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HOME›TEAMS›WASHINGTON›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG TEN|KALEN DEBOER|—RECORD14-1|CONF—
WASHINGTON#2 AP 13 FPIB1G · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
82FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
84%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-12IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#268 BC / 27
BC RATIO
27%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs9.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+3.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD7-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+14.1
13 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE95
PERFORMANCE95
TALENT84
CONTINUITY79
DEFENSE70
PERFORMANCE70
TALENT70
CONTINUITY84
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE15 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
66MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HBOISE STATE—W 56-19486767+24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HTULSA—W 43-10401515+76BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16AMICHIGAN STATE—W 41-7813434+57BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HCALIFORNIA—W 59-32685050+41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AARIZONA#11W 31-24708787+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HOREGON#6W 36-33939898-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HARIZONA STATE—W 15-7692020+71BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28ASTANFORD—W 42-33741919+72BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AUSC—W 52-42957878+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HUTAH—W 35-28777777+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AOREGON STATE—W 22-20618686+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HWASHINGTON STATE—W 24-21466363+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 1HOREGON#6W 34-31939898-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 1HTEXAS#3W 37-31969696-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 8AMICHIGAN#1L 13-3491100100-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB82TAL75PERF82RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
MICHAEL PENIX JR.QB SERET
★3—9997%+22—
5
DYLAN MORRISQB SERET
★4★3263%-2FELL
19
ALEX JOHNSONQB JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
1
WILLIAM HASKELLQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
17
TEDDY PURCELLQB JURET
UNR—00%——
10
AUSTIN MACKQB SENO SNAPS
★4★400%—HELD
13
CAMDYN STIEGELERQB FRRET
★2—00%——
▾RB57TAL83PERF57RET30ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
DILLON JOHNSONRB JUPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★3★49857%+24ROSE
24
WILL NIXONRB SERET
★3★37420%+12HELD
20
TYBO ROGERSRB FRTRUE FR
★3★36311%-38HELD
28
SAM ADAMS IIRB SERET
★4★4589%-13HELD
21
DANIYEL NGATARB SEPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
★4★3252%+12FELL
6
RICHARD NEWTONRB SERET
★3—171%-3—
6
RYDER BUMGARNERRB FRTRUE FR
★2★200%—HELD
▾WR/TE72TAL74PERF74RET86ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
ROME ODUNZEWR JURET
★4—10033%+32—
2
JA'LYNN POLKWR SORET
★3★39930%+27HELD
37
JACK WESTOVERTE SERET
UNR—9448%+9—
11
JALEN MCMILLANWR JURET
★4—7915%+28—
5
GERMIE BERNARDWR SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★4★47613%+10HELD
83
DEVIN CULPTE SERET
★3—7526%+22—
88
QUENTIN MOORETE SERET
★3—6113%-24—
80
JOSH CUEVASTE SEPORTAL · CAL POLY
UNR★35912%+53EMERGED
5
GILES JACKSONWR SERET
★3★4565%+11ROSE
12
DENZEL BOSTONWR JURET
★3—493%-31—
89
GRIFFIN WAISSTE SERET
UNR★2221%—EMERGED
81
MASON WHEELERWR JURET
★2—170%——
0
KEITH REYNOLDSWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3170%—HELD
18
CAMDEN SIRMONWR JURET
UNR★2130%—EMERGED
3
RASHID WILLIAMSWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—130%——
84
JACKSON GIROUARDWR JURET
UNR—60%——
31
LUKE LUCHINIWR SONO SNAPS
★2—60%——
8
TAESHAUN LYONSWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★360%—FELL
82
OWEN COUTTSTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
87
RYAN OTTONTE JURET
★4—00%——
25
JAKE PARNAGIANWR SORET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
91
JOHN FRAZIERTE SORET
UNR—00%——
▸OL71TAL88PERF71RET77n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL35TAL70PERF35RET97n=12 · 8 METRICS · 60 OBS
▸LB39TAL47PERF39RET80n=5 · 10 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸DB64TAL80PERF65RET71n=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AUSTIN MACKHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
CALEB PRESLEYHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
TAESHAUN LYONSHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
CURLEY REED IIIHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
VINCENT HOLMESHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
RASHID WILLIAMSHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
ELISHAH JACKETTHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
LANDEN HATCHETTHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
ANTHONY JAMESHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
LEROY BRYANTHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DILLON JOHNSONMISSISSIPPI STATERB★3★4
GERMIE BERNARDMICHIGAN STATEWR★4★4
JOSH CUEVASCAL POLYTEUNR★4
JABBAR MUHAMMADOKLAHOMA STATECB★3★4
RALEN GOFORTHUSCLB★3★3
DANIYEL NGATAARIZONA STATERB★4★3
JOE MOOREARIZONA STATEEDGEUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT28 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TAJ DAVISCALIFORNIAWR★3★3
CAM WILLIAMSGEORGIA SOUTHERNDBUNRUNR
DANIEL HEIMULIARIZONALB★4★3
VICTOR CURNEOLE MISSOL★3★3
MYLES MURAOSAN DIEGO STATEOL★4★4
SAM HUARDCAL POLYQB★5★3
JAY'VEON SUNDAYABILENE CHRISTIANRB★3★3
CADEN JUMPERMURRAY STATETE★3★3
SAV'ELL SMALLSCOLORADOTE★5★3
KUAO PEIHOPAHAWAI'IOL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES64%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS18%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#26NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
8OF 27 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8560COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1022 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST85% BACK85th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG85% BACK85th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR77%77th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST71%71th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE