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● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›UCLA›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG TEN|CHIP KELLY|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
UCLA35 FPIB1G · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
82FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
61%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
87%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#373 BC / 17
BC RATIO
29%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+7.7
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE52
PERFORMANCE52
TALENT63
CONTINUITY61
DEFENSE93
PERFORMANCE93
TALENT70
CONTINUITY87
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
55MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HCOASTAL CAROLINA—W 27-13394949+31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9ASAN DIEGO STATE—W 35-10262222+58BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HNORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL—W 59-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 23AUTAH—L 7-14777777+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HWASHINGTON STATE—W 25-17466363+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AOREGON STATE—L 24-36618686-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21ASTANFORD—W 42-7741919+61BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HCOLORADO—W 28-16753939+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AARIZONA#11L 10-27708787-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HARIZONA STATE—L 7-17692020+60BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AUSC—W 38-20957878+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HCALIFORNIA—L 7-33685050+30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 16ABOISE STATE—W 35-22486767+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB42TAL89PERF42RET37ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
DANTE MOOREQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★47551%+6ROSE
4
ETHAN GARBERSQB SERET
★4★37036%+29FELL
9
COLLIN SCHLEEQB JUPORTAL · KENT STATE
★3★35213%+4HELD
11
CHASE GRIFFINQB SERET
★3—121%+7—
16
JUSTYN MARTINQB SERET
★4★300%—FELL
12
LUKE DUNCANQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB58TAL75PERF58RET53ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
27
T.J. HARDENRB SERET
★3—9441%+22—
33
CARSON STEELERB JUPORTAL · BALL STATE
UNR★49341%+1EMERGED
22
KEEGAN JONESRB SERET
★2★3568%+33ROSE
23
ANTHONY ADKINSRB SEPORTAL · ARMY
★3★3495%+7HELD
7
COLSON YANKOFFRB SERET
★4—393%+15—
26
BRIAN KOWALLRB JURET
UNR—00%——
32
TROY LEIGBERRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
21
ISAIAH CARLSONRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
30
MINAYA OLIVORB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
31
DESHUN MURRELLRB JURET
★3★400%—ROSE
▾WR/TE53TAL69PERF49RET48ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
J. MICHAEL STURDIVANTWR SENO SNAPS
★4—9728%0—
17
LOGAN LOYAWR SERET
★4★39124%+9FELL
88
MOLIKI MATAVAOTE SEPORTAL · OREGON
★4★39041%+13FELL
20
CARSEN RYANTE SERET
★4★38332%+15FELL
81
KYLE FORDWR SEPORTAL · USC
★4★37816%+4FELL
81
HUDSON HABERMEHLTE SERET
UNR—7123%+14—
4
KAM BROWNWR SERET
★4★37113%+1FELL
10
RYAN CRAGUNWR SERET
★2—6811%-37—
14
JOSIAH NORWOODWR SERET
★2—566%+16—
7
BRADEN PEGANWR SERET
★3★4402%—ROSE
89
MICHAEL CHURICHTE SERET
★2—343%——
87
GRANT NORBERGTE SERET
UNR★3251%—EMERGED
28
JACK PEDERSENTE SERET
★4★3191%—FELL
2
JERRY MCCLUREWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★3191%—FELL
11
BRADLEY SCHLOMWR SERET
★3★360%—HELD
4
EZAVIER STAPLESWR SERET
★3★360%—HELD
82
SAM SUMMATE JURET
UNR—00%——
37
ELIJAH RODRIGUEZWR FRRET
★2—00%——
35
DEVANTI DILLARDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
18
JADYN MARSHALLWR JURET
★4★400%—HELD
2
TITUS MOKIAO-ATIMALALAWR SERET
★4—00%-7—
14
CARTER SHAWWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
85
GRANT GRAYWR FRTRUE FR
★4—00%——
▸OL44TAL53PERF44RET76n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL81TAL65PERF81RET87n=8 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB68TAL74PERF68RET78n=6 · 11 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸DB61TAL73PERF62RET90n=8 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DANTE MOOREHS RECRUITQB★5UNR
JERRY MCCLUREHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
GRANT GRAYHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
R.J. JONESHS RECRUITS★3UNR
LUKE DUNCANHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
LARRY EDWARDS IIIHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
MONE MALAFUHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
TY LEEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
GRANT BUCKEYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TAVAKE TUIKOLOVATUHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
J.MICHAEL STURDIVANTCALIFORNIAWRUNR★4
CARSON STEELEBALL STATERBUNR★4
COLLIN SCHLEEKENT STATEQB★3★4
KYLE FORDUSCWR★4★4
JORDAN ANDERSONBOWLING GREENS★3★4
JAKE HEIMLICHERPENNSYLVANIAEDGE★2★3
OLUWAFEMI OLADEJOCALIFORNIALBUNR★3
ANTHONY ADKINSARMYRB★3★3
MOLIKI MATAVAOOREGONTE★4★3
KEANU WILLIAMSOREGONDL★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MATT SYKESRICEWR★3★3
CHRISTIAN GRUBBPORTLAND STATERB★3★3
ADAM COHENEASTERN WASHINGTONLBUNRUNR
TYLER MANOAARIZONADL★4★3
JON GAINES IIELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
ATONIO MAFIELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
MO OSLING IIIELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
STEPHAN BLAYLOCKELIGIBILITY UPDB★4—
AZIZI HEARNELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
DORIAN THOMPSON-ROBINSONELIGIBILITY UPQB★4—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES67%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS58%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#37NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8734COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
147 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST28% BACK28th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG28% BACK28th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR76%76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR37%37th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST90%90th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE