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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG 12|JOEY MCGUIRE|—RECORD12-2|CONF—
TEXAS TECH#7 AP 6 FPIB12 · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
80FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
62%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
49%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#485 BC / 18
BC RATIO
24%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
12-1ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+31.5
12 wins against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE84
PERFORMANCE84
TALENT75
CONTINUITY62
DEFENSE100
PERFORMANCE100
TALENT75
CONTINUITY49
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
55MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF—W 67-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6HKENT STATE—W 62-14744+95BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HOREGON STATE—W 45-145777+92BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AUTAH#14W 34-10699595+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AHOUSTON#22W 35-11537171+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HKANSAS—W 42-17665757+42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AARIZONA STATE—L 22-26775656+43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HOKLAHOMA STATE—W 42-0651111+88BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AKANSAS STATE—W 43-20667070+29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HBYU#11W 29-7508787+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HUCF—W 48-9694444+55BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AWEST VIRGINIA—W 49-0553232+67BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 6HBYU#11W 34-7508787+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 1HOREGON#4L 0-23979898+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB45TAL92PERF46RET91ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
BEHREN MORTONQB SERET
★4—8468%+5—
15
WILL HAMMONDQB JURET
★4—6823%+3—
12
MITCH GRIFFISQB SEPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
★3★3528%+18HELD
10
LLOYD JONES IIIQB SONO SNAPS
★4—181%——
16
HOLDEN PHILLIPSQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB68TAL82PERF68RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
CAMERON DICKEYRB JURET
★3—9755%+17—
20
J'KOBY WILLIAMSRB JURET
★3—9444%+36—
35
MICHAEL HENDERSON IIIRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
0
QUINTEN JOYNERRB SEPORTAL · USC
★4★400%+35HELD
▾WR/TE64TAL73PERF63RET57ONE OWNERn=5 · 8 METRICS · 36 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
REGGIE VIRGILWR SEPORTAL · MIAMI (OH)
★3★49931%+14ROSE
5
CALEB DOUGLASWR SERET
★3★39831%+18HELD
7
TERRANCE CARTER JR.TE SENO SNAPS
★3—9550%+48—
3
COY EAKINWR SERET
★3—9325%+5—
9
JOHNCARLOS MILLER IITE SERET
UNR★39141%+16EMERGED
89
JASON LLEWELLYNTE SERET
★3★3526%—HELD
1
MICAH HUDSONWR JUPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
★5★4503%+15FELL
2
KELBY VALSINWR SERET
★3★3402%-43HELD
88
TREY JACKSONTE SORET
★3★3363%—HELD
14
BRYSON JONESWR SONO SNAPS
★4—362%——
17
LEYTON STONEWR SONO SNAPS
★3—331%——
19
T.J. WESTWR JURET
★3★3281%—HELD
18
ROY ALEXANDERWR SEPORTAL · INCARNATE WORD
UNR★3251%—EMERGED
8
TYSON TURNERWR JURET
★3★3251%—HELD
21
TRISTIAN GENTRYWR SONO SNAPS
★4—201%——
19
HAYDON WIGINTONWR SERET
UNR—191%——
13
PRICE MORGANWR JURET
UNR—140%——
19
MICHAEL DEVERWR SONO SNAPS
★4—110%——
5
MARQUEZ STEVENSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3—90%+21—
83
JACK ESPARZATE SERET
UNR—90%——
87
PREZTYNN HARRISONWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
86
SEAN ROBINSONTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
37
CURTIS MURILLOWR SORET
UNR—00%——
80
KAI POWELLWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL65TAL73PERF66RET56n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL79TAL77PERF79RET40n=9 · 7 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸LB77TAL74PERF77RET69n=9 · 11 METRICS · 54 OBS
▸DB70TAL74PERF70RET37n=10 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS9 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TRISTIAN GENTRYHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
MICHAEL DEVERHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
BRYSON JONESHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
LLOYD JONES IIIHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
CONNOR CARTYHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
PREZTYNN HARRISONHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
LEYTON STONEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
BROCK GOLWASHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DEANTE LINDSAYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN16 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAVID BAILEYSTANFORDEDGE★4★4
HUNTER ZAMBRANOILLINOIS STATEIOL★3★4
MICAH HUDSONTEXAS A&MWR★5★4
LEE HUNTERUCFDL★4★4
ROMELLO HEIGHTGEORGIA TECHEDGE★4★4
REGGIE VIRGILMIAMI (OH)WR★3★4
QUINTEN JOYNERUSCRB★4★4
BRICE POLLOCKMISSISSIPPI STATECB★3★4
TERRANCE CARTERLOUISIANATEUNR★4
COLE WISNIEWSKINORTH DAKOTA STATES★2★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
STERLING PORCHERVANDERBILTOLUNR★3
TY BUCHANANARIZONAOL★3★3
DALTON MERRYMANHOUSTONOLUNRUNR
ISAAC SMITHMICHIGAN STATEEDGE★3★3
HARVEY DYSON IIITULANELB★3★3
TRE'VON MCALPINETULANEDT★3★3
JORDAN SANFORDCALIFORNIADB★4★3
DEVYNN CROMWELLMICHIGAN STATEDBUNR★3
JORDAN BROWNNEVADAWR★3★3
SAM CARRELLRICEDL★3UNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES67%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS54%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#48NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
5OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8735COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2124 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
28TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
11
6
3
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.3 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +4 W
IMPROVED7 OF 28
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST62% BACK62th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG62% BACK62th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR56%56th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR91%91th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST37%37th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE