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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SEC|SHANE BEAMER|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
SOUTH CAROLINA34 FPISEC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
88FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
62%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
69%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1812 BC / 25
BC RATIO
49%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+0.6
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE59
PERFORMANCE59
TALENT78
CONTINUITY62
DEFENSE92
PERFORMANCE92
TALENT77
CONTINUITY69
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
71MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HVIRGINIA TECH—W 24-11722323+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HSOUTH CAROLINA STATE—W 38-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13HVANDERBILT#15L 7-31619393-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AMISSOURI—L 20-29858585-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HKENTUCKY—W 35-13815151+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11ALSU—L 10-20967777-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HOKLAHOMA#13L 7-26919090-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HALABAMA#9L 22-29998686-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AOLE MISS#3L 14-30859696-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15ATEXAS A&M#8L 30-31959494-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HCOASTAL CAROLINA—W 51-7421111+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HCLEMSON—L 14-28967676-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB67TAL90PERF67RET96ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
16
LANORRIS SELLERSQB JURET
★4—8796%+30—
12
CUTTER WOODSQB FRTRUE FR
★3—293%——
3
AIR NOLANDQB SOPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
★4★3101%—FELL
25
JIMMY FRANCISQB SORET
UNR—00%——
34
BRANDON CUNNINGHAMQB FRTRUE FR
★4—00%——
▾RB63TAL89PERF63RET53ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
RAHSUL FAISONRB SEPORTAL · UTAH STATE
★2★48846%+14ROSE
27
OSCAR ADAWAY IIIRB SERET
★3★37224%+6HELD
28
MATT FULLERRB SORET
★4—7022%-54—
22
JAWARN HOWELLRB JURET
UNR★3476%+34EMERGED
4
ISAIAH AUGUSTAVERB JUPORTAL · COLORADO
★4★3181%+17FELL
32
BRADLEY DUNNRB SERET
UNR—131%+27—
26
NATHAN HARRIS-WAYNICKRB SERET
UNR—00%——
35
CHASE MCCRACKENRB JURET
UNR—00%——
31
NEIL SALVAGE IIIRB SORET
UNR—00%——
39
LARRY SCOTTRB SERET
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE65TAL87PERF67RET61ONE OWNERn=9 · 7 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
VANDREVIUS JACOBSWR JURET
★4★48724%+14HELD
8
NYCK HARBORWR SERET
★5—8623%+8—
87
BRADY HUNTTE SERET
★2★38345%-7ROSE
5
JORDAN DINGLETE SEPORTAL · KENTUCKY
★3★37633%+13HELD
2
BRIAN ROWE JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★4★37314%-48FELL
6
DONOVAN MURPHWR SONO SNAPS
★4—7214%+9—
17
JAYDEN SELLERSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—6912%+31—
3
MAZEO BENNETT JR.WR JURET
★4—628%-28—
44
MAURICE BROWN IITE SERET
UNR—5612%——
14
JARED BROWNWR SERET
★3★3545%+31HELD
82
MICHAEL SMITHTE SORET
★4★3497%-22—
13
MALIK CLARKWR FRTRUE FR
★4—342%——
5
MIKE TYLERTE SONO SNAPS
★3—312%——
81
RENO ROEHMTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—40%——
7
JORDON GIDRONWR FRTRUE FR
★4—00%——
9
LUKE DOTYWR SERET
★4—00%-49—
12
ERIQ RICEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
80
LUKAS VOZEHTE SORET
UNR—00%——
0
LEX CYRUSWR FRTRUE FR
★4—00%——
83
EMAZON LITTLEJOHNWR SORET
UNR—00%——
82
JACKSON REPPWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL46TAL69PERF46RET53n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL64TAL74PERF64RET67n=9 · 7 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸LB50TAL73PERF50RET53n=4 · 11 METRICS · 28 OBS
▸DB63TAL80PERF63RET79n=10 · 6 METRICS · 51 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MALIK CLARKHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
DONOVAN MURPHHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
JAQUAVIOUS DODDHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
DONOVAN DARDENHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
JORDON GIDRONHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
ADEDAMOLA AJIDAHUNHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
BRIAN ROWE JR.HS RECRUITWR★4UNR
KENDALL DANIELS JR.HS RECRUITS★4UNR
LEX CYRUSHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
SHEDRICK SARRATT JR.HS RECRUITOT★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAYLEN BROWNMISSOURIEDGE★4★4
RAHSUL FAISONUTAH STATERB★2★4
BRANDON CISSENC STATECB★3★4
RODNEY NEWSOM JR.WESTERN KENTUCKYIOL★2★4
GABRIEL BROWNLOW-DINDYTEXAS A&MDL★5★3
JUSTIN OKORONKWOALABAMALB★3★3
BOAZ STANLEYHUDSON VALLEYIOLUNR★3
MYLES NORWOODBALL STATECBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BANGALLY KAMARAKANSASLB★3★3
RONDO PORTERAPP STATEDLUNR★3
ROBBY ASHFORDWAKE FORESTQB★4★3
PAYTON MANGRUMEAST CAROLINAWR★2★3
CONNOR COXNORTH CAROLINATE★3★3
NICK ELKSNISUNLVTE★3★3
JAMAAL WHYCE JR.MARSHALLDL★3★3
WENDELL GREGORYOKLAHOMA STATEDE★4★4
RONNIE PORTERAPP STATELBUNR★3
ELIJAH DAVISTROYDE★3UNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES47%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS47%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#18NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
12OF 25 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8881COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1723 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST63% BACK63th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG63% BACK63th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR53%53th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR96%96th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST79%79th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE