SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›TCU›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG 12|SONNY DYKES|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
TCU28 FPIB12 · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
87FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
58%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
84%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#217 BC / 21
BC RATIO
35%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+3.5
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE80
PERFORMANCE80
TALENT70
CONTINUITY58
DEFENSE49
PERFORMANCE49
TALENT74
CONTINUITY84
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
64MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HCOLORADO—L 42-45753939+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HNICHOLLS—W 41-6————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16AHOUSTON—W 36-13652929+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HSMU#22W 34-17768383-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HWEST VIRGINIA—L 21-24647272+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7AIOWA STATE—L 14-27577272+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HBYU—W 44-11474343+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AKANSAS STATE#18L 3-41519090-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2ATEXAS TECH—L 28-35726868+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HTEXAS#3L 26-29969696-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HBAYLOR—W 42-17672727+47BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24AOKLAHOMA#15L 45-69948888-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB75TAL89PERF75RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
JOSH HOOVERQB SERET
★3★47957%+9ROSE
4
CHANDLER MORRISQB SERET
★4★37342%+27FELL
5
GRANT TISDALEQB SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
19
JACOB PORTERQB JURET
★2—00%——
24
JIMMY WEIRICKQB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
13
LUKE PARDEEQB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾RB42TAL59PERF42RET78ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
EMANI BAILEYRB JURET
★3—9866%+24—
2
TREY SANDERSRB SEPORTAL · ALABAMA
★5★36716%-9FELL
6
TRENT BATTLERB SERET
★3—569%+20—
4
CAM COOKRB SENO SNAPS
★4★3445%-56FELL
40
FRANKLIN ESTRADA IIRB SERET
UNR—00%——
32
BRANT AHLFINGERRB SORET
UNR—00%——
23
DERRICK CARROLLRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE69TAL75PERF63RET49ONE OWNERn=11 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
19
JARED WILEYTE SERET
★3—9769%+27—
3
SAVION WILLIAMSWR SERET
★3—8820%+6—
13
JAYLON ROBINSONWR SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★4★38618%+8FELL
7
JP RICHARDSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3—8217%+4—
84
WARREN THOMPSONWR SENO SNAPS
★4★4669%+10HELD
81
CHASE CURTISTE SERET
UNR—6420%+35—
11
JOJO EARLEWR SEPORTAL · ALABAMA
★4★3648%+3FELL
6
DYLAN WRIGHTWR SEPORTAL · MINNESOTA
★4★3638%+31FELL
3
MAJOR EVERHARTWR SERET
★3—596%+21—
18
JACK BECHWR SEPORTAL · LSU
★4★3576%-10FELL
87
BLAKE NOWELLWR SERET
★3—576%-12—
0
DJ ROGERSTE SERET
★4—5310%——
17
JORDYN BAILEYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3372%—HELD
15
DJ ALLEN JR.WR SERET
★4—281%——
5
CORDALE RUSSELLWR SONO SNAPS
★4★4221%—HELD
6
CHASE JACKSONWR SORET
★3—130%——
88
CURTIS RAYMOND IIITE SERET
UNR—50%——
12
LAFAYETTE KAIUWAYTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
44
BEN REPPENHAGENTE SORET
UNR—00%——
86
DREW SCOTTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
35
COLTON DOBSONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
43
JOE LATERZAWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
STAYTON ANKROMWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
17
ROHAN FLUELLENWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
83
KEAGAN CUNNINGHAMWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
PARKER CLARKWR JURET
UNR—00%——
43
JOE STAUBACHWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
41
HUNTER KREPPWR SORET
UNR—00%——
89
AUSTIN SCHEETSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
▸OL77TAL66PERF77RET52n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL43TAL82PERF43RET85n=8 · 7 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸LB61TAL52PERF61RET99n=5 · 11 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸DB52TAL75PERF52RET74n=11 · 6 METRICS · 55 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CORDALE RUSSELLHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
MARKIS DEALHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
RANDON FONTENETTEHS RECRUITS★4UNR
AVION CARTERHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
CAM COOKHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
ZACH CHAPMANHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
JAVEON WILCOXHS RECRUITS★4UNR
JAMEL JOHNSONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JONATHAN BAXHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
MAX CARROLLHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TOMMY BROCKERMEYERALABAMAOT★5★4
JOJO EARLEALABAMAWR★4★4
AVERY HELMFLORIDACB★4★4
JOHN PAUL RICHARDSONOKLAHOMA STATEWRUNR★3
WILLIS PATRICKJACKSON STATEIOLUNR★3
TREY SANDERSALABAMARB★5★3
JAYLON ROBINSONOLE MISSWR★4★3
JACK BECHLSUTE★4★3
TICO BROWNMISSOURI STATEDL★2★3
DYLAN WRIGHTMINNESOTAWR★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT33 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KEE'YON STEWARTARKANSASDB★3UNR
JORDAN HUDSONSMUWR★4★4
BLAIR CONWRIGHTNORTH TEXASWR★3★3
DESHAWN MCCUINSAN DIEGO STATES★3★3
DOUG BLUE-ELISOUTH FLORIDADLUNR★3
QUINCY BROWNNICHOLLSWR★4★3
ALEX HONIGUCONNTE★3★3
SAM JACKSON VCALIFORNIAWR★4★3
TRE'VIUS HODGES-TOMLINSONELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
STEVE AVILAELIGIBILITY UPC★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES91%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS73%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#21NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
7OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8867COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1317 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST12% BACK12th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG12% BACK12th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR52%52th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST74%74th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE