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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
BIG TEN|GREG SCHIANO|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
RUTGERS101 FPIB1G · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
61FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
12%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#335 BC / 27
BC RATIO
10%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-11.8
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE18
PERFORMANCE18
TALENT56
CONTINUITY12
DEFENSE72
PERFORMANCE72
TALENT46
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
63MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3ABOSTON COLLEGE—W 22-21701313+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HWAGNER—W 66-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 17ATEMPLE—W 16-14452020+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HIOWA—L 10-27748080-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1AOHIO STATE#4L 10-49999898-71BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HNEBRASKA—L 13-14834646-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22HINDIANA—W 24-17743131-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29AMINNESOTA—L 0-31648888-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5HMICHIGAN#3L 17-52919999-72BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12AMICHIGAN STATE—L 21-27764949-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19HPENN STATE#7L 10-55909595-68BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26AMARYLAND—L 0-37737676-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB36TAL23PERF36RET100ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
GAVIN WIMSATTQB SERET
★4★36645%-56FELL
12
EVAN SIMONQB SERET
★3★36541%-20HELD
NOAH VEDRALQB SERET
UNR—4614%-5—
19
AUSTIN ALBERICCIQB SERET
UNR—00%——
17
GAVIN RUPPQB SONO SNAPS
UNR★200%—EMERGED
10
RAEDEN OLIVERQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB61TAL33PERF61RET66ONE OWNERn=2 · 5 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
KYLE MONANGAIRB SERET
★3—8260%-17—
27
SAMUEL BROWN VRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★36633%-26—
5
AARON YOUNGRB SERET
★3—304%-25—
33
PARKER DAYRB SERET
UNR—162%——
21
JORDAN KINSLERRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—91%——
30
JORDAN SMIKLERB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE50TAL52PERF49RET84ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
JOHNNY LANGANTE SERET
★3—9461%-2—
1
ARON CRUICKSHANKWR SERET
★3—8124%-6—
7
SHAMEEN JONESWR SERET
★3—7923%-22—
5
SEAN RYANWR SENO SNAPS
★3—7621%+28—
1
CHRIS LONGWR SERET
★3★37117%-27HELD
87
MATT ALAIMOTE SERET
★3★36723%-17HELD
89
VICTOR KONOPKATE SERET
★3—5111%——
12
JOSHUA YOUNGBLOODWR JURET
★3—505%-60—
14
ISAIAH WASHINGTONWR SERET
★3—454%-33—
6
CHRISTIAN DREMELWR SERET
UNR—443%——
88
MIKE HIGGINSTE SENO SNAPS
★3—415%——
0
MAX PATTERSONWR SERET
★3★3362%—HELD
85
TAJ HARRISWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3181%-29HELD
8
RASHAD ROCHELLEWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3130%—HELD
13
NASIR MONTGOMERYWR SERET
★3—00%——
12
KENNY FLETCHER JR.TE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
40
CONNOR HEBBELERTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
7
THOMAS AMANKWAAWR SENO SNAPS
★3★400%—ROSE
▸OL56TAL67PERF56RET0n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL47TAL48PERF47RET84n=8 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸LB51TAL46PERF51RET89n=5 · 10 METRICS · 28 OBS
▸DB59TAL44PERF59RET87n=9 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MOSES WALKERHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
JACOB ALLENHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
ANTHONY JOHNSONHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
SAM BROWNHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
AMARION BROWNHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
KENNY FLETCHER JR.HS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
FITZROY LEDGISTERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
THOMAS AMANKWAAHS RECRUITS★3UNR
KWABENA ASAMOAHHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DJ ALLENHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT23 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NAIJEE JONESKENT STATEDB★3UNR
CJ ONYECHICOLORADO STATEDL★3UNR
JAMREE KROMAHJAMES MADISONDL★3UNR
RAIQWON O'NEALUCLAOL★3UNR
ALIJAH CLARKSYRACUSEDB★4UNR
COLE SNYDERBUFFALOQB★3★3
BO MELTONELIGIBILITY UPWR★4—
BRANDON SANDERSELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
PATRICE RENEELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
RASHAWN BATTLEELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#33NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
5OF 27 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8691COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST71% BACK71th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG71% BACK71th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST87%87th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE