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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG 12|SONNY DYKES|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
TCU#25 AP 32 FPIB12 · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
77FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
75%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
74%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#246 BC / 27
BC RATIO
26%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.6
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE78
PERFORMANCE78
TALENT77
CONTINUITY75
DEFENSE70
PERFORMANCE70
TALENT77
CONTINUITY74
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
61MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1ANORTH CAROLINA—W 48-14783333+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HABILENE CHRISTIAN—W 42-21————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20HSMU—W 35-24828484-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 26AARIZONA STATE—L 24-27775656+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HCOLORADO—W 35-21793030+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AKANSAS STATE—L 28-41667070+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HBAYLOR—W 42-36754848+25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AWEST VIRGINIA—W 23-17553232+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HIOWA STATE—L 17-20497676-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15ABYU#11L 13-44508787-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AHOUSTON#22W 17-14537171+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HCINCINNATI—W 45-23475959+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 30HUSC#20W 30-27888989-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB59TAL96PERF59RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
JOSH HOOVERQB SERET
★3★49590%+26ROSE
9
KEN SEALSQB SERET
★3★35510%+1HELD
19
JACOB PORTERQB JURET
★2—00%——
11
ADAM SCHOBELQB SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
12
DAVID POTTERQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB66TAL67PERF66RET65ROTATIONn=5 · 9 METRICS · 26 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
26
JEREMY PAYNERB JURET
★4—8937%+6—
2
KEVORIAN BARNESRB SEPORTAL · UTSA
★3★37925%-14HELD
6
TRENT BATTLERB SERET
★3—7722%-16—
2
JON DENMANRB SONO SNAPS
★3—6010%-49—
15
NATE PALMERRB SORET
★3★3536%-8HELD
40
FRANKLIN ESTRADA IIRB SERET
UNR—00%——
24
JOE PITCHFORDRB JURET
UNR—00%——
23
DERRICK CARROLLRB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE66TAL85PERF71RET62ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 42 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
ERIC MCALISTERWR SERET
★3★39831%+35HELD
7
JORDAN DWYERWR SEPORTAL · IDAHO
★3★49729%+16ROSE
0
DJ ROGERSTE SERET
★4—9148%+8—
81
CHASE CURTISTE SERET
UNR—8236%+37—
14
JOSEPH MANJACK IVWR SEPORTAL · HOUSTON
★3★38218%+17HELD
3
MAJOR EVERHARTWR SERET
★3—637%+13—
12
LAFAYETTE KAIUWAYTE SERET
★3—6113%——
18
ED SMALLWR SONO SNAPS
★4—606%+26—
0
DOZIE EZUKANMAWR JURET
★3—493%——
17
JORDYN BAILEYWR JURET
★3★3463%-6HELD
15
TERRY SHELTONWR SONO SNAPS
★4—402%——
88
KA'MORREUN PIMPTONTE SEPORTAL · LSU
★4★4373%+4HELD
85
PARKER CLARKWR JURET
UNR—140%——
80
JACOBE HAYESWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
10
MASON PETERSONTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
16
BRAYLON JAMESWR JURET
★4★400%—HELD
83
KEAGAN CUNNINGHAMWR SERET
UNR—00%——
84
GEKYLE BAKERWR FRRET
★4★300%—FELL
17
DANE JONESWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
22
FLETCHER FIERROWR JURET
UNR—00%——
86
SUTTON LEEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
▸OL55TAL71PERF55RET86n=8 · 3 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DL39TAL77PERF39RET61n=8 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸LB50TAL90PERF50RET98n=4 · 11 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸DB53TAL74PERF53RET74n=10 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS21 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHAD WOODFORKHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
ADAM SCHOBELHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
TERRY SHELTONHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
MICAH STRICKLANDHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
KILIAN REGISTEHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
ED SMALLHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
LOGAN SCHRAMHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JARED MARTINHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DANE JONESHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DEON MAYSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN4 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN DWYERIDAHOWR★3★4
ELIJAH JACKSONWASHINGTONCB★3★3
KA'MORREUN PIMPTONLSUTE★4★3
MICHAEL TEASONMISSOURI STATELBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT36 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAMES BROCKERMEYERMIAMIOL★4★3
CAM COOKJACKSONVILLE STATERB★4★3
RICHARD TONEY JR.PURDUEDB★3★2
JOJO EARLEUNLVWR★4★3
TERRENCE COOKS IITEXAS STATELB★4UNR
AVION CARTERNORTH TEXASDL★4★3
HAUSS HEJNYOKLAHOMA STATEQB★4★3
SHAD BANKS JR.UTSALB★4★3
KYLAN SALTERCOLORADODE★3★3
KEVIYAN HUDDLESTONNORTH TEXASDE★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES57%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS72%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#24NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
6OF 27 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8774COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1119 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST76% BACK76th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG76% BACK76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR86%86th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST74%74th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE