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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|KEVIN WILSON|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
TULSA133 FPIAAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
33FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
49%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
47%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-12IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#540 BC / 28
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-9ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-17.5
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE8
PERFORMANCE8
TALENT56
CONTINUITY49
DEFENSE2
PERFORMANCE2
TALENT41
CONTINUITY47
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
33MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HNORTHWESTERN STATE—W 62-28————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7AARKANSAS STATE—L 24-28382323-18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HOKLAHOMA STATE—L 10-45624040-35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ALOUISIANA TECH—W 23-20261818-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ANORTH TEXAS—L 20-52433434-29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HARMY#21L 7-4917373-68BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ATEMPLE—L 10-2025550BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HUTSA—W 46-45525353-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AUAB—L 21-59402020-15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 14HEAST CAROLINA—L 31-38474545-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ASOUTH FLORIDA—L 30-63504141-36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—L 16-63421616-11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB35TAL29PERF35RET60ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
KIRK FRANCISQB SERET
UNR★37657%-21EMERGED
5
COOPER LEGASQB SEPORTAL · UTAH STATE
★3★37137%+8HELD
6
CARDELL WILLIAMSQB SERET
★3★3263%+31HELD
14
TIM CARPENTERQB FRTRUE FR
★3★3222%—HELD
9
STEPHEN KITTLEMANQB SERET
UNR—71%——
12
NATE RATCLIFFQB SORET
UNR—00%——
16
JACKSON JOHNSONQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
15
CARSON HORTONQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB33TAL58PERF33RET58COMMITTEEn=5 · 5 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
BILL JACKSONRB SERET
★3★37523%-15HELD
23
ANTHONY WATKINSRB SERET
★3—7523%+24—
9
LLOYD AVANTRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★37522%-33HELD
21
VIRON ELLISON JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
★3★37220%+34HELD
1
BRAYLIN PRESLEYRB SERET
★4★36011%-34FELL
21
CAM CROOKSRB FRRET
★3★350%—HELD
20
JAYCE MORGANRB JURET
UNR—00%——
32
KEIGAN POWERSRB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE36TAL57PERF37RET65ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
KAMDYN BENJAMINWR SERET
UNR—9933%+22—
87
LUKE MCGARYTE SERET
UNR★38743%+50EMERGED
8
JOSEPH WILLIAMSWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★38218%+30HELD
19
GRAYSON TEMPESTWR SERET
UNR—8017%-56—
25
ZION STEPTOEWR SEPORTAL · PURDUE
★3★37615%0HELD
82
CONNOR VAUGHNTE SERET
★3★37225%-35HELD
47
ETHAN HALLTE SERET
★3—6620%+44—
12
COREY SMITHWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3669%-7HELD
6
JACOB EMMERSWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3575%-30HELD
15
JACKSON FORDTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★35310%—HELD
89
JACK WRIGHTWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—291%——
84
JEWLYEN ROBERTSTE SONO SNAPS
★3—191%——
13
JEREMIAH BALLARDWR JUPORTAL · UTEP
★3★3150%+14HELD
15
JOSH SMITHWR SONO SNAPS
★3—150%——
42
TY VINSONTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—141%——
4
ALEX GREENWR FRTRUE FR
★3★3130%—HELD
25
ELI POTTSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
24
MATTHEW OGUNRINWR FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
14
DAMARI SMITHWR JURET
UNR—00%——
41
CAMDEN PECKTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
85
COLE GREENEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
48
DAEGEN JENSENTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL34TAL59PERF35RET41n=8 · 3 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DL48TAL33PERF48RET65n=7 · 7 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸LB39TAL38PERF39RET8n=9 · 11 METRICS · 59 OBS
▸DB40TAL52PERF40RET72n=11 · 6 METRICS · 57 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS21 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOSH SMITHHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ALEX GREENHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TIM CARPENTERHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
COREY SMITHHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ELIJAH GREENHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JACOB EMMERSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
WILL SMITHHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JAXON LEEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ZACH WILLIAMSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DEDAUNTE SCOTTHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN4 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MYLES JACKSONINDIANAEDGE★3★3
GAVIN POTTERARKANSAS STATELB★3★3
COOPER LEGASUTAH STATEQB★3★3
CHRIS THOMPSON JR.USCLBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAISE OLIVERTCUS★3★3
JULIEN SIMONUCONNLB★4★4
EVERITT ROGERSHOUSTONDL★3★3
DORIAN HOPKINSUTEPLB★3★3
XAVIER LANIERSAMFORDDB★2★3
DEVAN WILLIAMSHOUSTONWR★3★3
CARL CHESTERMARSHALLWR★3★3
JAYDEN SIMONUCONNDL★3★3
MARQUIS SHOULDERSHOUSTONWR★3★3
JEREMY JONESMARSHALLOL★2★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES30%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS47%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#54NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 28 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8529COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1224 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST68% BACK68th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG68% BACK68th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR41%41th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR60%60th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST72%72th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE