52 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
ISIAH PAIGEWR SERET
★2—8622%-31—
6
REYMELLO MURPHYWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★38219%+33EMERGED
13
KELBY WILLIAMSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★37716%+20EMERGED
9
JAILEN BUTLERTE SENO SNAPS
UNR★37580%-44EMERGED
7
JAVON HARVEYWR SERET
★2★37515%+14ROSE
14
AHMARIAN GRANGERWR JURET
★3★36611%-9HELD
4
DOMINIC DUTTONWR SERET
UNR—6510%-8—
1
JORDAN BLYWR JURET
★3★3566%-33HELD
3
ISAIAH SPENCERTE SERET
★2—3911%-17—
80
DJ CHANDLERTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—3710%——
4
MARQUEZ BELLWR SERET
★3★3291%-61HELD
8
MYLES ALSTONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
15
ISAIAH SMITHWR JURET
UNR—00%——
88
CURTIS NIXON IITE SORET
★3—00%——
0
TJ LOTTWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
11
MARSHAWN FERGUSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
89
ETHAN PRESUTTYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
87
TREY LANCASTERTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
19
JAYLEN PRETLOWWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
17
DEVIN QUEENWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL21TAL40PERF21RET96n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL29TAL43PERF29RET68n=9 · 7 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸LB55TAL54PERF56RET70n=7 · 11 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸DB45TAL49PERF46RET71n=10 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
QUAN DUNBARHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JORDAN HOLMESHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TJ LOTTHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
GIDEON BEDADAHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DEVIN ROCHEHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
COLTON JOSEPHHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
MARSHAWN FERGUSON JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MARIO THOMPSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
RYAN RAMEYHS RECRUITCB★2UNR
BROCK WALTERSHS RECRUITLSUNRUNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SAYYID STEVENSDUKELB★3★3
NATE WYATTTEMPLECB★3★3
JALEN SATCHELLTEMPLEDL★3★3
JAHLIL TAYLORNORTH CAROLINADL★3★3
ASHTON WHITNERGEORGIA SOUTHERNS★3★3
CHRIS CHERNAKGRAMBLINGOTUNR★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ROBERT KENNEDYNC STATEDBUNR★3
KHADERE KOUNTAUCLAOL★2★3
HAYDEN WOLFFWESTERN MICHIGANQB★3★3
BLAKE WATSONMEMPHISRB★2★2
CHAZZ WALLACECOLORADODL★3★3
DEEVE HARRISCOLORADODL★3★3
ALI JENNINGSVIRGINIA TECHWR★3★4
KEYSHAWN HUNTERDELAWAREDT★3★3
MARQEESE DIETZUALBANYWR★2UNR
PETER KIKWATAGEORGIA STATEWR★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES75%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS49%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#122NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8307COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
620 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST22% BACK22th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG22% BACK22th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR96%96th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST71%71th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE