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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
ACC|TONY ELLIOTT|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
VIRGINIA74 FPIACC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
56FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
74%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
63%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#880 BC / 16
BC RATIO
11%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs4.4-7.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-6.1
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE45
PERFORMANCE45
TALENT69
CONTINUITY74
DEFENSE30
PERFORMANCE30
TALENT54
CONTINUITY63
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
64MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HRICHMOND—W 34-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7AWAKE FOREST—W 31-30493030+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HMARYLAND—L 13-27643636-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ACOASTAL CAROLINA—W 43-24342727+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HBOSTON COLLEGE—W 24-14584848-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HLOUISVILLE—L 20-24748585-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ACLEMSON#14L 31-48978484-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HNORTH CAROLINA—L 14-41856464-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9APITTSBURGH—W 24-19696262-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16ANOTRE DAME#2L 14-35939595-63BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HSMU#12L 7-33829292-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AVIRGINIA TECH—L 17-37637878-46BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB44TAL79PERF44RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
ANTHONY COLANDREAQB SERET
★3★38782%+9HELD
7
TONY MUSKETTQB SERET
UNR★36218%+6EMERGED
9
GRADY BROSTERHOUSQB SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
13
GAVIN FRAKESQB SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
UNR★300%-22EMERGED
14
BOONE LOURDQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
18
ALEXANDER BRADYQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB64TAL73PERF64RET56ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
KOBE PACERB SERET
★3★39149%-17HELD
0
XAVIER BROWNRB SERET
★3—7828%+7—
3
NOAH VAUGHNRB SERET
★3—6616%-7—
34
JACK GRIESERB JURET
UNR—446%-46—
3
DONTE HAWTHORNERB SORET
★3—202%——
21
LANDON SPELLRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE55TAL76PERF52RET46ONE OWNERn=12 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
MALACHI FIELDSWR SERET
★3★49629%+19ROSE
16
TYLER NEVILLETE SEPORTAL · HARVARD
★3★39457%+12HELD
4
CHRIS TYREEWR SEPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
★4★37917%-4FELL
18
ANDRE GREENE JR.WR SEPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
★4★37414%-63FELL
44
SACKETT WOOD JR.TE SERET
UNR—6519%+3—
11
TRELL HARRISWR SEPORTAL · KENT STATE
★2★4659%+9ROSE
9
DAKOTA TWITTYTE SERET
★4—6417%-48—
2
JR WILSON JR.WR SERET
★3—617%-51—
5
KAMERON COURTNEYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3617%-19HELD
1
SUDERIAN HARRISONWR JURET
★3★3586%-17HELD
7
ELI WOODWR SERET
UNR★3565%-63EMERGED
7
JADEN GIBSONWR SORET
★3★3544%-47HELD
0
SAGE ENNISTE SEPORTAL · CLEMSON
★3★3467%-21HELD
8
TY'LYRIC COLEMANWR SERET
★3—412%——
26
ETHAN DAVIESWR SERET
UNR—301%-24—
15
TITUS IVYWR SORET
★3—00%——
94
HAYDEN ROLLISONTE SERET
UNR—00%——
5
DAVIS LANEWR SERET
★3★300%——
88
KARSON GAYTE JURET
★3—00%——
93
HENRY DUKETE JURET
UNR—00%——
84
DILLON TENNYSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
81
TEKAI KIRBYTE SERET
★3—00%——
27
KJ BRATTONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
89
JOHN ROGERSTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
23
TRISTON WARDWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
80
CLAIBORNE RICHARDSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
30
HENRY OMOHUNDROTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
TREVOR LADDWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL49TAL64PERF49RET99n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL40TAL52PERF41RET98n=8 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸LB47TAL57PERF47RET84n=6 · 10 METRICS · 30 OBS
▸DB58TAL55PERF58RET29n=8 · 8 METRICS · 42 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TYLER SIMMONSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
BEN YORKHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CHASE MORRISONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
KEVON GRAYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JEWETT HAYESHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
GRANT ELLINGERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
KAMERON COURTNEYHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
KEKE ADAMSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TRISTON WARDHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JOHN ROGERSHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHRIS TYREENOTRE DAMEWR★4★3
ANDRE GREENE JR.NORTH CAROLINAWR★4★3
TYLER NEVILLEHARVARDTE★3★3
KENDREN SMITHPENNSYLVANIACBUNR★3
TRELL HARRISKENT STATEWR★2★3
KEMPTON SHINEEASTERN MICHIGANCB★2★3
JAM JACKSONROBERT MORRISCBUNR★3
DORIAN JONESCINCINNATILB★3★3
SAGE ENNISCLEMSONTE★3★3
DRAKE METCALFUCFIOL★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT21 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAVE HERARDWESTERN KENTUCKYDB★3★3
LANGSTON LONGSOUTH FLORIDALB★3★3
OLASUNKONMI AGUNLOYEMARSHALLDL★3★3
MALIK WASHINGTONNFL DRAFT R6WR★3—
TAYVONN KYLEELIGIBILITY UPCB★3—
COEN KINGELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
AARON FAUMUIELIGIBILITY UPDT★3—
SAM WESTFALLELIGIBILITY UPCB★2—
JOSH AHERNELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
GRANT MISCHELIGIBILITY UPTE★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES37%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS53%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#88NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8561COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1317 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST72% BACK72th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG72% BACK72th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST29%29th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE