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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG TEN|GREG SCHIANO|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
RUTGERS54 FPIB1G · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
58FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
70%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
85%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-9IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#364 BC / 25
BC RATIO
9%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
7-5ACTUALvs7.1-4.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+4.1
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE59
PERFORMANCE59
TALENT62
CONTINUITY70
DEFENSE31
PERFORMANCE31
TALENT64
CONTINUITY85
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
59MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HHOWARD—W 44-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HAKRON—W 49-172688+61BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21AVIRGINIA TECH—W 26-23637878-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HWASHINGTON—W 21-18755757+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5ANEBRASKA—L 7-14846666+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HWISCONSIN—L 7-42815656+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HUCLA—L 32-35804444+25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AUSC—L 20-42908383-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HMINNESOTA—W 26-19688080-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AMARYLAND—W 31-17643636+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HILLINOIS#16L 31-38557777-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AMICHIGAN STATE—W 41-14713333+36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26AKANSAS STATE—L 41-44548787-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB41TAL45PERF41RET0ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
16
ATHAN KALIAKMANISQB SEPORTAL · MINNESOTA
★4★393100%-23FELL
13
AJANI SHEPPARDQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
10
AJ SURACEQB JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
19
COLIN O'SULLIVANQB SORET
UNR—00%——
17
ROCCO RAINONEQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB47TAL43PERF47RET75ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
KYLE MONANGAIRB SERET
★3—9762%-11—
3
ANTWAN RAYMONDRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—7724%-29—
27
SAMUEL BROWN VRB SERET
UNR★3589%-17—
20
JA'SHON BENJAMINRB SERET
★3—445%-40—
30
JORDAN SMIKLERB SERET
UNR—50%——
15
JORDAN KINSLERRB SERET
UNR—00%——
20
GABE WINOWICHRB FRTRUE FR
★3★400%—ROSE
25
DONOVAN DELANEY JR.RB SERET
UNR—00%——
23
EDD GUERRIERRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE47TAL73PERF46RET53ROTATIONn=9 · 7 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
DYMERE MILLERWR SEPORTAL · MONMOUTH
UNR★49829%+12EMERGED
9
IAN STRONGWR SERET
★3★49022%+27ROSE
8
KJ DUFFWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—8620%+21—
12
KENNY FLETCHER JR.TE SERET
★3—7735%+6—
1
CHRIS LONGWR SERET
★3★37112%-24HELD
6
CHRISTIAN DREMELWR SERET
UNR—689%-7—
88
MIKE HIGGINSTE SERET
★3—6724%-43—
11
LOGAN BLAKETE SERET
★3—6421%-47—
2
BEN BLACK IIIWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—637%-23—
89
VICTOR KONOPKATE SERET
★3—6118%——
11
DEONDRE JOHNSONWR JURET
★4★3331%—FELL
17
VILAY NAKKOUN JR.WR SORET
★3★3271%—HELD
86
LIAM KILCOMONSTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—262%——
18
MATT OGUNNIYITE JUNO SNAPS
★3★340%—HELD
1
FAMAH TOUREWR SERET
★3—00%——
7
THOMAS AMANKWAAWR SERET
★3★400%—ROSE
83
DINO KALIAKMANISWR SEPORTAL · MINNESOTA
★3★300%—HELD
7
DYLAN BRAITHWAITEWR SERET
★3—00%——
13
NASIR MONTGOMERYWR SERET
★3—00%——
18
NASEIM BRANTLEYWR SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
84
GUNNISON BLOODGOODWR SERET
UNR—00%——
87
MONTE KEENERTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
85
BEN ROSENBLATTWR JURET
UNR—00%——
82
JACKSON GISTERTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
25
TRENT OSBORNWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL51TAL58PERF51RET99n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL42TAL62PERF42RET74n=9 · 7 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB33TAL52PERF33RET100n=6 · 11 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸DB56TAL72PERF56RET86n=8 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS23 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KJ DUFFHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
ANTONIO WHITE JR.HS RECRUITS★4UNR
AJ SURACEHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
KAJ SANDERSHS RECRUITS★4UNR
GABE WINOWICHHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
KEVIN LEVYHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
SAM ROBINSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ANTWAN RAYMONDHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
AARIS BETHEAHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
DK GILLEYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN2 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DYMERE MILLERMONMOUTHWRUNR★4
MALCOLM RAYFLORIDA STATEDL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT23 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GAVIN WIMSATTKENTUCKYQB★4★3
KAMAR MISSOURIUTSAOLUNR★3
RENE KONGALOUISVILLEDL★3★3
AARON YOUNGOLD DOMINIONRB★3UNR
CARNELL DAVISDUQUESNEDB★3★3
MAX PATTERSONDELAWAREWR★3★3
EVAN SIMONTEMPLEQB★3★3
CAM'RON STEWARTTEMPLELB★3★3
MAX MELTONNFL DRAFT R2DB★3—
DEION JENNINGSELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES29%2 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS49%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#36NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
4OF 25 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8691COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
615 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST42% BACK42th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG42% BACK42th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST86%86th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE