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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG TEN|LINCOLN RILEY|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
USC21 FPIB1G · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
95FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
57%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
60%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#813 BC / 27
BC RATIO
52%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
7-5ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.9
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE98
PERFORMANCE98
TALENT87
CONTINUITY57
DEFENSE42
PERFORMANCE42
TALENT79
CONTINUITY60
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
60MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 26HSAN JOSÉ STATE—W 56-28384242+36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
1SEP 2HNEVADA—W 66-142811+77BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HSTANFORD—W 56-10741919+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23AARIZONA STATE—W 42-28692020+58BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30ACOLORADO—W 48-41753939+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HARIZONA#11W 43-41708787-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14ANOTRE DAME#14L 20-48939595-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HUTAH—L 32-34777777+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28ACALIFORNIA—W 50-49685050+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HWASHINGTON#2L 42-52829191-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AOREGON#6L 27-36939898-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HUCLA—L 20-38828080-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27HLOUISVILLE#19W 42-28807575+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB54TAL99PERF55RET99ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
CALEB WILLIAMSQB JURET
★5—9487%+17—
7
MILLER MOSSQB SERET
★4★45213%+40HELD
16
MALACHI NELSONQB JUNO SNAPS
★5★371%—FELL
16
JAKE JENSENQB SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
9
ISAAC WARDQB JURET
UNR—00%——
28
GAGE ROYQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB61TAL90PERF61RET46ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
MARSHAWN LLOYDRB JUPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
★4★48947%+13HELD
6
AUSTIN JONESRB SERET
★3—8541%-10—
0
QUINTEN JOYNERRB SENO SNAPS
★4★4466%+32HELD
24
DARWIN BARLOWRB SERET
★3★3283%+22HELD
0
RALEEK BROWNRB SERET
★4★4272%+32HELD
28
A'MARION PETERSONRB JUNO SNAPS
★4★391%—FELL
5
MATT COLOMBORB SERET
UNR—60%——
▾WR/TE72TAL78PERF71RET58ONE OWNERn=10 · 8 METRICS · 56 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
16
TAHJ WASHINGTONWR SERET
★3★38720%+36HELD
87
LAKE MCREETE SERET
★3—8281%+17—
2
BRENDEN RICEWR SERET
★4—8117%+30—
3
DORIAN SINGERWR SEPORTAL · ARIZONA
★3★47514%+18ROSE
11
KYRON HUDSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3—7112%-35—
1
ZACHARIAH BRANCHWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★46610%+21HELD
4
MARIO WILLIAMSWR JURET
★4★4669%+21HELD
2
MICHAEL JACKSON IIIWR SERET
★4★3607%+15FELL
0
DUCE ROBINSONWR SENO SNAPS
★5★4586%+14FELL
8
JA'KOBI LANEWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—524%-2—
6
MAKAI LEMONWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—432%——
18
JUDE WOLFETE SERET
★4★34210%—FELL
24
CARSON TABARACCITE SERET
★3—357%——
44
KADE ELDRIDGETE JUNO SNAPS
★3★3172%—HELD
44
JOSIAH ZAMORAWR SERET
UNR—170%——
85
JADEN MOOREWR FRTRUE FR
★2★200%—HELD
86
CJ WOODSTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
40
TY SHAMBLINWR JURET
★3—00%——
46
COREY NERHUSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
95
LUKE OTTETE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL45TAL90PERF46RET52n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL65TAL67PERF65RET41n=12 · 8 METRICS · 62 OBS
▸LB57TAL78PERF57RET52n=5 · 10 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸DB63TAL90PERF63RET79n=11 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZACHARIAH BRANCHHS RECRUITWR★5UNR
MALACHI NELSONHS RECRUITQB★5UNR
DUCE ROBINSONHS RECRUITTE★5UNR
MAKAI LEMONHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
BRAYLAN SHELBYHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
TACKETT CURTISHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
WALKER LYONSHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
QUINTEN JOYNERHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
ELIJAH PAIGEHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
MALIKI CRAWFORDHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BEAR ALEXANDERGEORGIADL★4★4
EMMANUEL PREGNONWYOMINGIOLUNR★4
DORIAN SINGERARIZONAWR★3★4
MARSHAWN LLOYDSOUTH CAROLINARB★4★4
CHRISTIAN ROLAND-WALLACEARIZONACB★3★4
ANTHONY LUCASTEXAS A&MDL★4★4
MASON COBBOKLAHOMA STATELB★3★4
TRE'QUON FEGANSALABAMACB★4★4
JACK SULLIVANPURDUEDL★3★4
KYON BARRSARIZONADL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT28 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RALEN GOFORTHWASHINGTONLB★3★3
COURTLAND FORDKENTUCKYOL★4★3
TUASIVI NOMURAFRESNO STATELB★3★3
KYLE FORDUCLAWR★4★3
MALCOLM EPPSPITTSBURGHTE★4★3
C.J. WILLIAMSWISCONSINWR★4★3
GARY BRYANT JR.OREGONWR★4★4
JULIEN SIMONTULSALB★4★4
MEKHI BLACKMONELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
BRETT NEILONELIGIBILITY UPOL★4—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES32%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS42%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#8NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
13OF 27 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9027COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1520 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST76% BACK76th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG76% BACK76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR52%52th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST79%79th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE