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● LIVE|2024 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|JEFF TRAYLOR|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
UTSA92 FPIAAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
52FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
66%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
73%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1231 BC / 13
BC RATIO
13%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
6-6ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+0.9
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE29
PERFORMANCE29
TALENT50
CONTINUITY66
DEFENSE53
PERFORMANCE53
TALENT47
CONTINUITY73
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
39MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HKENNESAW STATE—W 28-16522+51BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7ATEXAS STATE—L 10-49286565-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14ATEXAS#4L 7-56989595-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HHOUSTON CHRISTIAN—W 45-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5SEP 28AEAST CAROLINA—L 20-30474545+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12ARICE—L 27-29281919+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 38-24421616+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26ATULSA—L 45-463355+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HMEMPHIS#24W 44-36487777-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HNORTH TEXAS—W 48-27433434+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HTEMPLE—W 51-272555+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AARMY#21L 24-2917373-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23HCOASTAL CAROLINA—W 44-15342727+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB59TAL67PERF59RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
OWEN MCCOWNQB SERET
★3★39992%+15HELD
9
EDDIE LEE MARBURGERQB JURET
★3★3498%-31HELD
13
DEMATRIUS DAVIS JR.QB JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
2
JACKSON GILKEYQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
17
BRANDON TENNISONQB JURET
★3—00%——
▾RB32TAL55PERF32RET87ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
20
ROBERT HENRY JR.RB SERET
UNR—9139%-11—
10
BRANDON HIGH JR.RB JURET
★3★37822%+27HELD
2
KEVORIAN BARNESRB SERET
★3★37721%-12HELD
22
BRYSON DONNELLRB SEPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
★3★3599%-22HELD
24
ROCKO GRIFFINRB JURET
★3★3495%-28HELD
1
WILL HENDERSON IIIRB SONO SNAPS
★3—404%+33—
21
JUSTIN RODRIGUEZRB SERET
UNR—00%-46—
39
ETHAN LAINGRB JURET
UNR—00%——
25
FRANKIE ARTHUR JR.RB SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
42
MASON CULTONRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE57TAL43PERF56RET87ROTATIONn=12 · 8 METRICS · 75 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
CHRIS CARPENTERWR SERET
★3—9227%-17—
87
HOUSTON THOMASTE SERET
★3★38832%+39HELD
19
WILLIE MCCOY IIIWR SERET
UNR—8521%+11—
9
PATRICK OVERMYERTE SERET
★3★38125%+24HELD
3
DEVIN MCCUINWR SERET
★3★37918%+24HELD
5
DAN DISHMANTE SERET
★3—7722%+10—
84
OSCAR CARDENASTE SERET
★3—7520%+30—
84
JJ SPARKMANWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
★3★36811%-44HELD
0
DAVID AMADOR IIWR JURET
★3—648%+32—
10
JACE WILSONWR SERET
★3★3640%-46HELD
13
JAMEL HARDY JR.WR JURET
★3—617%-23—
15
DJ ALLEN JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★4—565%+22—
1
DE'CORIAN CLARKWR SERET
★3—271%+32—
81
DEVIN SCURATE SORET
★3★2191%—FELL
82
ELLIOTT BROWWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—110%——
11
JAREN RANDLEWR SERET
UNR—110%——
14
MEKHI ANDERSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3—110%——
83
EZEKIEL SALDANAWR SORET
UNR—00%——
34
NATE MARKIEWICZTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
10
ALPHA KHANWR JURET
UNR—00%——
87
JUSTICE HURTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
SHEA ADAMSTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL49TAL47PERF49RET34n=7 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL72TAL57PERF72RET81n=11 · 7 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB67TAL45PERF67RET83n=10 · 11 METRICS · 61 OBS
▸DB41TAL35PERF41RET61n=11 · 6 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
FRANKIE ARTHUR JR.HS RECRUITRB★4UNR
MEKHI ANDERSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
WILL HENDERSON IIIHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
KENYAN KELLYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
BRILEY BROWNHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ZECHARIAH ROBINSONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CHIDERA OTUTUHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JOSEPH UGWU JR.HS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
NATE MARKIEWICZHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
ELIJAH NEWELLHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DENVER HARRISLSUCB★4★4
KENDRICK BLACKSHIRETEXASLB★4★3
KAMAR MISSOURIRUTGERSOTUNR★3
IAN JACKSONALABAMALB★4★3
JAYLEN GARTHHOUSTONOT★4★3
DJ ALLENTCUWR★3★3
CJ JAMESNEW MEXICOIOLUNR★3
DEMATRIUS DAVISALABAMA STATEQBUNR★3
ZACH MORRISNEW MEXICOCB★2★3
JERMARIUS LEWISNEW MEXICOS★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT25 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KAM ALEXANDEROREGONDBUNR★4
DYWAN GRIFFINOLD DOMINIONCB★3★3
TREY MOORETEXASLB★4★4
AVERY MORRISCHARLOTTELB★3★3
PIG CAGELOUISIANA TECHDB★3★3
KAEDRIC COBBSBRYANTRB★3★3
ERNESTO ALMARAZELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
TERRELL HAYNESELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
RASHAD WISDOMELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
NICKTROY FORTUNEELIGIBILITY UPCB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES20%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS46%3 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#123NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 13 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8528COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1512 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST53% BACK53th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG53% BACK53th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR34%34th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST61%61th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE