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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|K.C. KEELER|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
TEMPLE97 FPIAAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
18FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
63%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
58%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1230 BC / 16
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-1.8
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE52
PERFORMANCE52
TALENT39
CONTINUITY63
DEFENSE10
PERFORMANCE10
TALENT40
CONTINUITY58
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
53MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30AMASSACHUSETTS—W 42-101500+36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HHOWARD—W 55-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13HOKLAHOMA#13L 3-42919090-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AGEORGIA TECH—L 24-45727575-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HUTSA—W 27-21535555-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HNAVY#23L 31-3216666-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ACHARLOTTE—W 49-142211+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25ATULSA—W 38-37392424+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HEAST CAROLINA—L 14-45447373-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AARMY—L 13-1414646-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HTULANE#18L 13-37516767-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28ANORTH TEXAS#24L 25-52318484-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB42TAL22PERF42RET90ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
EVAN SIMONQB SERET
★3★38490%-18HELD
13
GEVANI MCCOYQB SEPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
★3★35010%+6HELD
14
TYLER DOUGLASQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
16
ANTHONY CHICCITTQB SEPORTAL · ROBERT MORRIS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
18
PATRICK KELLERQB SERET
UNR—00%——
15
CAMREN BOYKINQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB38TAL40PERF38RET14ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
20
JAY DUCKERRB SEPORTAL · SAM HOUSTON
★3★39256%+6HELD
29
HUNTER SMITHRB SEPORTAL · UL MONROE
★3★36820%+21HELD
26
TERREZ WORTHYRB SERET
UNR★35812%-4EMERGED
26
KEVEUN MASONRB SONO SNAPS
★3—5610%+24—
24
JOQUEZ SMITHRB JURET
★3★3313%-38—
23
JORDAN MILLERRB JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
22
JOHNNY MARTINRB SEPORTAL · STONY BROOK
★3★300%+10HELD
28
DARIUS MORANTRB SORET
UNR—00%——
21
DE'CARLOS YOUNGRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE39TAL41PERF38RET46ONE OWNERn=5 · 8 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
COLIN CHASEWR SEPORTAL · ST. THOMAS
★2★39534%-18ROSE
88
PETER CLARKETE SERET
★3—9456%+46—
11
KAJIYA HOLLAWAYNEWR SERET
★3—9231%-12—
17
JOJO BERMUDEZWR SEPORTAL · DELAWARE
★3★38827%+13HELD
33
RYDER KUSCHTE SONO SNAPS
★3—8439%-43—
10
IAN STEWARTWR SERET
★3★3453%-14HELD
84
DANIEL EVERTTE JURET
★3—404%+30—
86
XAVIER IRVINWR JURET
★3★3362%+21HELD
89
TYLER STEWARTWR SORET
★3★3322%—HELD
19
ANTONIO JONESWR SERET
UNR★3251%-44EMERGED
82
JAKE WOODSTE SEPORTAL · CAL POLY
★2★3171%—ROSE
85
RAMEIR HARDYWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
44
THOMAS NANCETE SEPORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN
★3★300%—HELD
80
PRESTON EVERHARTWR SORET
★3—00%——
87
KAEGAN CHAMBERSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
38
JOJO HUNTLEYWR SORET
UNR—00%——
43
COLE SPRAGUEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
27
KIAN JOHNSONWR SORET
UNR—00%——
40
DAVID WISETE JURET
UNR—00%——
▸OL48TAL44PERF48RET79n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL30TAL54PERF30RET89n=11 · 7 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB43TAL27PERF43RET54n=8 · 11 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸DB42TAL35PERF42RET35n=10 · 6 METRICS · 51 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS9 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JETT WHITEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TYLIK MITCHELLHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
KEVEUN MASONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
KAEGAN CHAMBERSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
DE'CARLOS YOUNGHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DEVONTAE WARD-GRANTHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JAMARCUS PIERREHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
CAMREN BOYKINHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
RAMEIR HARDYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN16 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DONTAE POLLARDSAMFORDCBUNR★3
GEVANI MCCOYTEXAS STATEQB★3★3
DEMERICK MORRISOKLAHOMA STATEDL★3★3
EARL KULPPURDUECB★3★3
JAY DUCKERSAM HOUSTONRB★3★3
JALEN STEWARTMASSACHUSETTSLBUNR★3
POOH LAWTONSLIPPERY ROCKSUNR★3
COLIN CHASEST. THOMASWR★2★3
JAYLEN CASTLEBERRYYOUNGSTOWN STATECBUNR★3
WILLY LOVEMONMOUTHLB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT31 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAMEL JOHNSONNC STATECB★3★3
TYQUAN KINGUCONNLB★3★3
TRA THOMASNC STATELBUNR★3
MELVIN SIANIWAKE FORESTOLUNR★4
JAYLEN LEWISWESTERN KENTUCKYDB★3★3
JAMES FAMINUUNLVOL★2★3
ANTWAIN LITTLETON JR.RHODE ISLANDRBUNRUNR
LANDON MORRISCALIFORNIATE★3★3
ANTWONE SANTIAGOVIRGINIA TECHLBUNR★3
JAMAR TAYLOR JR.FLORIDA A&MWR★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES41%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS68%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#123NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8407COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2423 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST100% BACK100th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG100% BACK100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR79%79th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR90%90th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST35%35th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE