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HOME›TEAMS›TENNESSEE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SEC|JOSH HEUPEL|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
TENNESSEE#17 AP 17 FPISEC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
89FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
83%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-14IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1014 BC / 26
BC RATIO
39%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+9.5
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE88
PERFORMANCE88
TALENT76
CONTINUITY78
DEFENSE90
PERFORMANCE90
TALENT82
CONTINUITY83
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
64MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HVIRGINIA—W 49-13532121+69BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HAUSTIN PEAY—W 30-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16AFLORIDA—L 16-29907070+20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HUTSA—W 45-14476464+26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HSOUTH CAROLINA—W 41-20856262+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HTEXAS A&M—W 20-13988989+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AALABAMA#5L 20-341009595-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AKENTUCKY—W 33-27788484+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HUCONN—W 59-3331010+80BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AMISSOURI#8L 7-36839393-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HGEORGIA#4L 10-38999999-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HVANDERBILT—W 48-24581717+73BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 1HIOWA#24W 35-0716666+24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB58TAL38PERF59RET87ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
JOE MILTON IIIQB SERET
★4★38984%+26FELL
9
NICO IAMALEAVAQB JUNO SNAPS
★5★55013%-10HELD
3
GASTON MOOREQB SERET
UNR—233%——
21
NAVY SHULERQB SERET
★3—00%——
15
RYAN DAMRONQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB78TAL76PERF78RET98ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
JAYLEN WRIGHTRB JURET
★3—8437%+31—
6
DYLAN SAMPSONRB JURET
★3—8032%+31—
2
JABARI SMALLRB SERET
★3—7223%+4—
20
KHALIFA KEITHRB SENO SNAPS
★3★3252%-58HELD
24
HUNTER BARNESRB SERET
UNR—141%——
28
PATRICK WILKRB JURET
UNR—60%+38—
18
DESEAN BISHOPRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE71TAL83PERF68RET60ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
RAMEL KEYTONWR SERET
★4—9530%+15—
4
SQUIRREL WHITEWR SERET
★3★49227%+34ROSE
34
MCCALLAN CASTLESTE SEPORTAL · UC DAVIS
★3★47648%+31ROSE
87
JACOB WARRENTE SERET
★3—7546%+2—
5
CHAS NIMRODWR SERET
★3★36913%-25HELD
2
KALEB WEBBWR SERET
★4★36712%-32FELL
5
BRU MCCOYWR SERET
★4—618%+8—
1
DONT'E THORNTON JR.WR SEPORTAL · OREGON
UNR★4566%+33EMERGED
0
CAMERON SELDONWR SENO SNAPS
★4★3445%—FELL
89
HUNTER SALMONTE SERET
UNR—273%——
0
ETHAN DAVISTE JUNO SNAPS
★4—242%——
17
MICHAEL BITTNERWR SERET
UNR—211%——
6
DAYTON SNEEDWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR★3191%—EMERGED
88
CHARLIE BROWDERTE JURET
★3—141%——
22
JACK JANCEKWR JURET
★2—130%——
83
TREY WEARYWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—130%——
11
NATHAN LEACOCKWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★3100%—FELL
35
GARRETT YOUNGWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
36
NATHAN ROBERTSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
44
TITUS ROHRERTE JURET
UNR—00%——
44
LUKE SHOUSETE SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
46
CODY DUNCANTE JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
82
NATE SPILLMANWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
34
EMMANUEL OKOYETE SONO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
29
JACKSON LOCKEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
29
JACK-HENRY JAKOBIKWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL65TAL78PERF65RET82n=9 · 3 METRICS · 24 OBS
▸DL77TAL86PERF77RET86n=14 · 8 METRICS · 77 OBS
▸LB65TAL77PERF65RET81n=5 · 10 METRICS · 28 OBS
▸DB65TAL81PERF65RET81n=12 · 8 METRICS · 60 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NICO IAMALEAVAHS RECRUITQB★5UNR
DAEVIN HOBBSHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
NATHAN LEACOCKHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
CALEB HERRINGHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
ARION CARTERHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
CAMERON SELDONHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
CHANDAVIAN BRADLEYHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
ETHAN DAVISHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
JORDAN MATTHEWSHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
RICKEY GIBSON IIIHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DONT'E THORNTON JR.OREGONWRUNR★4
GABE JEUDY-LALLYBYUCB★3★4
MCCALLAN CASTLESUC DAVISTE★3★4
KEENAN PILIBYULB★3★4
JOHN CAMPBELL JR.MIAMIOT★3★3
ANDREJ KARICTEXASOT★4★3
OMARR NORMAN-LOTTARIZONA STATEDL★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT33 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JUWAN MITCHELLCOLORADOLBUNR★3
DA'JON TERRYOKLAHOMADL★3★3
AMARI MCNEILLCOLORADODT★3★3
RJ PERRYSOUTH FLORIDAOL★3★3
JORDAN PHILLIPSMARYLANDDL★3★3
WALKER MERRILLWAKE FORESTWR★4★3
JIMMY HOLIDAYWESTERN KENTUCKYWR★3★3
JUSTIN WILLIAMS-THOMASCALIFORNIARB★4★3
JIMMY CALLOWAYLOUISVILLEWR★4★3
MILES CAMPBELLNORTH CAROLINA CENTRALTE★3★4
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES24%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS49%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#10NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
14OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9045COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
822 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST51% BACK51th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG51% BACK51th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR82%82th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR87%87th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST81%81th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE