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● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
ACC|RHETT LASHLEE|—RECORD11-3|CONF—
SMU#22 AP 20 FPIACC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
76FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
63%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
41%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#720 BC / 17
BC RATIO
20%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
11-2ACTUALvs11.5-1.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+23.2
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 11.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE73
PERFORMANCE73
TALENT74
CONTINUITY63
DEFENSE86
PERFORMANCE86
TALENT64
CONTINUITY41
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
34MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HLOUISIANA TECH—W 38-14241616+67BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9AOKLAHOMA#15L 11-28948888-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HPRAIRIE VIEW A&M—W 69-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 23ATCU—L 17-34877474+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HCHARLOTTE—W 34-164333+80BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AEAST CAROLINA—W 31-10451717+66BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20ATEMPLE—W 55-04255+78BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HTULSA—W 69-10401515+68BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4ARICE—W 36-31282323+60BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 10HNORTH TEXAS—W 45-21303636+47BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AMEMPHIS—W 38-34545959+24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HNAVY—W 59-1411515+68BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2ATULANE—W 26-14415656+27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28ABOSTON COLLEGE—L 14-23613838+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB59TAL58PERF59RET97ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
PRESTON STONEQB SERET
★4★38773%+35FELL
7
KEVIN JENNINGSQB SERET
★3—6324%+3—
16
ALEX PADILLAQB SEPORTAL · IOWA
★3★3171%-50HELD
6
KELDRIC LUSTERQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3141%—HELD
26
OWEN EASLEYQB SERET
UNR—00%——
14
CHARLIE FISERQB SERET
UNR—00%——
21
CLYDE PITTMANQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
25
WILLIAM FIERROQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB47TAL48PERF47RET38ROTATIONn=6 · 5 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
JAYLAN KNIGHTONRB SEPORTAL · MIAMI
★4★38835%-16FELL
11
LJ JOHNSON JR.RB SENO SNAPS
★4★37623%+16FELL
CAMAR WHEATONRB JURET
★4—6917%+1—
31
TYLER LAVINERB SERET
★2—6715%+30—
24
VELTON GARDNERRB SERET
★3—496%-25—
26
ZANE MINORSRB SERET
UNR—414%-34—
▾WR/TE62TAL76PERF61RET63ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
82
RJ MARYLANDTE SERET
★4—9170%+21—
12
JAKE BAILEYWR SERET
★3—8118%+22—
9
KEY'SHAWN SMITHWR SEPORTAL · MIAMI
★4★37916%+20FELL
5
MOOCHIE DIXONWR SERET
★4—7514%+27—
2
JORDAN HUDSONWR SEPORTAL · TCU
★4★47414%+13HELD
3
ROMELLO BRINSONWR SEPORTAL · MIAMI
★4★37113%+23FELL
13
RODERICK DANIELS JR.WR SERET
★3—6911%+11—
1
JORDAN KERLEYWR SERET
★3★36811%+25HELD
14
NOLAN MATTHEWS-HARRISTE JURET
★3★35212%—HELD
83
MICAH HILTSTE SEPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
★2★3469%0ROSE
5
ADAM MOORETE SONO SNAPS
★3★3458%—HELD
30
CARTER CAMPBELLWR SERET
UNR—291%——
10
JAMARION CARROLLWR FRTRUE FR
★3★3251%—HELD
32
JOEY BRUSZERWR SORET
UNR—241%——
15
JAXSON LAVENDERWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3170%—HELD
83
CASE HOLLERONWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—130%——
46
MARKUS SCHUMACHERTE SORET
UNR—81%——
44
STONE EBYTE SERET
★3—60%——
84
TRIPP RIORDANTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—50%——
86
DAVIS HAWKINSTE JURET
UNR—00%——
35
HENRY STICKLERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
39
KEATON CHEVESWR JURET
UNR—00%——
18
TEDDY KNOXWR SORET
★4★400%—HELD
42
WILL KUEHNEWR SERET
★3—00%——
89
KAM ALLENTE SORET
★3—00%——
47
NIC HECKWR SERET
UNR—00%——
81
LONNIE JOHNSONTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
33
MEYER PEREIRAWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
38
MADDOX FULLERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
45
NED RIGHELLISTE FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
36
COOPER REEDWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL64TAL78PERF64RET61n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL76TAL56PERF76RET53n=12 · 8 METRICS · 66 OBS
▸LB64TAL79PERF64RET9n=5 · 10 METRICS · 36 OBS
▸DB63TAL66PERF63RET42n=10 · 8 METRICS · 61 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS5 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ALEX KILGOREHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DAEMIAN WIMBERLYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JAXSON LAVENDERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ADAM MOOREHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JAMARION CARROLLHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN20 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN HUDSONTCUWR★4★4
LJ JOHNSONTEXAS A&MRBUNR★4
JAYLAN KNIGHTONMIAMIRB★4★3
CHARLES WOODSWEST VIRGINIACBUNR★3
HYRIN WHITEMISSOURIOT★3★3
PJ WILLIAMSTEXAS A&MOT★4★3
JAKAI CLARKMIAMIIOL★3★3
KEY'SHAWN SMITHMIAMIWR★4★3
AHMAD WALKERLIBERTYLB★3★3
JORDAN MILLERMIAMIDL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT34 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TANNER MORDECAIWISCONSINQB★4★4
SAM WESTFALLVIRGINIACB★2UNR
RODERICK ROBERSONLOUISIANA TECHDB★3UNR
DYLAN GOFFNEYCOLORADO STATEWR★3★3
TRE SIGGERSINCARNATE WORDRB★3★3
TJ MCDANIELNORTHERN ARIZONARB★3★3
DARREN BROWNINCARNATE WORDDT★3★3
BEAU CORRALESTEXAS STATEWR★3★3
DEUCE PALMERUSCLB★3★3
TREVION SNEEDNORTHWESTERN STATEDE★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES36%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS51%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#72NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8492COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2623 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST41% BACK41th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG41% BACK41th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR61%61th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST42%42th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE