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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|TRENT DILFER|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
UAB124 FPIAAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
26FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
60%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
48%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1250 BC / 11
BC RATIO
6%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
4-8ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-11.8
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE36
PERFORMANCE36
TALENT40
CONTINUITY60
DEFENSE2
PERFORMANCE2
TALENT39
CONTINUITY48
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
52MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28HALABAMA STATE—W 52-42————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6ANAVY#23L 24-3816666-58BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HAKRON—W 31-28251414-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20ATENNESSEE—L 24-56898787-79BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HARMY—L 13-3114646-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AFLORIDA ATLANTIC—L 33-53412828-20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HMEMPHIS—W 31-24587272-64BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AUCONN—L 19-38306161-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8ARICE—L 17-24231212-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HNORTH TEXAS#24L 24-53318484-76BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HSOUTH FLORIDA—L 18-48567979-71BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ATULSA—W 31-24392424-16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB45TAL57PERF45RET76ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
JALEN KITNAQB SERET
★3—8475%+21—
5
RYDER BURTONQB JUPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
★3★36824%+10HELD
16
NATE ROGERSQB SORET
UNR—101%——
11
ADRIAN POSSEQB SORET
★3—00%——
9
TRACE CAMPBELLQB JURET
★3—00%——
10
CAM JENNINGSQB SORET
UNR—00%——
12
VANDEN DUGGERQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB45TAL39PERF45RET55ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
JEVON JACKSONRB SEPORTAL · UTEP
★3★39344%-21HELD
3
ISAIAH JACOBSRB SERET
★3—8128%-24—
28
SOLOMON BEEBERB JURET
UNR★38027%+30EMERGED
30
AMARI BRUNDIDGERB SORET
UNR—111%——
10
MARQUISE COLLINSRB JUPORTAL · DUKE
★3★300%—HELD
22
DREW PATTERSONRB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE40TAL40PERF45RET56ONE OWNERn=10 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
IVERSON HOOKSWR SERET
★3★39529%+24HELD
82
ELIJAH LAGGTE SENO SNAPS
UNR★39248%-26EMERGED
6
BRANDON HAWKINS JR.WR SERET
UNR—8823%+11—
85
ANTONIO FERGUSONTE JUPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
★3★37829%+22HELD
18
XAVIER DAISYWR JURET
★3★37515%-8HELD
0
CORRI MILLINERWR SERET
UNR★37213%+33EMERGED
88
J.C. SIVLEYTE SORET
★3★37021%-39HELD
8
KALEB BROWNWR SEPORTAL · IOWA
★4★3638%+6FELL
8
EVAN MCCRAYWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—606%-34—
12
JAYLEN ELDERWR SONO SNAPS
★3—555%-64—
9
AJ JOHNSONWR SEPORTAL · EAST TENNESSEE STATE
★3★3291%—HELD
44
JOSHUA RUBINTE SORET
UNR—201%——
87
CONNOR HARBYTE SERET
UNR—121%——
84
LAMAR WHITEWR SORET
★4—110%——
40
BRAYDEN JOHNSONTE SORET
UNR—70%——
81
ARON MARSCHWR JURET
UNR—00%——
80
MALIK MUHAMMADWR SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
13
CD GILLWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
14
JAILEN HOLMESWR SEPORTAL · OREGON STATE
UNR★300%—EMERGED
19
GABRIEL CLINETE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
86
AARON MATTINGLYTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
83
LEVI BRAYTONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL49TAL34PERF49RET54n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL39TAL38PERF40RET65n=9 · 7 METRICS · 36 OBS
▸LB32TAL35PERF32RET38n=9 · 11 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸DB36TAL42PERF37RET40n=13 · 6 METRICS · 64 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS8 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAYLEN ELDERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
AARON MATTINGLYHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JAMES STEELHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
GABRIEL CLINEHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
DONOVAN LAWRENCEHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
CD GILLHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
AIDAN PLATTHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ZACH JOHNSONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN17 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PERRY FISHERMARYLANDCB★3★3
DELVON GULLEYALABAMA A&MCBUNR★3
ELI ENNISNICHOLLSLBUNR★3
AJ JOHNSONEAST TENNESSEE STATEWR★3★3
BRANDON SNEHKANSAS STATEOTUNR★3
RYDER BURTONWEST VIRGINIAQB★3★3
KALEB BROWNIOWAWR★4★3
NIGEL TATEBOSTON COLLEGEDL★3★3
JEREMIAH VESSELUNLVS★3★3
PAYTON KIRKLANDCOLORADOIOL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT47 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRADY WILSONVIRGINIAOL★3★3
DELANO TOWNSENDOLE MISSOL★3★3
KELVIN HILLGEORGIA TECHCB★3★3
EVERETT ROUSSAW JR.MEMPHISLB★3★3
DERRICK SHEPARD JR.TULANEDL★4★3
ADRIAN MADDOXGEORGIASUNR★3
LEE BEEBE JR.INDIANARBUNR★3
AMARE THOMASHOUSTONWR★3★3
KAM SHANKSARKANSASWRUNR★3
DALLAS PAYNEFLORIDA INTERNATIONALTEUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES71%10 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS81%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#125NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 11 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8409COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2937 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST73% BACK73th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG73% BACK73th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR54%54th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR76%76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST40%40th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE