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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SEC|MIKE ELKO|—RECORD11-2|CONF—
TEXAS A&M#8 AP 12 FPISEC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
95FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-17IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#921 BC / 25
BC RATIO
73%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
11-1ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+14.4
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE91
PERFORMANCE91
TALENT89
CONTINUITY79
DEFENSE79
PERFORMANCE79
TALENT88
CONTINUITY78
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
71MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HUTSA—W 42-24535555+39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HUTAH STATE—W 44-22184242+52BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13ANOTRE DAME#10W 41-40949797-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HAUBURN—W 16-10917979+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HMISSISSIPPI STATE—W 31-9835757+37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HFLORIDA—W 34-17925454+40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AARKANSAS—W 45-42846161+33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25ALSU—W 49-25967777+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AMISSOURI—W 38-17858585+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HSOUTH CAROLINA—W 31-30886464+30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HSAMFORD—W 48-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
14NOV 28ATEXAS#12L 17-27988888+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 20HMIAMI#2L 3-109094940BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB66TAL88PERF66RET97ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
MARCEL REEDQB SERET
★4—9392%+29—
8
MILES O'NEILLQB SORET
★4★3364%—FELL
13
BRADY HARTQB SONO SNAPS
★4—262%——
9
JACOB ZENOQB SEPORTAL · UAB
★4★3151%+35FELL
19
PAXTON LANDQB JURET
UNR—00%——
14
ELI MORCOSQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB59TAL91PERF59RET83ROTATIONn=5 · 9 METRICS · 28 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
RUEBEN OWENS IIRB SERET
★5—8938%-49—
8
LE'VEON MOSSRB SERET
★4—7420%+24—
2
JAMARION MORROWRB SONO SNAPS
★4—6614%-37—
22
EJ SMITHRB SERET
★4★36514%-8FELL
5
AMARI DANIELSRB SERET
★4—6111%+8—
5
TIGER RIDEN JR.RB SONO SNAPS
★4—292%+8—
34
PRESTON LANDISRB SERET
UNR★2131%+35EMERGED
41
AJ DINOTARB SERET
UNR—90%-36—
27
RONNIE CROSBY IIIRB JURET
UNR—00%——
24
RAMARIAN TILLMANRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE63TAL89PERF63RET41ROTATIONn=8 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
KC CONCEPCIONWR JUPORTAL · NC STATE
★3★49429%+24ROSE
8
ASHTON BETHEL-ROMANWR JURET
★4—9025%+32—
18
THEO MELIN OHRSTROMTE SERET
★4★48937%+38HELD
87
NATE BOERKIRCHERTE SEPORTAL · NEBRASKA
UNR★38836%+4EMERGED
1
MARIO CRAVERWR JUPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★4★48723%+29HELD
6
TERRY BUSSEYWR JURET
★5—7616%-28—
88
MICAH RILEYTE SEPORTAL · AUBURN
★4★36414%-44FELL
84
AMARI NIBLACKTE SEPORTAL · TEXAS
★4★46010%+32HELD
1
IZAIAH WILLIAMSWR JURET
★4★3473%-2FELL
18
TK NORMANWR SONO SNAPS
★3—372%——
9
KIOTTI ARMSTRONGTE SONO SNAPS
★4—363%——
11
KELSHAUN JOHNSONWR SONO SNAPS
★4—342%——
20
JOHNNY RYDERWR JURET
UNR—191%——
84
BLAKE BUNTYNWR FRRET
UNR—60%——
81
LUKE BRADENTE JURET
UNR—40%——
43
ZACHARY CLAYTE SERET
UNR—00%——
15
WESLEY WATSONWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
43
CARTER BRAUGHTE JURET
UNR—00%——
38
LUKE MILLERWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
JONAH WILSONWR JUPORTAL · HOUSTON
★4★300%-35FELL
80
JEROME MYLESWR FRTRUE FR
★5—00%——
85
CHASE BURTONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
WILL HARGETTWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
KADE STEWARTWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
39
WHITAKER WILLIAMSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL79TAL87PERF79RET96n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL79TAL89PERF79RET54n=8 · 7 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸LB86TAL79PERF86RET93n=7 · 11 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸DB60TAL92PERF60RET93n=6 · 8 METRICS · 39 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JEROME MYLESHS RECRUITWR★5UNR
LAMONT ROGERSHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
ADONYSS CURRIEHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
DJ SANDERSHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
JAMAR BEAL-GOINESHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
NOAH MIKHAILHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
KIOTTI ARMSTRONGHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
MARCO JONESHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
KELSHAUN JOHNSONHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
BRADY HARTHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN5 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KC CONCEPCIONNC STATEWR★3★4
MARIO CRAVERMISSISSIPPI STATEWR★4★4
T.J. SEARCYFLORIDAEDGE★4★4
JULIAN HUMPHREYGEORGIACBUNR★4
TYLER ONYEDIMIOWA STATEDL★3★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT35 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NOAH THOMASGEORGIAWR★4★4
TJ SHANAHAN JR.PENN STATEOL★4★3
KAM DEWBERRYALABAMAOL★4★3
CYRUS ALLENCINCINNATIWR★3★3
CONNER WEIGMANHOUSTONQB★5★4
MALICK SYLLAMISSISSIPPI STATELB★4★3
DON SAUNDERSUTAHDB★3★3
AKI OGUNBIYICOLORADOOL★4★3
SAMU TAUMANUPEPEBAYLORDL★3★3
DONOVAN GREENLSUTE★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES8%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS76%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#9NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
21OF 25 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9189COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1330 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST89% BACK89th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG89% BACK89th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR96%96th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST93%93th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE