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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
ACC|TROY TAYLOR|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
STANFORD105 FPIACC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
74FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
49%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
75%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-17IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#461 BC / 23
BC RATIO
20%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs2.3-9.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-17.1
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE39
PERFORMANCE39
TALENT67
CONTINUITY49
DEFENSE36
PERFORMANCE36
TALENT66
CONTINUITY75
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
70MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1AHAWAI'I—W 37-242088+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9AUSC—L 10-56957878-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HSACRAMENTO STATE—L 23-304———NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 23HARIZONA#11L 20-21708787-68BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HOREGON#6L 6-42939898-79BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 13ACOLORADO—W 46-43753939-20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HUCLA—L 7-42828080-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HWASHINGTON#2L 33-42829191-72BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AWASHINGTON STATE—W 10-7466363-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AOREGON STATE—L 17-62618686-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HCALIFORNIA—L 15-27685050-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HNOTRE DAME#14L 23-56939595-76BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB58TAL55PERF58RET76ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
ASHTON DANIELSQB SERET
★3★38975%-15HELD
8
JUSTIN LAMSONQB JUPORTAL · SYRACUSE
★3★36223%-47HELD
11
ARI PATUQB SERET
★3★3171%-37HELD
10
BEAU NELSONQB SERET
★3—141%——
9
MYLES JACKSONQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
17
CHARLIE MIRERQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB60TAL70PERF60RET76ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
EJ SMITHRB SERET
★4★38452%+5FELL
2
CASEY FILKINSRB SERET
★3—6624%+12—
26
SEDRICK IRVINRB SENO SNAPS
★3—5212%-31—
9
RYAN BUTLERRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—5011%-56—
34
CHAMP HAMPTONRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—141%——
17
BRENDON BARROWRB SERET
★3★300%-33HELD
23
JACOB LOWERB SORET
UNR—00%——
36
KENAJ WASHINGTONRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE55TAL64PERF52RET45ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
ELIC AYOMANORWR SORET
★3—9832%+29—
19
TIGER BACHMEIERWR SENO SNAPS
★3★39527%-30HELD
86
SAM ROUSHTE SERET
★4—9355%+33—
84
BEN YUROSEKTE SERET
★3—8136%+11—
11
BRYCE FARRELLWR SERET
★3—7917%-45—
6
MUDIA REUBENWR SERET
★3★36912%+18HELD
8
JAYSON RAINESWR SERET
★3★3535%-62HELD
5
JOHN HUMPHREYSWR SERET
★4—483%-9—
86
LUKAS UNGARTE SERET
★4★3425%—FELL
85
SHIELD TAYLORTE SERET
★3—404%——
4
JACKSON HARRISWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★3372%—FELL
4
ISMAEL CISSEWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3221%—HELD
40
JASON THOMPSONWR JURET
★3★3170%—HELD
19
SILAS STARRWR SERET
★3—60%-63—
80
DAVID KASEMERVISZWR SERET
UNR—00%——
49
EVAN JACKSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
88
C.J. HAWKINSTE SORET
★3—00%——
43
AHMARI BORDENWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
84
CHICO HOLTTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
82
TYLER KUOWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
39
BRAYDEN HAGLEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
18
MYLES LIBMANWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▸OL36TAL74PERF36RET64n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL54TAL64PERF55RET86n=7 · 7 METRICS · 28 OBS
▸LB44TAL71PERF44RET64n=8 · 11 METRICS · 66 OBS
▸DB54TAL63PERF54RET69n=9 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JSHAWN FRAUSTO-RAMOSHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
AHMARI BORDENHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MYLES JACKSONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
TIGER BACHMEIERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
SEDRICK IRVIN JR.HS RECRUITRB★3UNR
SIMIONE PALEHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ZAK YAMAUCHIHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
LUKE BAKLENKOHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JACKSON HARRISHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
GAVIN GEWENIGERHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN3 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TREVOR MAYBERRYPENNSYLVANIAOTUNR★3
GAETHAN BERNADELFLORIDA INTERNATIONALLB★3★3
ALEC BANKHARVARDOT★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT30 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DRAKE NUGENTMICHIGANOL★3★4
JAKE HORNIBROOKDUKEOL★3★3
WALTER ROUSEOKLAHOMAOL★3★4
JONATHAN MCGILLSMUS★3★3
STEPHEN HERRONLOUISVILLEDL★4UNR
LEVANI DAMUNIUTAHLB★3★4
MYLES HINTONMICHIGANOL★4★4
AENEAS DICOSMOVANDERBILTDL★3★3
JACOB MANGUM-FARRARINDIANADL★3★3
BARRETT MILLERCALIFORNIAOL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES38%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS52%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#46NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 23 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8619COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
421 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST38% BACK38th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG38% BACK38th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR64%64th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR76%76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST69%69th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE