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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SUN BELT|BRYANT VINCENT|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
UL MONROE113 FPISBC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
6FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
27%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
44%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-9IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1140 BC / 11
BC RATIO
6%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs3.9-8.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-7.8
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE28
PERFORMANCE28
TALENT44
CONTINUITY27
DEFENSE34
PERFORMANCE34
TALENT37
CONTINUITY44
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
50MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HJACKSON STATE—W 30-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HUAB—W 32-6402020-11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ATEXAS#4L 3-51989595-86BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ATROY—W 13-9182929-20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HJAMES MADISON—W 21-19137070-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HSOUTHERN MISS—W 38-213511+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26ASOUTH ALABAMA—L 17-46325555-46BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AMARSHALL—L 23-28425757-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HTEXAS STATE—L 17-38286565-56BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AAUBURN—L 14-48887676-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AARKANSAS STATE—L 21-28382323-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HLOUISIANA—L 23-37316161-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB29TAL17PERF29RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
AIDAN ARMENTAQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—7278%-19—
14
GENERAL BOOTYQB JUPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
UNR★35322%-44EMERGED
15
ISAIAH VELEZQB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
9
LANDON GRAVESQB SERET
UNR—00%——
13
BROOKS ANZALONEQB SORET
UNR—00%——
16
REESE MOONEYQB FRPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB67TAL78PERF67RET3ONE OWNERn=3 · 5 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
29
AHMAD HARDYRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★49264%+17ROSE
2
JAMES JONESRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★36821%-42EMERGED
26
TAVEN CURRYRB SEPORTAL · UAB
★3★35511%+23HELD
26
BENNETT GALLOWAYRB SORET
★3—222%+17—
OZARRIO SMITHRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★2192%—EMERGED
23
CHARLIE NORMANRB SERET
UNR—91%-54—
24
CHRIS SMITHRB SERET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE59TAL48PERF57RET16ROTATIONn=9 · 7 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
80
NATE SULLIVAN JR.TE SENO SNAPS
UNR—7735%+24—
85
RYLAN GREENTE SERET
★3—7431%-30—
3
DAVON WELLSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—7124%-2—
7
ARTIS COLEWR SEPORTAL · FRESNO STATE
UNR★27022%-12EMERGED
0
TYLER GRIFFINWR JUPORTAL · UCF
★3★36718%-7HELD
1
JULIAN NIXONTE SENO SNAPS
★4—6523%——
2
JAKE GODFREYWR SOPORTAL · NEW MEXICO
UNR★36314%+34EMERGED
1
AMIR MCGRUDERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—5811%-63—
2
JAVON CAMPBELLWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—559%+35—
6
WESLEY CAMPBELL VITE SENO SNAPS
UNR—468%——
3
JONATHAN BIBBSWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3241%—HELD
15
STEVEN GORSKITE SERET
UNR—222%——
42
TALAN BROWNETE FRTRUE FR
UNR—70%——
88
CALEB GROCEWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
82
SI STOVALLTE SORET
★3—00%——
86
XAVION BUTLERWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
19
JUSTIN KIMBERWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
85
HUNTER HERRINGTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
7
MARC BRITT IIWR SERET
★4★300%—FELL
87
JAEDYN MCKINSTRYWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
89
TRENT GINNWR JURET
UNR—00%——
PARKER HILLWR SORET
UNR—00%——
28
JAEDEN LEDENTWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
TRISTAN WILEYWR SORET
UNR—00%——
30
ELI MORRISONWR SORET
UNR—00%——
81
QUAD HARRISONTE SERET
★3—00%——
18
BRET VINCENTWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
27
JOHN WALLACE HOLLADAYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
41
HUTSON HEARRONTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
43
MARK ALVIZOTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
48
GUNNER HALEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
46
TRAYCE MILLETWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
31
CHANDLER WILSONTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL42TAL30PERF42RET51n=6 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL39TAL62PERF39RET52n=8 · 7 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸LB43TAL34PERF43RET25n=6 · 11 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸DB59TAL31PERF59RET47n=8 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS10 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CALEB GROCEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
AMEYR ADAMSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
AHMAD HARDYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
NATE GREENHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JORDAN ROWEHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JIM OGLEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JAEDEN CALENDERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
CHANDLER WILSONHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JONATHAN BIBBSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JADEN ROWEHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN15 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TYLER GRIFFINUCFWR★3★3
GENERAL BOOTYOKLAHOMAQBUNR★3
REESE MOONEYNORTH TEXASQB★3★3
CARL FAUNTROYUABS★3★3
AUSTIN ACKELNEW MEXICOLBUNR★3
WYATT MCCLOURNEW MEXICOTEUNR★3
DEVON SMITHNEW MEXICOOTUNR★3
JAKE GODFREYNEW MEXICOWRUNR★3
WYDETT WILLIAMS JR.DELTA STATESUNR★3
CARTER MILLERJAMES MADISONIOLUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT45 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AJ WATTSMEMPHISDB★2★3
ZARIAN MCGILLLOUISIANA TECHOLUNR★3
KENARD SNYDERIOWA STATEDE★3★3
KEYDRELL LEWISMEMPHISOL★3★3
ADIN HUNTINGTONTULANEDL★3★3
TELLEK LOCKETTETEXAS STATEOL★3★3
STACEY WILKINSWESTERN KENTUCKYOL★4★3
LU TILLERYTULANEDBUNR★3
MAX HARRISTEXAS STATELBUNR★3
MICHAEL BATTONHOUSTONLBUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES80%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS98%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#114NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 11 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8321COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1625 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST24% BACK24th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG24% BACK24th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR51%51th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST47%47th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE