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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|KEN NIUMATALOLO|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
SAN JOSÉ STATE89 FPIMWC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
16FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
34%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
76%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-13IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1040 BC / 17
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+1.1
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE32
PERFORMANCE32
TALENT51
CONTINUITY34
DEFENSE49
PERFORMANCE49
TALENT46
CONTINUITY76
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
34MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HSACRAMENTO STATE—W 42-244———NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7AAIR FORCE—W 17-711717+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HKENNESAW STATE—W 31-10522+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AWASHINGTON STATE—L 52-54464949-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HNEVADA—W 35-31231313+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12ACOLORADO STATE—L 24-31303030+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HWYOMING—W 24-14121414+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AFRESNO STATE—L 10-33363737-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9AOREGON STATE—W 24-13472828+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HBOISE STATE#8L 21-42457979-47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HUNLV#23L 16-27397474-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HSTANFORD—W 34-31702424+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 24HSOUTH FLORIDA—L 39-41504141-9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB53TAL52PERF53RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 7 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
WALKER EGETQB SERET
★3★38259%+6HELD
19
EMMETT BROWNQB JUPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
★3★37340%+3HELD
7
XAVIER WARDQB SEPORTAL · SAM HOUSTON
★3★371%—HELD
15
MACLOUD CROWTONQB JUPORTAL · UTAH
UNR—00%——
16
CJ LEEQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB43TAL72PERF43RET24ONE OWNERn=3 · 4 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
FLOYD CHALK IVRB SEPORTAL · GRAMBLING
★3★38063%-9HELD
6
JABARI BATESRB SERET
★3—6024%-45—
2
LAMAR RADCLIFFERB SONO SNAPS
★3—4913%+7—
21
KAYDEN COLLINSRB SORET
UNR—00%——
34
VILIAMI TEURB JURET
★3—00%——
22
PAOLO BURAKRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
24
ZACK HOMANRB FRTRUE FR
★2★200%—HELD
▾WR/TE39TAL52PERF43RET31ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 48 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
NICK NASHWR SERET
★2★410029%+24ROSE
11
JUSTIN LOCKHARTWR SERET
★2—10027%+22—
2
TREYSHUN HURRYWR SEPORTAL · WEBER STATE
UNR★39521%+35EMERGED
85
JACKSON CANAANTE SERET
★2—8753%-11—
86
JACOB STEWARTTE SENO SNAPS
UNR★38347%-10EMERGED
2
MATT COLEMANWR SERET
UNR★38214%+1EMERGED
24
SEBASTIAN MACALUSOWR SERET
★3—615%+25—
13
COOPER HOCHWR JURET
★3—584%-39—
87
GRANT NORBERGTE SEPORTAL · UCLA
UNR★370%—EMERGED
0
KYRI SHOELSWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
86
SKYLAR LOVING-BLACKTE SERET
★3★300%+18HELD
12
MALIKHI MILLERWR SERET
★3—00%0—
5
SAWYER DEERMANWR SOPORTAL · ALABAMA
★3★300%—HELD
83
KAMAEHU KOPA-KAAWALAUOLETE JURET
★3—00%——
23
ROY GARDNERWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
88
MILES HULLWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL54TAL45PERF54RET51n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL44TAL49PERF44RET58n=10 · 7 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB43TAL16PERF43RET94n=6 · 11 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸DB41TAL60PERF41RET66n=8 · 8 METRICS · 39 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LAMAR RADCLIFFEHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
MAKONI MANUKAINIUHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
GREGORY MCCLENDON IIIHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JOSEPH BEYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
MANUEL SERNAHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
ALONZO CONTRERASHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
MOHAMMAD OTHMANHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
NOA SIAOSIHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DAVID PEREZHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
TULI TAGOVAILOA-AMOSAHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
FLOYD CHALK IVGRAMBLINGRB★3★3
LARRY TURNER-GOODENTEXASS★4★3
WILL LEYSILLINOISIOLUNR★3
ROBERT RAHIMILIBERTYSUNR★3
TREYSHUN HURRYWEBER STATEWRUNR★3
EMMETT BROWNWASHINGTON STATEQB★3★3
GRANT NORBERGUCLATEUNR★3
NASERI DANIELSONBYULB★3★3
XAVIER WARDSAM HOUSTONQB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT39 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRYUN PARHAMWASHINGTONLB★3★3
FERNANDO CARMONAARKANSASOL★3★3
JAY'VION COLETEXASCB★2★3
TRE SMITHARIZONADL★3★3
DOMINICK MAZOTTIMASSACHUSETTSTE★3★3
QUALI CONLEYARIZONARB★2★3
SAM OLSONARIZONATE★2★3
CHARLES ROSSUSCWR★3★3
JAKE STEELEBOISE STATEOL★3★3
JAIRUS SATELEFRESNO STATEDL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES96%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS58%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#104NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8094COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1427 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST12% BACK12th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG12% BACK12th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR51%51th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST66%66th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE