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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|SCOTTY WALDEN|—RECORD2-10|CONF—
UTEP125 FPIMWC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
27FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
52%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
34%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-13IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#700 BC / 29
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.2-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-7.1
2 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE0
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT29
CONTINUITY52
DEFENSE39
PERFORMANCE39
TALENT31
CONTINUITY34
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
29MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30AUTAH STATE—L 16-28184242-37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HUT MARTIN—W 42-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13ATEXAS#12L 10-27988888-83BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HUL MONROE—L 25-311044+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HLOUISIANA TECH—L 11-30164444-39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 8HLIBERTY—L 8-19392525-20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 15ASAM HOUSTON—W 35-171111+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 28AKENNESAW STATE—L 20-3343535-30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 27-30203333-28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AMISSOURI STATE—L 24-3872121-16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HNEW MEXICO STATE—L 31-3461010-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ADELAWARE—L 31-6142020-15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB45TAL35PERF45RET54ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
SKYLER LOCKLEARQB SERET
UNR★37754%-15EMERGED
16
MALACHI NELSONQB JUPORTAL · BOISE STATE
★5★37446%-48FELL
11
CADE MCCONNELLQB SERET
★3—00%+28—
10
CHAD WARNERQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB34TAL38PERF35RET64ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
20
ASHTEN EMORYRB SORET
★3★38747%-17HELD
14
HAHSAUN WILSONRB SEPORTAL · CHARLOTTE
★2★37529%+18ROSE
8
KAM THOMASRB SERET
UNR★35510%+17EMERGED
21
MARQUEZ TAYLORRB SORET
★3★3497%-57HELD
6
ELIJAH MCCOYRB SONO SNAPS
★3—487%-58—
20
JOSH BELLRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE51TAL37PERF48RET43ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 47 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
KENNY ODOMWR SERET
UNR★39123%+20EMERGED
7
WONDAME DAVIS JR.WR SORET
★3★38821%+25HELD
19
ERIC WILLIS IIIWR SEPORTAL · PENNWEST CALIFORNIA
UNR★38619%-26EMERGED
89
JOSH SCHUCHTSWR FRRET
★2—7455%+7—
15
TREVON TATEWR SEPORTAL · UT MARTIN
UNR—7212%-10—
88
TORIC GOINS JR.WR FRTRUE FR
UNR★26910%-15EMERGED
7
JAYLAN BROWNWR SOPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★3★3668%-42HELD
82
JUDAH EZINWATE SERET
UNR—6332%-25—
14
MARCUS TORRESWR SORET
★2—432%——
16
MASON FERGUSONWR SOPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
★3★3392%—HELD
12
JET THOMPSONWR SEPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
UNR★3372%+37EMERGED
81
LUKA MATAMOROSTE FRRET
★3—366%——
18
RAFEALD CAMPBELLWR SORET
★3—301%——
86
JORDAN ANDRUSTE FRTRUE FR
★3—203%——
0
ASHTON NICKELBERRYWR SERET
UNR★3201%-51EMERGED
13
NIK HENRYWR SONO SNAPS
★3—110%——
85
KAI PRUITTWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
3
JADEN SMITHWR SERET
★3★300%-21HELD
84
ARAMONI RHONEWR JUPORTAL · ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
★3★300%—HELD
26
CADEN HARRISWR SORET
UNR—00%——
4
CASH CHEEKSTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
24
CJ SIMONWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
25
ZO HILLWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL39TAL22PERF39RET56n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL52TAL35PERF52RET41n=6 · 7 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸LB54TAL19PERF54RET16n=9 · 11 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸DB47TAL42PERF47RET40n=10 · 8 METRICS · 58 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ALLEN GANTHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JAMAL FRILOTHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DARNELL WILLIAMSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ELIJAH MCCOYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CJ SIMONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TJ TILLMANHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JORDAN ANDRUSHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
RYLAND BRADFORDHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
GRANT STEWARTHS RECRUITS★3UNR
NIK HENRYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MALACHI NELSONBOISE STATEQB★5★3
ASHAAD HALLSOUTH CAROLINA STATEEDGEUNR★3
JAYLAN BROWNMICHIGAN STATEWR★3★3
MARCELL BLOCKERFLORIDA MEMORIAL UNIVERSITYCBUNR★3
ORYEND FISHERWEST VIRGINIAEDGE★3★3
TYLER SCOTTKENNESAW STATEDLUNR★3
HAHSAUN WILSONCHARLOTTERB★2★3
MICAH DAVEYMCNEESELBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT42 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRENNAN SMITHMISSISSIPPI STATEOLUNR★3
JOSIAH ALLENUC DAVISDBUNR★3
MO WESTMORELANDTULANELBUNR★3
OSCAR MOORESACRAMENTO STATELBUNR★3
KYRAN DUHONOKLAHOMA STATEDL★3★3
AMIER BOYDTEXAS TECHCB★2UNR
JEVON JACKSONUABRB★3★3
JAYLON SHELTONPRAIRIE VIEW A&MCB★3★3
DILLION WILLIAMSFLORIDA ATLANTICS★3★3
AJ ODUMSNEVADACB★2★2
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES71%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS44%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#70NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 29 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8389COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2639 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST100% BACK100th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG100% BACK100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR56%56th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR54%54th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST40%40th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE