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● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|MIKE BLOOMGREN|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
RICE83 FPIAAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
28FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
64%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#860 BC / 21
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+3.6
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE59
PERFORMANCE59
TALENT47
CONTINUITY64
DEFENSE46
PERFORMANCE46
TALENT43
CONTINUITY79
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
40MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2ATEXAS#3L 10-37969696-73BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HHOUSTON—W 43-41652929-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HTEXAS SOUTHERN—W 59-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 23ASOUTH FLORIDA—L 29-42533636-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HEAST CAROLINA—W 24-17451717+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HUCONN—L 31-38331010+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ATULSA—W 42-10401515+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HTULANE—L 28-30415656-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HSMU#22L 31-36768383-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AUTSA—L 14-34476464-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18ACHARLOTTE—W 28-74333+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 24-21492525-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26HTEXAS STATE—L 21-45324747-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB56TAL76PERF56RET30ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
JT DANIELSQB SEPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
★5★57864%-6HELD
12
AJ PADGETTQB JURET
★3—6629%-14—
10
CHASE JENKINSQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3355%—HELD
20
SHAWQI ITRAISHQB SERET
★3★3121%-44HELD
▾RB65TAL26PERF65RET97ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
44
DEAN CONNORSRB SERET
UNR★39756%+33EMERGED
21
JUMA OTOVIANORB SERET
★3—8128%-10—
5
ARI BROUSSARDRB SERET
UNR—496%-12—
10
QUINTON JACKSONRB SERET
★3—424%-43—
26
DAELEN ALEXANDERRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3353%+37HELD
44
GERON HARGONFB JURET
★3—00%——
26
CHRISTIAN FRANCISCORB JURET
UNR—00%——
4
COLIN GIFFENFB JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
35
MICHAEL AMICORB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE51TAL34PERF52RET81ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
LUKE MCCAFFREYWR JURET
★4★39935%+23FELL
88
BODEN GROENTE SERET
UNR★39351%-9EMERGED
80
RAWSON MACNEILLWR SORET
★3—8823%+24—
17
LANDON RANSOM-GOELZWR SONO SNAPS
★3★37817%+4HELD
87
JACK BRADLEYTE SERET
★3—7628%+52—
81
BRAYLEN WALKERWR SERET
★2★26812%+29HELD
7
ELIJAH MOJARROTE SENO SNAPS
★3—5913%-25—
2
KOBIE CAMPBELLWR SERET
★3—597%+8—
42
TREY PHILLIPPITE SORET
★3—518%+46—
1
JOVONI JOHNSON-MCCRAYWR SERET
UNR—463%——
8
MATT SYKESWR SEPORTAL · UCLA
★3★3362%-9HELD
49
MICAH BARNETTTE SERET
UNR—272%——
84
ETHAN POWELLTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—171%——
18
DRAYDEN DICKMANNWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★360%—HELD
85
JUSTIN WILLIAMS JR.WR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
82
MATT HALLTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
88
JAGGAR HEBEISENTE JURET
★3★300%—HELD
11
TYSON THOMPSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
86
JAMES FALKTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
22
RYAN GUILLOWR JURET
UNR—00%——
82
ALEX SCHERLETE SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
89
JAKE DRAGOOWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
19
ARDEN NAPIERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL37TAL48PERF37RET62n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL41TAL39PERF41RET65n=9 · 7 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸LB40TAL29PERF40RET76n=6 · 11 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸DB39TAL50PERF39RET83n=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ASHTON OJIAKUHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
TY MORRISHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JOSEPH MUTOMBOHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HUDSON PERRONIHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DRAYDEN DICKMANNHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
PEYTON FARMERHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CHASE JENKINSHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JAMARION CLARKHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
NATE BLEDSOEHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DAELEN ALEXANDERHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN5 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JT DANIELSWEST VIRGINIAQB★5★5
MATT SYKESUCLAWR★3★3
LAVEL DUMONTTOLEDOOT★3★3
BRANT BANKSNEBRASKAOT★3★3
COLEMAN COCOCOLGATESDEUNRUNR
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRADLEY ROZNERNC STATEWRUNRUNR
TJ MCMAHONMARSHALLQBUNR★2
SHEA BAKERELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
QUENT TITREELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
JOHN HUGHESELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
GEORGE NYAKWOLELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
ISAIAH ESDALEELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
TREY SCHUMANELIGIBILITY UPDE★2—
KENNETH ORJIELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
CAMERON MONTGOMERYELIGIBILITY UPRB★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES46%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS42%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#86NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8298COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
54 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST46% BACK46th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG46% BACK46th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR62%62th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR30%30th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST83%83th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE