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● LIVE|2018 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›TEXAS STATE›2018TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2018 FINAL
PAC-12|EVERETT WITHERS|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
TEXAS STATE126 FPIPAC · 2018 SEASON
TALENT
9FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1070 BC / 29
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs3.7-8.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-7.8
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
27MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1ARUTGERS—L 7-35571717-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 8HTEXAS SOUTHERN—W 36-20————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 15ASOUTH ALABAMA—L 31-41301010+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22AUTSA—L 21-253222+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 6HLOUISIANA—L 27-42262828-16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 13-15103333-21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20AUL MONROE—L 14-20121919-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 27HNEW MEXICO STATE—W 27-20855+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 3AGEORGIA STATE—W 40-303144+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 10HAPP STATE—L 7-38207878-66BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 17ATROY—L 7-12185353-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24HARKANSAS STATE—L 7-33384545-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET10NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
JAYLEN GIPSONQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
11
TYLER VITTQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
8
WILLIE JONES IIIQB SORET
★2—00%——
WILLIE JONESIIIQB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET99NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
23
ROBERT BROWN JR.RB SERET
★2—00%——
5
JAYLIN NELSONRB JURET
★3—00%——
41
LEDARRIUS HARRISRB SERET
UNR—00%——
34
ALEC HARRISRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
25
ANTHONY D. TAYLORRB SERET
★2—00%——
ANTHONYD TAYLORRB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
ROBERT BROWNJRRB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
23
ROBERT BROWN, JR.RB —RET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
MASON HAYSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
80
HUTCH WHITEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
24
CALEB TWYFORDWR SERET
★2—00%——
84
KORDELL RODGERSTE SORET
★3—00%——
1
JAVEN BANKSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
13
TREVIS GRAHAMWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
15
BLAKE ARAGONWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
3
JEREMIAH HAYDELWR SERET
★2—00%——
10
JAH'MARAE SHEREADWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
6
KEENEN BROWNTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
1
TYLER WATTSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
83
KELTON POWELLWR SERET
UNR—00%——
17
T.J. BEDFORDWR FRRET
★2—00%——
85
ELIJAH ROGERSTE SERET
UNR—00%——
82
BRENDON RUSHINGTE SERET
★2—00%——
49
HUNTER HEBERTTE SORET
UNR—00%——
80
CHANDLER SPEIGHTSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
28
LINCOLN WARRENWR SERET
UNR—00%——
32
CADE RATHBONETE —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
86
STONE HARRISWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
SHANE CARNEYWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
1
JAH’MARAE SHEREADWR —NO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TYRESE HEARDHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JACOBY HOPKINSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAKE LYNCHHS RECRUITOLB★3UNR
TYLER VITTHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
LADARIUS ANTHONYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TJ GRAHAMHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
PIERCE WITHERSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
BLAKE ARAGONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JALEN MOMERELLEHS RECRUITOT★2UNR
JAHMARAE SHEREADHS RECRUITWR★2UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT20 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN MITTIEKANSAS STATEDTUNRUNR
JEFF BANKSNOT LISTEDTEUNR—
DILA ROSEMONDNOT LISTEDSUNR—
GRANT LANZANOT LISTEDDTUNR—
GABE SCHRADENOT LISTEDTEUNR—
ANDREW ANEKENOT LISTEDCBUNR—
STEPHAN JOHNSONNOT LISTEDSUNR—
GABE LOYDNOT LISTEDILBUNR—
ELIJAH KINGNOT LISTEDWRUNR—
QUINN TIGGSNOT LISTEDSUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#107NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 29 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.7886COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST49% BACK49th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG49% BACK49th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR10%10th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE