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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SUN BELT|RICKY RAHNE|—RECORD10-3|CONF—
OLD DOMINION49 FPISBC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
12FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
58%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
65%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-20IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1020 BC / 17
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
9-3ACTUALvs9.3-2.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+13.4
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE59
PERFORMANCE59
TALENT45
CONTINUITY58
DEFENSE80
PERFORMANCE80
TALENT34
CONTINUITY65
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
37MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30AINDIANA#1L 14-2748100100-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HNORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL—W 54-6————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13AVIRGINIA TECH—W 45-26722323+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HLIBERTY—W 21-7392525+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HCOASTAL CAROLINA—W 47-7421111+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AMARSHALL—L 24-48363737+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AJAMES MADISON#19L 27-6388181-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HAPP STATE—W 24-21431919+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AUL MONROE—W 31-61044+60BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 13HTROY—W 33-0283636+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 45-10332424+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HGEORGIA STATE—W 27-104522+62BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 17ASOUTH FLORIDA—W 24-10567979-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB51TAL71PERF51RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
COLTON JOSEPHQB JURET
★3★38387%+30HELD
10
QUINN HENICLEQB SORET
★3—5413%-47—
4
RYAN HUFFQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
16
HOLDEN BROWNQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
15
GABE DOMBEKQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB63TAL59PERF63RET32ROTATIONn=4 · 4 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
DEVIN ROCHERB JURET
★3—7732%+24—
20
TREQUAN JONESRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★37630%+34EMERGED
18
KE'TRAVION HARGROVERB SEPORTAL · GRAMBLING
★4★46419%-40HELD
5
MAURKI JAMESRB SORET
UNR—6318%-25—
28
TROY MARQUEZRB SORET
UNR—60%——
39
JONATHAN NEWTONRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE45TAL69PERF57RET23ONE OWNERn=7 · 7 METRICS · 35 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
NA'EEM ABDUL-RAHIM GLADDINGWR JURET
UNR—9231%+28—
6
JA'CORY THOMASWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR★48626%+34EMERGED
2
TRE' BROWNWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR★48626%+35—
9
JAILEN BUTLERTE SERET
UNR★37659%-42EMERGED
19
DAWSON JOHNSONTE SOPORTAL · FLORIDA
★4★36538%-28FELL
11
TJ JOHNSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3—587%-40—
15
TJ LOTTWR SERET
★3★3525%—HELD
17
SIDNEY MBANASORWR SEPORTAL · TULANE
★3★3515%—HELD
17
DAMON DUKEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—201%——
5
TITUS MYERSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—181%——
14
ZAY PRINCEWR FRTRUE FR
★3—140%——
87
TREY LANCASTERTE SERET
UNR—121%——
88
KARL PETERSONTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—121%——
80
CHRIS WARRENTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
89
NATHAN HARTMANTE JURET
UNR—00%——
8
JOSH RODRIGUEZWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
81
LEROY LEWISWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
82
JAY GRANTWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
83
RYAN THOMASWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL62TAL26PERF62RET73n=5 · 3 METRICS · 13 OBS
▸DL64TAL30PERF64RET68n=11 · 7 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB77TAL41PERF77RET80n=8 · 11 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸DB57TAL33PERF57RET55n=11 · 8 METRICS · 57 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TAVARES MURRAYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
BRADEN ELLISHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JE'HAHJ SHERRILLHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JOSH RODRIGUEZHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
LEDARRION MENTERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JUSTIN KALITSNIKHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
RYAN HUFFHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
ZAY PRINCEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JACK SHEEHANHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HUNTER MALECKIHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KOLLIN COLLIERTCUSUNR★3
SIDNEY MBANASORTULANEWR★3★3
GRIFFIN DUGGANVIRGINIA TECHOT★3★3
RYAN JOYCEFORDHAMIOLUNR★3
NICKENDRE STIGERKANSAS STATESUNR★3
DAWSON JOHNSONFLORIDATE★4★3
BOTROS ALISANDROPURDUECBUNR★3
LOGAN COXKANSAS STATEIOLUNR★3
KE'TRAVION HARGROVEGRAMBLINGRB★4★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MICHAEL FLORESLOUISVILLEOLUNR★3
RASHEED REASONEAST CAROLINADBUNR★3
JAHRON MANNINGMISSISSIPPI STATESUNR★3
WILL JONES IINORTH TEXASS★3★3
DENZEL LOWRYLOUISVILLEDLUNR★3
JAYLON WHITE-MCCLAINCINCINNATIEDGE★3★3
PATRICK SMITH-YOUNGNORTH TEXASS★3★3
AMORIE MORRISONUABDE★3★3
KHIAN'DRE HARRISUALBANYDB★2★2
ASHTON WHITNERBALL STATES★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES60%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS95%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#102NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8354COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1232 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST65% BACK65th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG65% BACK65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR73%73th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST55%55th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE