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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG 12|SCOTT FROST|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
UCF70 FPIB12 · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
69FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
30%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
26%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-12IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#792 BC / 14
BC RATIO
28%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+0.8
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE61
PERFORMANCE61
TALENT60
CONTINUITY30
DEFENSE73
PERFORMANCE73
TALENT70
CONTINUITY26
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
55MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28HJACKSONVILLE STATE—W 17-10203333+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HNORTH CAROLINA A&T—W 68-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20HNORTH CAROLINA—W 34-9783333+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27AKANSAS STATE—L 20-34667070-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HKANSAS—L 20-27665757-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11ACINCINNATI—L 11-20475959-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HWEST VIRGINIA—W 45-13553232+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ABAYLOR—L 3-30754848-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 7HHOUSTON#22L 27-30537171-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15ATEXAS TECH#7L 9-48809999-55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HOKLAHOMA STATE—W 17-14651111+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ABYU#11L 21-41508787-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB62TAL61PERF62RET2ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
TAYVEN JACKSONQB SEPORTAL · INDIANA
★4★38377%+6FELL
2
CAM FANCHERQB SEPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
★3★36220%-7HELD
11
JACURRI BROWNQB SERET
★4★4232%-36HELD
17
BROCK HANSELQB JURET
UNR—101%——
▾RB49TAL78PERF49RET55ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
MYLES MONTGOMERYRB SERET
★3★39355%+17HELD
5
JADEN NIXONRB SEPORTAL · WESTERN MICHIGAN
★3★37933%+26HELD
35
AGYEMAN ADDAERB SONO SNAPS
UNR—497%-41—
23
STACY GAGERB SORET
★3★3445%-6HELD
32
TYLER WRENNRB SERET
UNR—60%——
4
TAEVION SWINTRB FRTRUE FR
★4—00%——
42
CHANCE NIXONRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE63TAL61PERF57RET10ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
83
DJ BLACKWR SEPORTAL · LIMESTONE UNIVERSITY
UNR★38823%-41EMERGED
7
DUANE THOMAS JR.WR SEPORTAL · CHARLOTTE
★3★38823%-5HELD
9
WADEN CHARLESWR SONO SNAPS
★3—8521%-11—
0
DYLAN WADETE SEPORTAL · MARYLAND
★3★38342%+35HELD
16
KYLAN FOXTE JURET
★4★37226%+6FELL
3
MARCUS BURKEWR SEPORTAL · FLORIDA
★4★36911%+5FELL
13
CHRIS DOMERCANTWR SEPORTAL · CHATTANOOGA
UNR★36810%+6EMERGED
80
MAX DRAGTE JUPORTAL · APP STATE
★3★36621%-43HELD
2
CARL JENKINSWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3648%-62HELD
13
CALEB ROLLERSONWR SORET
UNR—463%——
18
CADEN PIENINGTE FRTRUE FR
★3—446%——
84
THOMAS WADSWORTHTE SERET
UNR—363%——
82
JORDYN BRIDGEWATERWR SORET
★3—201%——
83
DALLAN COLEMANTE SENO SNAPS
UNR★4191%—EMERGED
87
DWARTNEY WORTHAMWR JURET
UNR—00%——
8
BREDELL RICHARDSONWR SORET
★4★300%—FELL
9
DAVI BELFORTWR SOPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
★3★300%—HELD
6
RIC'DARIOUS FARMERWR SOPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
★4★300%-42FELL
85
CARSON HINSHAWWR SORET
UNR—00%——
39
ANDREA PARISIWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
ZACK PALMERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
86
CHASE HINSHAWWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL58TAL56PERF58RET47n=9 · 3 METRICS · 25 OBS
▸DL57TAL70PERF57RET46n=10 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB46TAL69PERF46RET2n=5 · 10 METRICS · 36 OBS
▸DB49TAL70PERF49RET39n=6 · 6 METRICS · 32 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS9 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TAEVION SWINTHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
TONY WILLIAMS JR.HS RECRUITS★4UNR
RUKEEM STROUDHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
RYSHAWN PERRYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CARL JENKINS JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
WADEN CHARLESHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CADEN PIENINGHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
MALAKHI BOONEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JAQUEZ JOINERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN16 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SINCERE EDWARDSPITTSBURGHEDGE★3★4
CARTER MILLERUL MONROEIOLUNR★4
JAYDEN BELLAMYSYRACUSECB★3★3
DYLAN WADEMARYLANDTE★3★3
LEWIS CARTEROKLAHOMALB★4★3
MARCUS BURKEFLORIDAWR★4★3
AYMERIC KOUMBAMICHIGANEDGE★3★3
JAYDEN MCDONALDVIRGINIA TECHLB★3★3
COLE KOZLOWSKICOLGATELBUNR★3
HORACE LOCKETTGEORGIA TECHDL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT46 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ADRIAN MEDLEYFLORIDA STATEOL★3★3
MARCELLUS MARSHALLMINNESOTAOL★3★3
CADEN KITLERARKANSASOL★3★3
XE'REE ALEXANDERWASHINGTONLB★3★3
LEE HUNTERTEXAS TECHDL★4★4
RANDY PITTMANFLORIDA STATETE★3UNR
CHASEN JOHNSONUSCCB★3★3
MATTHEW ALEXANDERGEORGIA TECHDL★3★3
CHAUNCEY MAGWOODPURDUEWR★3★3
XAVIER TOWNSENDIOWA STATEWR★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES80%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS97%12 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#79NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8759COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3850 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST50% BACK50th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG50% BACK50th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR47%47th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR2%2th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST39%39th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE