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● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG 12|KYLE WHITTINGHAM|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
UTAH25 FPIB12 · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
77FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
72%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#207 BC / 20
BC RATIO
23%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+4.8
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE39
PERFORMANCE39
TALENT66
CONTINUITY80
DEFENSE98
PERFORMANCE98
TALENT71
CONTINUITY72
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
65MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HFLORIDA—W 24-11907070+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9ABAYLOR—W 20-13672727+50BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HWEBER STATE—W 31-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 23HUCLA—W 14-7828080-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29AOREGON STATE—L 7-21618686-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HCALIFORNIA—W 34-14685050+27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AUSC—W 34-32957878-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HOREGON#6L 6-35939898-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HARIZONA STATE—W 55-3692020+57BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AWASHINGTON#2L 28-35829191-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AARIZONA#11L 18-42708787-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HCOLORADO—W 23-17753939+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23ANORTHWESTERN—L 7-14634848+29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB77TAL62PERF77RET96ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
16
BRYSON BARNESQB SERET
UNR★37773%-1EMERGED
15
LUKE BOTTARIQB SERET
★2★2233%—HELD
7
CAMERON RISINGQB SERET
★4—00%+18—
8
MACK HOWARDQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
0
STEVE SMEDLEYQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB48TAL67PERF48RET97ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
JA'QUINDEN JACKSONRB SERET
★4★49146%+12HELD
0
JAYLON GLOVERRB SERET
★4★38537%-31FELL
3
NATE JOHNSONRB SERET
★3★35824%+37HELD
2
MICAH BERNARDRB SEPORTAL · UTAH
★3★3497%+13HELD
26
CHARLIE VINCENTRB SERET
★3—404%+11—
24
CHRIS CURRYRB SERET
★4★4252%-47HELD
8
DIJON STANLEYRB SENO SNAPS
★4★3252%—FELL
27
DANIEL WOODRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—141%——
25
JOHN RANDLE JR.RB FRTRUE FR
★4★460%—HELD
33
HUNTER SCHROEDERRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE40TAL54PERF41RET71ROTATIONn=7 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
MONEY PARKSWR SERET
★3—9333%-18—
83
MIKI SUGUTURAGATE SERET
★3—9241%-43—
0
LANDEN KINGTE SEPORTAL · AUBURN
★3★38834%+49HELD
17
DEVAUGHN VELEWR JURET
UNR—8829%+8—
87
THOMAS YASSMINTE SERET
★3—7120%+20—
7
MIKEY MATTHEWSWR SENO SNAPS
★4★37016%-8FELL
4
MUNIR MCCLAINWR SERET
★3★36412%+17HELD
19
LUCA CALDARELLAWR SERET
UNR—464%——
18
EMERY SIMMONSWR SEPORTAL · INDIANA
★3★3403%+13HELD
88
DALLEN BENTLEYTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—373%——
11
MAKAI COPEWR SERET
★3★3312%-56HELD
5
MYCAH PITTMANWR SEPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
★4★4241%-11HELD
85
CODY CHRISTENSENTE FRRET
UNR—211%——
46
HAYDEN ERICKSONTE SERET
★2★2131%—HELD
89
NOAH BENNEETE SERET
UNR★3110%—EMERGED
80
BRANT KUITHETE SERET
★3—00%+42—
13
SIDNEY MBANASORWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
20
JETT MEINEWR SORET
★3—00%——
6
DAIDREN ZIPPERERWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
C.J. JACOBSENTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
45
KAIMANA HANOHANOWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
35
JOSH ROSEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
37
PEYTON RICEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
48
LUKE TUCKERTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL46TAL69PERF46RET85n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL73TAL68PERF73RET88n=10 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB53TAL66PERF53RET59n=5 · 10 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸DB61TAL78PERF61RET64n=9 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SPENCER FANOHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
CALEB LOMUHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
CJ BLOCKERHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
MIKEY MATTHEWSHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
JOHN RANDLE JR.HS RECRUITRB★4UNR
SMITH SNOWDENHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
DIJON STANLEYHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
MIKE MITCHELLHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
OWEN CHAMBLISSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ROGER ALDERMANHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MILES BATTLEOLE MISSCB★4★4
LEVANI DAMUNISTANFORDLB★3★4
LOGAN FANOBYUEDGE★4★4
LANDEN KINGAUBURNTE★3★3
MYCAH PITTMANFLORIDA STATEWR★4★3
EMERY SIMMONSINDIANAWR★3★3
BRITON ALLENUSCS★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT24 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PAUL MAILEBYUOL★3★3
CLAYTON ISBELLCOASTAL CAROLINASUNR★2
ANDREW MATA'AFASOUTH FLORIDALB★3UNR
CAINE SAVAGENEVADADB★3★3
ETHAN CALVERTCAL POLYLB★4★4
TYLER WEGISBOISE STATEDE★3★3
R.J. HUBERTELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
DALTON KINCAIDELIGIBILITY UPTEUNR—
MOHAMOUD DIABATEELIGIBILITY UPLB★4—
GABE REIDELIGIBILITY UPDE★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES28%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS44%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#20NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
7OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8824COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
818 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS
+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST78% BACK78th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG78% BACK78th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR85%85th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR96%96th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST64%64th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE