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● LIVE|2024 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|JON SUMRALL|—RECORD9-5|CONF—
TULANE27 FPIAAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
55FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
58%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
52%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#631 BC / 18
BC RATIO
11%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
9-4ACTUALvs10.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+17.5
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 10.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE85
PERFORMANCE85
TALENT62
CONTINUITY58
DEFENSE85
PERFORMANCE85
TALENT52
CONTINUITY52
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
50MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HSE LOUISIANA—W 52-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HKANSAS STATE—L 27-34548787-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AOKLAHOMA—L 19-34957676-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ALOUISIANA—W 41-33316161+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HSOUTH FLORIDA—W 45-10504141+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AUAB—W 71-20402020+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HRICE—W 24-10281919+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26ANORTH TEXAS—W 45-37433434+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 31ACHARLOTTE—W 34-3531212+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HTEMPLE—W 52-62555+63BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16ANAVY—W 35-015858+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28HMEMPHIS#24L 24-34487777-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
15DEC 6AARMY#21L 14-3517373-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 20AFLORIDA—L 8-33928686-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB59TAL99PERF59RET0ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
DARIAN MENSAHQB JURET
★2★480100%—ROSE
15
KAI HORTONQB SERET
★3★300%-15HELD
21
JAKSON JUDGEQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
8
KELLEN TASBYQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
14
DAGAN BRUNOQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB72TAL74PERF72RET90ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
MAKHI HUGHESRB SERET
★3★39863%+5HELD
3
ARNOLD BARNES IIIRB SERET
★3★37218%+16—
6
TREY CORNISTRB SORET
★3★3435%+34HELD
25
JAMAURI MCCLURERB SONO SNAPS
★3—404%+26—
40
GEORGE ARATARB SORET
UNR—50%——
2
SHAADIE CLAYTON-JOHNSONRB SERET
★4—00%-2—
46
TATE JERNIGANRB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE61TAL61PERF61RET64ROTATIONn=6 · 7 METRICS · 29 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
87
ALEX BAUMANTE SERET
★3★39444%-10HELD
4
MARIO WILLIAMSWR JUPORTAL · USC
★4★48837%+32HELD
1
DONTAE FLEMINGWR SERET
★3★38837%+6HELD
9
REGGIE BROWNTE SERET
★3—8532%-39—
85
ANTHONY MILLERTE SENO SNAPS
★3★37119%—HELD
83
BRYCE BOHANONWR SERET
★3—589%-10—
7
SHAZZ PRESTONWR SEPORTAL · ALABAMA
★4★3465%—FELL
18
JOSHUA GOINESTE JURET
★3★3434%—HELD
3
PHAT WATTSWR SERET
UNR—383%-40—
1
ZYCARL LEWIS JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★3—363%——
17
SIDNEY MBANASORWR SEPORTAL · UTAH
★3★3332%—HELD
16
GARRETT MMAHATWR SERET
UNR—201%——
15
KHAI PREANWR SOPORTAL · LSU
★4★4151%—HELD
13
TY THOMPSONTE SEPORTAL · OREGON
★4★300%—FELL
12
LUCAS DESJARDINSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
5
YULKEITH BROWNWR SERET
★4★400%-32HELD
88
BLAKE GUNTERTE SORET
★3—00%——
39
TREVOR EVANSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
82
LUKE BESHWR SERET
UNR—00%——
48
JONATHAN KAHNTE SERET
UNR—00%——
17
GUISEANN MIRTILTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
22
ALEX WIGGINTONWR SORET
UNR—00%——
28
SETH GALEWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
ERIK URBANIAKWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
89
DJ CICEROTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
26
WALKER DAVISWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL67TAL52PERF67RET58n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL69TAL64PERF69RET77n=12 · 8 METRICS · 63 OBS
▸LB63TAL49PERF63RET49n=6 · 11 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸DB67TAL45PERF67RET32n=11 · 6 METRICS · 60 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAYDEN LEWISHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
ZYCARL LEWISHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
E'ZAIAH SHINEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ARMANI CARGOHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DOMINIC STEWARDHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
GEORDAN GUIDRYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JAMAURI MCCLUREHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
REESE BAKERHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
KELLEN TASBYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JAYCE MITCHELLHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MARIO WILLIAMSUSCWR★4★4
SAM HOWARDAUSTIN PEAYLBUNR★3
TY THOMPSONOREGONQB★4★3
SHAZZ PRESTONALABAMAWR★4★3
CALEB RANSAWTROYCB★2★3
KHAI PREANLSUWR★4★3
JALEN GEIGERKENTUCKYCB★3★3
VINCENT MURPHYWESTERN KENTUCKYIOL★3★3
ADIN HUNTINGTONUL MONROEDL★3★3
ANTHONY MILLER JR.INDIANATEUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT33 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KEITH COOPER JR.HOUSTONDL★3UNR
DJ DOUGLASFLORIDADBUNR★3
DEVEAN DEALTCUEDGE★4★3
JARED SMALLARIZONALBUNRUNR
CHRIS BRAZZELL IITENNESSEEWR★3★4
KENTRELL WEBBHOUSTONDB★3★3
JAI EUGENE JR.WESTERN KENTUCKYDB★3★3
IVERSON CELESTINESOUTH ALABAMARB★3★3
JALEN ROGERSFLORIDA A&MWR★3★3
MICHAEL PRATTNFL DRAFT R7QB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES38%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS58%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#63NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8571COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2226 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST48% BACK48th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG48% BACK48th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR58%58th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST32%32th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE