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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
PAC-12|SEAN LEWIS|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
SAN DIEGO STATE67 FPIPAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
38FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
44%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
70%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#780 BC / 18
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs10.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+12.1
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 10.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE21
PERFORMANCE21
TALENT42
CONTINUITY44
DEFENSE76
PERFORMANCE76
TALENT55
CONTINUITY70
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
37MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28HSTONY BROOK—W 42-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6AWASHINGTON STATE—L 13-36315656+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HCALIFORNIA—W 34-0744141+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 6-3966+63BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 3HCOLORADO STATE—W 45-243499+60BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11ANEVADA—W 44-10141515+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AFRESNO STATE—W 23-0355151+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HWYOMING—W 24-7151919+50BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AHAWAI'I—L 6-38135050+19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HBOISE STATE—W 17-7425353+16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HSAN JOSÉ STATE—W 25-3211313+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28ANEW MEXICO—L 17-2354747+22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27HNORTH TEXAS#24L 47-49318484-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB29TAL19PERF29RET0ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
JAYDEN DENEGALQB SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN
★3★37890%+11HELD
12
KYLE CRUMQB JURET
★3★34710%-54HELD
14
JP MIALOVSKIQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
16
DRAIDEN TRUDEAUQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB61TAL68PERF61RET62ONE OWNERn=3 · 5 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
LUCKY SUTTONRB SERET
★3—9762%+25—
20
CHRISTIAN WASHINGTONRB SEPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
★3★37625%-7HELD
21
BYRON CARDWELL JR.RB SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★4★36012%+21FELL
3
CINCERE RHANEYRB SORET
★3★3161%—HELD
29
JORDIN THOMASRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE37TAL40PERF44RET13ROTATIONn=8 · 7 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
DONOVAN BROWNWR SENO SNAPS
★3—8733%+14—
15
JACKSON FORDTE JUPORTAL · TULSA
★3★38443%-35HELD
19
SETH ADAMSTE SEPORTAL · SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
UNR★38140%-40EMERGED
2
JORDAN NAPIERWR JURET
★3—7420%+34—
17
JACOB BOSTICKWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
★3★36714%+34HELD
13
NATHAN ACEVEDOWR SEPORTAL · FRESNO STATE
★3★36512%+4HELD
88
RYAN WOLFERTE SORET
★3—5914%——
14
MIKEY WELSHWR JURET
UNR—536%+32—
16
WILL CIANFRINIWR SORET
★3—536%-51—
12
JAYLON HAWKINSWR FRTRUE FR
★3—515%——
86
ARTHUR BANTE JURET
★3★3364%—HELD
10
PARKER THREATTWR SORET
★3—282%——
2
JERRY MCCLUREWR JURET
★4★3201%—FELL
20
MYLES KITT-DENTONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—140%——
5
BERT EMANUEL JR.WR SEPORTAL · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
★3★300%—HELD
27
BRIAN PIERCE JR.WR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
BEN SCOLARIWR FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
89
JACOB ALVAREZTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
36
KODI CORNELIUSTE FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
87
MARCUS MOZERWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
47
CONNOR IRONSTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
81
TIMOTHY NETANETE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
92
DE'YHARE OVERSTREET-GLOVERWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
95
JACK LUATE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL34TAL30PERF34RET52n=5 · 3 METRICS · 13 OBS
▸DL46TAL41PERF46RET55n=10 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸LB59TAL60PERF59RET77n=6 · 11 METRICS · 33 OBS
▸DB63TAL58PERF63RET74n=10 · 6 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JETT THOMASHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JORDIN THOMASHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
BRIAN TOWNSEND JR.HS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
KAIMANA TUFAGAHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
MARCUS MOZERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ASHDON WNETRZAKHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JP MIALOVSKIHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
ETENE PRITCHARDHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
SIDNEY DUPUYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JACOB ALVAREZHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHRISTIAN WASHINGTONCOASTAL CAROLINARB★3★3
JACKSON FORDTULSATE★3★3
KAINOA DAVISCHARLOTTEDL★3★3
BYRON CARDWELL JR.CALIFORNIARB★4★3
SETH ADAMSSOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANATEUNR★3
HUNTER HAINESWASHINGTON STATES★3★3
CAM MAYHOWARDOT★2★3
JAYDEN DENEGALMICHIGANQB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DANNY O'NEILWISCONSINQB★3★3
LOUIS BROWN IVBAYLORWR★3★3
DOMINIC OLIVERWESTERN KENTUCKYLB★3★3
DARRION DALTONWASHINGTON STATEDT★3★3
BENNETT WALKERNORTH DAKOTADBUNR★3
DEAN ABDULLAHSACRAMENTO STATEOLUNRUNR
JAVANCE TUPOU'ATA-JOHNSONNORTH DAKOTAQB★3★3
KEION MITCHELLHOWARDDLUNRUNR
BAYLIN BROOKSWESTERN MICHIGANWR★3★3
MALIK GUCAKEPRAIRIE VIEW A&MDLUNRUNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES98%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS80%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#78NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8486COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1925 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
18TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
1
3
6
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.8 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +7 W
IMPROVED10 OF 18
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST63% BACK63th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG63% BACK63th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR52%52th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST74%74th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE