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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FBS INDEPENDENTS|JIM MORA|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
UCONN82 FPIIND · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
30FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
82%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
55%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1140 BC / 14
BC RATIO
13%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+11.1
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE65
PERFORMANCE65
TALENT51
CONTINUITY82
DEFENSE12
PERFORMANCE12
TALENT44
CONTINUITY55
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
27MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HCENTRAL CONNECTICUT—W 59-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6ASYRACUSE—L 20-27761616+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13ADELAWARE—L 41-4442020+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HBALL STATE—W 31-251733+58BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27ABUFFALO—W 20-17193030+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 51-10292121+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ABOSTON COLLEGE—W 38-23502929+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25ARICE—L 34-37231212+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HUAB—W 38-192688+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HDUKE—W 37-34586868-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HAIR FORCE—W 26-1604141+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 48-45412828+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27AARMY—L 16-4114646+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB71TAL51PERF71RET95ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
JOE FAGNANOQB SERET
UNR★29592%+25EMERGED
18
TYLER SMITHQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—5241%——
2
K'SAAN FARRARQB SONO SNAPS
★3—395%——
10
NICK EVERSQB SERET
★4★3313%-43FELL
12
TUCKER MCDONALDQB JURET
UNR—101%——
▾RB52TAL55PERF52RET93ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
CAM EDWARDSRB SERET
UNR★39763%+15EMERGED
4
VICTOR ROSARB SERET
★3★37120%-14HELD
1
MEL BROWNRB SERET
★3★3579%+34—
24
MJ FLOWERSRB JUPORTAL · EASTERN ILLINOIS
UNR★3455%-11EMERGED
7
MALICHI GREAVESRB SONO SNAPS
★3—242%——
26
SOREN RIEFRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—60%——
44
OLIVER LUNDBERGRB JURET
★3★300%+26HELD
39
ROBERTO SALASRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
27
CADEN HILLIERRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE63TAL59PERF62RET79ONE OWNERn=6 · 7 METRICS · 40 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
SKYLER BELLWR SERET
★3★39733%+28HELD
6
REYMELLO MURPHYWR SEPORTAL · ARIZONA
UNR★38521%+21EMERGED
86
ALEX HONIGTE SERET
★3★38245%+21HELD
81
LOUIS HANSENTE SERET
★4★47939%+3HELD
80
JOHN NEIDERWR JURET
UNR★37817%+24EMERGED
5
SHAMAR PORTERWR JURET
★4★47716%-6HELD
88
NADER CHIRCHITE SERET
UNR★35814%—EMERGED
13
CHRIS PARKERWR SEPORTAL · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
★3★3534%-3HELD
4
THAI CHIAOKHIAO-BOWMANWR JUPORTAL · RICE
★3★3514%-13HELD
6
JACKSON HARPERWR SERET
UNR—453%——
15
TERRENCE SMITH JR.WR SORET
★3★3382%——
30
DOMINIC TOYTE JURET
★3★3272%—HELD
42
MIKE BURTONTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—121%——
17
TEDDY WILLIAMSWR JURET
★2—60%——
5
JUICE VEREENTE SEPORTAL · NC STATE
★4★300%+22FELL
10
GRIFFIN KOCHWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
14
BRYCE ANDERSONTE FRRET
★4—00%——
9
NAIEM SIMMONSWR SEPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
UNR★300%+19EMERGED
87
CLEMENS RICHTERTE SORET
★3—00%——
83
XAVIER WATSONTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
85
DREW KRONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
25
DANIEL ROSEWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
RASHARD WILLIAMSWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
TRACE BRATTENWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL50TAL49PERF50RET85n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL39TAL49PERF39RET21n=10 · 7 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB44TAL43PERF44RET65n=6 · 11 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸DB41TAL42PERF41RET68n=8 · 6 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AUBREY MELVINHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
OSIRIS GILBERTHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
AXAVIER BRIDGES-BROOKSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
MAKIH JOHNSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
XAVIER WATSONHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
KSAAN FARRARHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
SAXTON SUCHANICHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
CHARLES JOHNSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
MALICHI GREAVESHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JOE MCGANNHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN14 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MJ FLOWERSEASTERN ILLINOISRBUNR★3
BRYUN PARHAMWASHINGTONLB★3★3
NAIEM SIMMONSSOUTH FLORIDAWRUNR★3
TRENT JONES IIIOWA STATEEDGEUNR★3
TY CHANNOTRE DAMEOT★4★3
TYQUAN KINGTEMPLELB★3★3
SAMMY ANDERSON JR.AUSTIN PEAYCB★3★3
CALEB BURTON IIIAUBURNWR★4★3
TAMARUS WALKERMARYLANDIOL★3★3
JAVONTE VEREENNC STATETE★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LANGSTON HARDYWAKE FORESTDL★3★3
MALCOLM BELLMICHIGAN STATEDB★3★3
PRYCE YATESNORTH CAROLINADL★3★4
JASAIAH GATHINGSBUFFALOWR★3★3
DURELL ROBINSONAUBURNRB★3★3
NICK HARRISEASTERN MICHIGANTEUNR★2
JARVARIUS SIMSWESTERN MICHIGANCBUNR★3
DANNY SHABANCOLGATERBUNRUNR
ALFRED CHEABALL STATELB★3★3
KALEN VILLANUEVACAMPBELLLB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES25%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS50%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#114NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8439COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2322 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST76% BACK76th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG76% BACK76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR85%85th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR95%95th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST68%68th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE